Abstract

This paper presents a general theory of causation based on the Structural Causal Model (SCM) described in (Pearl, 2000a). The theory subsumes and unifies current approaches to causation, including graphical, potential outcome, probabilistic, decision analytical, and structural equation models, and provides both a mathematical foundation and a friendly calculus for the analysis of causes and counterfactuals. In particular, the paper demonstrates how the theory engenders a coherent methodology for inferring (from a combination of data and assumptions) answers to three types of causal queries: (1) queries about the effects of potential interventions, (2) queries about probabilities of counterfactuals, and (3) queries about direct and indirect effects.

Citations