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|1288||Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases - Kahneman, Tversky - 1982|
Decisions with Multiple Objectives: Preferences and Value Tradeoffs
- Keeney, Raiffa
... a single metric (e.g., dollars or units of ecological productivity) that can be used to capture information about all of the attributes. For example, the techniques of multiattribute utility theory (=-=Keeney & Raiffa 1993-=-) can be used to construct a single “value” that encompasses the diverse array of attributes (Gregory et al. 1993). EPA could then conclude that the value of the system in question is X. However, EPA ...
|470||The Adaptive Decision Maker - Payne, Bettman, et al. - 1993|
|370||Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis - Morgan, Henrion - 1990|
|364||The Fifth Discipline - Senge - 1990|
|290||Administrative Behavior - SIMON - 1957|
|272||Giving with impure altruism: Applications to charity and Ricardian equivalence - Andreoni - 1989|
The Measurement of Environmental and Resource Values: Theory and Methods
...commendations, has not been reviewed or approved by the chartered SAB, and does not represent EPA policy. 1 There is a substantial literature on the theoretical dimensions of the method (for example, =-=Freeman 2003-=-, Dickie, 2003, Smith, 1991) 2 but relatively few convincing studies demonstrating it will work in practice. Examples of defensive expenditures include the choice of 3 automobile type (as it relates t...
Making Hard Decisions: An Introduction to Decision Analysis, 2 nd Edition
...stem being evaluated, again System A, is more valuable today than it was in the past (Table 1). A detailed overview of specific methods for addressing these tradeoffs, such as swingweights (e.g., see =-=Clemen 1996-=-) or even swaps (e.g., see Keeney 1992), are beyond the scope of this discussion. However, these and other methods can be used by individuals or in deliberating groups to place weights on the various ...
|168||Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980 - Lichtenstein, Fischhoff, et al. - 1982|
Groupthink: Psychological studies of policy decisions and fiascoes
...tmospheric chemists could redress. However, such interactions run the risk of “groupthink” – unjustified convergence of estimates due to psychological or social pressures to come closer to agreement (=-=Janis, 1982-=-). 98sStraw Draft Report in Preparation for June 12-13, 2007 SAB C-VPESS Teleconferences Do not Cite or Quote – 06/05/2007 Draft This draft is a work in progress, does not reflect consensus advice or ...
The methodology of evaluation
...ress, does not reflect consensus advice or recommendations, has not been reviewed or approved by the chartered SAB, and does not represent EPA policy. 1 effectiveness, and continued improvement (e.g. =-=Scriven, 1967-=-; Rossi et al., 2003) and 2 other refs) 3 Recommendation: Evaluate communications, to assess the effects of the 4 communication and how to improve them. 5 110sStraw Draft Report in Preparation for Jun...
|97||Vennix J: Group model building: Facilitating team learning using system dynamics - Vennix - 1996|
|85||The Contingent Valuation Debate: Why Economists Should Care
...ty of stated preference estimates of value. A good overview of the issues raised in this controversy is contained in the three essays published as a symposium in the Journal of Economic Perspectives (=-=Portney 1994-=-, Hanemann 1994, and Diamond and Hausman 1994). See also, Hausman (1993) and Freeman (2003) and references therein for further discussion. Strengths and Limitations: Strengths include the accumulated ...
|79||Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions - Hammond, Keeney, et al. - 1999|
|76||Overconfidence in case-study judgments - Oskamp - 1965|
How Maps Work
...ormation systems integrated with other ecological models where feasible, to represent the state of ecological systems and services. Consider best cartographic principles and practices (Brenner, ????; =-=MacEachren, 1995-=-). It is critical to communicate ecological processes as well as static information or states. The EPA Science Advisory Board review of EPA’s Draft Report on the Environment (US EPA SAB 2005) and seve...
|63||Choosing to Avoid: Coping with Negatively Emotion-Laden Consumer Decisions - Luce - 1998|
|60||The social psychology of procedural - Lind, Tyler - 1988|
|59||Culture as consensus: A theory of culture and informant acniracy - Romney, S, et al. - 1986|
Assessment of biotic integrity using fish communities. Fisheries 6(6
... a similar data aggregation approach, de Zwart, et al. (2006) noted that 2 ecological methods for measuring the magnitude of biological degradation in aquatic 3 communities are well established (e.g. =-=Karr, 1981-=-), but determining probable causes is 4 usually left to a combination of expert opinion, multivariate statistics and weighing of 5 evidence. As a result the results are difficult to interpret and comm...
