We develop a framework for trading in compound securities: financial instruments that pay off contingent on the outcomes of arbitrary statements in propositional logic. Buying or selling securities -- which can be thought of as betting on or against a particular future outcome -- allows agents both to hedge risk and to profit (in expectation) on subjective predictions. A compound securities market allows agents to place bets on arbitrary boolean combinations of events, enabling them to more closely achieve their optimal risk exposure, and enabling the market as a whole to more closely achieve the social optimum. The tradeoff for allowing such expressivity is in the complexity of the agents' and auctioneer's optimization problems.
|
4701
|
Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference
– Pearl
- 1988
|
|
541
|
Microeconomic Theory
– Mas-Colell, Whinston, et al.
- 1995
|
|
180
|
Bidding and allocation in combinatorial auctions
– Nisan
- 2000
|
|
153
|
A logic for reasoning about probabilities
– Fagin, Halpern, et al.
- 1990
|
|
127
|
Computationally feasible VCG Mechanisms
– Nisan, Ronen
- 2000
|
|
120
|
Winner Determination in Combinatorial Auction Generalizations
– Sandholm, Suri, et al.
- 2002
|
|
57
|
Recovering probability distributions from options prices
– Jackwerth, Rubinstein
- 1996
|
|
45
|
Rational expectations and the aggregation of diverse information in laboratory security markets
– Plott, Sunder
- 1988
|
|
39
|
de Vries and Rakesh V. Vohra. Combinatorial auctions: A survey
– Sven
- 2003
|
|
33
|
Anomalies: Parimutuel betting markets: Racetracks and lotteries
– Thaler, Ziemba
- 1988
|
|
31
|
Anatomy of an Experimental Political Stock Market
– Forsythe, Nelson, et al.
- 1992
|
|
29
|
The role of securities in the optimal allocation of risk-bearing
– Arrow
- 1964
|
|
29
|
Combinatorial information market design
– Hanson
|
|
21
|
Information aggregation in an experimental market
– Forsythe, Lundholm
- 1990
|
|
19
|
Extracting collective probabilistic forecasts from Web games
– Pennock, Nielsen, et al.
- 2001
|
|
19
|
Parimutuel betting markets as information aggregation devices: Experimental results. Social Science Working Paper 986
– Plott, Wit, et al.
- 1997
|
|
18
|
Decentralized computation procurement and computational robustness in a smart market. Economic Theory
– Brewer
- 1999
|
|
18
|
actions: A survey on price formation in election stock markets
– Wishes
- 1999
|
|
17
|
Informed traders and price variations in the betting market for professional basketball games
– Gandar, Dare, et al.
- 1998
|
|
17
|
Decision markets
– Hanson
- 1999
|
|
17
|
Could gambling save science? Encouraging an honest consensus
– Hanson
- 1995
|
|
17
|
Separating probability elicitation from utilities
– Kadane, Winkler
- 1988
|
|
17
|
Orange juice and weather
– Roll
- 1984
|
|
16
|
Good probability assessors
– Winkler, Murphy
- 1968
|
|
14
|
Information incorporation in online in-game sports betting markets
– Debnath, Pennock, et al.
- 2003
|
|
11
|
The real power of artificial markets
– Pennock, Lawrence, et al.
- 2001
|
|
11
|
How accurate do markets predict the outcome of an event? the Euro 2000 soccer championships experiment
– Schmidt, Werwatz
- 2002
|
|
10
|
The arbitrage principle in financial economics
– Varian
- 1987
|
|
8
|
Inducing liquidity in thin financial markets through combined-value trading mechanisms
– Bossaerts, Fine, et al.
|
|
7
|
de Finetti. Theory of Probability: A Critical Introductory Treatment (2 vols
– Bruno
|
|
6
|
Market allocation under uncertainty
– Dreze
- 1987
|
|
6
|
Markets as information gathering tools
– Plott
- 2000
|
|
4
|
Forecasting uncertain events with small groups
– Chen, Fine, et al.
- 2001
|
|
3
|
Compact securities markets for Pareto optimal reallocation of risk
– Pennock, Wellman
- 2000
|