Abstract

How many serious nuclear reactor accidents will there be in the ten years? Some recent correspondence on this topic in the journal reviewed. The approach here uses data from operating experience, the more traditional "technical risk assessment". We derive predictive distributions for the number of future accidents, using a Bayesian approach. Whether or not (optimistic) prior information is incorporated, these are not reassuring. How many serious nuclear reactor accidents will there be in the next ten years? There has recently been some lively correspondence on this topic-in Nature, which seems worth bringing Traditionally, nuclear risk assessment has been carried out by subjectively assigning eXJ:lert opinion to the component events of a nuclear.accident, and then decision trees. This approach, known as "technical risk assessment", Ra.li)mll$S(m r(mort (l'taslnussen et 1975), and the German Risk Study (Federal

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