|50||Moral Realism and the Foundations of Ethics - Brink - 1989|
|50||Barriers & bridges to the renewal of ecosystems and institutions - GUNDERSON, HOLLING, et al. - 1995|
|50||The Methods of Ethics - Sidgwick - 1907|
|47||Visualizing Geospatial Information Uncertainty: What We Know and What We Need to Know.” Cartography and Geographic - MacEachren, Robinson, et al. - 2005|
|44||Impacts of Biodiversity Loss on Ocean Ecosystem Services”, Science 314:787–790. the UNEP Division of Technology, Industry and Economics The UNEP Division of Technology, Industry and Economics (DTIE) helps governments, local authorities and decision-makers - Worm, others|
|43||Modeling the environment: an introduction to system dynamics modeling of environmental systems - Ford - 1999|
|41||The Determinants of Residential Property Values with Special Reference to Air Pollution. The Review of Economics and Statistics - Ridker, Henning - 1967|
|41||A constant error in psychological ratings - Thorndike - 1920|
|37||Elicitation of Expert Opinions for Uncertainty and Risks - Ayyub - 2001|
|37||The Value of Clean Water: The Public’s Willingness to Pay for Boatable - Richard, Mitchell - 1993|
|36||What Experimental Protocol Influence Disparities Between Actual and Hypothetical Stated Values?" Environmental and Resource Economics 20,241 - List, Gallet|
Valuing Environmental Resources: A Constructive Approach
- Gregory, Lichtenstein, et al.
...t when confronted with unfamiliar choice problems individuals do not have well-formed preferences and that responses to simple stated preference willingness to pay questions are therefore unreliable (=-=Gregory, et al., 1993-=-; Gregory and Slovic, 1997). For complex problems such as ecosystem protection, majority values or values held by the general population, given their current information which may be far from perfect,...
|34||Modeling complex ecological economic systems. Bioscience - Costanza, Wainger, et al. - 1993|
Valuing urban wetlands: A property price approach
- Mahan, Polasky, et al.
...ments (e.g., Ridker and Smith 1967, Smith and Huang 1995) living close to urban parks (e.g., Kitchen and Hendon 1967, Weicher and Zeibst 1973, Hammer et al. 1974), urban wetlands (Doss and Taff 1996, =-=Mahan et al. 2000-=-), water resources (e.g., Leggett and Bockstael 2000), urban forests (e.g., Tyrvainen and Miettinen 2000), and general environmental amenities (e.g., Smith 1978, Palmquist 1992). Given the large numbe...
|33||Environmental Protection Agency - Science Advisory Board (U.S. EPA-SAB). 2002. Workshop on the Benefits of Reductions in Exposure to Hazardous Air Pollutants: Developing Best Estimates of Dose-Response Functions An SAB Workshop Report of an EPA/SAB Worksh - S|
|32||Environmental Policy Analysis with Limited Information - Desvousges, Johnson, et al. - 1998|
|31||S: What are ecosystem services? The need for standardized environmental accounting units. Ecol Econ 2007
- Boyd, Banzhaf
...hods or facilitated dialogues would be useful methods to achieve this objective. In helping to frame the dialogue with stakeholders, methods such as the Environmental Benefits indicators (Boyd, 2004; =-=Boyd and Banzhaf, 2006-=-) or the Biodiversity Indicators (Grossman, 2004; Stoms et. al., 2005) may be very suitable for helping Agency’s site managers understand the ecosystem service potential from future uses and provide t...
|30||Using Mandated Speed Limits to Measure the Value of a Statistical Life - Greenstone|
|30||Signals or Noise? Explaining the Variation in recreation Benefit Estimates - Smith, Kaoru - 1990|
|29||Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy-makers and Planners - Ascher - 1978|
|29||Measuring natural resource damages with contingent valuation: tests of validity and reliability, Contingent Valuation: A Critical Assessment - Desvousges, Johnson, et al. - 1993|
|28||Environmental Value Transfer: State of the Art - Brouwer|
Recommendations for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: guidance on uncertainty and use of experts, NUREG/CR-6372
- Budnitz, Apostolakis, et al.
...ncy will have considerable random variation due to the exclusion of detailed analysis of fault-line dynamics; bringing faultline behavior into the analysis may lead to reductions in such uncertainty (=-=Budnitz et al. 1997-=-). Using uncertainty analysis to guide research priorities requires, of course, sensitivity to the feasibility of filling the gaps. Some data needs are simply too expensive to fulfill, and some method...
Private Preference for Collective Goods Revealed through Voting on Referenda.” American Economic Review
- Deacon, Shapiro
... estimated the value of the additional expected traffic fatalities). The logic of making valuation inferences from referenda and initiatives has been addressed in a few publications, most directly in =-=Deacon & Shapiro, 1975-=-; and Shabman & Stephenson, 1996. In comparing the valuations yielded by stated-preference approaches with those derived from public decisions, the studies typically show the inferences from public de...
|27||Dynamics in document design: Creating text for readers - Schriver - 1997|
|27||Integrated Assessment of Climate Change: An Overview and Comparison of Approaches and Results,” in Climate Change 1995: Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change - Weyant - 1996|
|26||Improving Validity Experiments of Contingent Valuation Methods: Results of Efforts to Reduce the Disparity of Hypothetical and Actual Willingness to Pay." Land Economics - John, Lucero, et al. - 1996|
|26||Modeling for Learning Organizations - Sterman, Morecroft - 1992|
|26||Rational analysis of a problematic world - Rosenhead - 2001|