Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory

Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory (2002)

Cached

Download Links

[www.lse.ac.uk]

by Mark S. Roulston , Leonard A. Smith

Citations:

20 - 1 self

BibTeX

@MISC{Roulston02evaluatingprobabilistic,
    author = {Mark S. Roulston and Leonard A. Smith},
    title = { Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory},
    year = {2002}
}

Years of Citing Articles

Bookmark

OpenURL

Abstract

Citations

6515	Elements of Information Theory - Cover, Thomas - 1991
4404	The Mathematical Theory of Communication - Shannon, Weaver - 1963
149	Verification of forecasts expressed in terms of probabilities - Brier - 1950
111	A new interpretation of information rate - Kelly - 1956
79	The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Methodology and validation - Molteni, Buizza, et al. - 1996
48	Making decisions - Lindley - 1971
37	A system simulation approach to ensemble prediction - Houtekamer, Lefaivre, et al. - 1996
34	A method for producing and evaluating probabilistic forecasts from ensemble model integrations - Anderson - 1996
30	Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method - Toth, Kalnay - 1997
27	A model for assessment of weather forecasts - Mason - 1982
27	Predicting Uncertainty in Forecasts of Weather and Climate - Palmer - 2000
26	Evaluation of probabilistic prediction systems - Talagrand, Vautard, et al. - 1997
24	Stochastic representation of model uncertainty - Buizza, Miller, et al. - 1999
23	The relative operating characteristic in psychology - SWETS - 1973
22	Uncertainty dynamics and predictability in chaotic systems - Smith, Ziehmann, et al. - 1999
21	Disentangling uncertainty and error: On the predictability of nonlinear systems - Smith - 2000
17	A Scoring System for Probability Forecasts of Ranked Categories - Epstein - 1969
12	Using ensembles for short-range forecasting - Stensrud, others - 1999
10	2000: Skill and relative economic value of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system - Richardson
9	Measuring dynamical prediction utility using relative entropy - Kleeman - 2002
8	2000: Joint medium-range ensembles from U.K. Meteorological Office and ECMWF - Evans, Harrison, et al.
6	Information theory and climate prediction - Leung, North - 1990
6	2000: Statistical methods for interpreting Monte Carlo ensemble forecasts - Stephenson, Doblas-Reyes
5	On the relationship between the accuracy and value of forecasts in the Cost-Loss ratio situation - Murphy, Ehrendorfer - 1987
5	A conceptual framework for predictability studies - Schneider, Griffies - 1999
4	is the Physical World so Comprehensible - Davies, ”Why - 1988
3	Random and systematic error in NMC’s short-range Eta ensembles - Hamill, Colucci - 1996
3	Quality/value relationship for imperfect information in the umbrella problem - Katz, Murphy - 1987
3	A note on the utility of probabilistic predictions and the probability score in the cost-loss ratio decision situation - Murphy - 1966
2	2001: End to end ensemble forecasting: Towards evaluating the economic value of the ensemble prediction system - Roulston, Hordenberg
1	Forecast evaluation. Probability, Statistics and Decision Making in the Atmospheric Sciences - Daan - 1985
1	2002: End-to-end ensemble forecasting: Ensemble interpretation in forecasting and risk management - Roulston, Smith