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79
Dynamic Bayesian Networks: Representation, Inference and Learning
, 2002
"... Modelling sequential data is important in many areas of science and engineering. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Kalman filter models (KFMs) are popular for this because they are simple and flexible. For example, HMMs have been used for speech recognition and biosequence analysis, and KFMs have bee ..."
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Cited by 579 (3 self)
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Modelling sequential data is important in many areas of science and engineering. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Kalman filter models (KFMs) are popular for this because they are simple and flexible. For example, HMMs have been used for speech recognition and biosequence analysis, and KFMs have been used for problems ranging from tracking planes and missiles to predicting the economy. However, HMMs
and KFMs are limited in their “expressive power”. Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) generalize HMMs by allowing the state space to be represented in factored form, instead of as a single discrete random variable. DBNs generalize KFMs by allowing arbitrary probability distributions, not just (unimodal) linearGaussian. In this thesis, I will discuss how to represent many different kinds of models as DBNs, how to perform exact and approximate inference in DBNs, and how to learn DBN models from sequential data.
In particular, the main novel technical contributions of this thesis are as follows: a way of representing
Hierarchical HMMs as DBNs, which enables inference to be done in O(T) time instead of O(T 3), where T is the length of the sequence; an exact smoothing algorithm that takes O(log T) space instead of O(T); a simple way of using the junction tree algorithm for online inference in DBNs; new complexity bounds on exact online inference in DBNs; a new deterministic approximate inference algorithm called factored frontier; an analysis of the relationship between the BK algorithm and loopy belief propagation; a way of
applying RaoBlackwellised particle filtering to DBNs in general, and the SLAM (simultaneous localization
and mapping) problem in particular; a way of extending the structural EM algorithm to DBNs; and a variety of different applications of DBNs. However, perhaps the main value of the thesis is its catholic presentation of the field of sequential data modelling.
Efficient approximations for the marginal likelihood of Bayesian networks with hidden variables
 Machine Learning
, 1997
"... We discuss Bayesian methods for learning Bayesian networks when data sets are incomplete. In particular, we examine asymptotic approximations for the marginal likelihood of incomplete data given a Bayesian network. We consider the Laplace approximation and the less accurate but more efficient BIC/MD ..."
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Cited by 179 (11 self)
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We discuss Bayesian methods for learning Bayesian networks when data sets are incomplete. In particular, we examine asymptotic approximations for the marginal likelihood of incomplete data given a Bayesian network. We consider the Laplace approximation and the less accurate but more efficient BIC/MDL approximation. We also consider approximations proposed by Draper (1993) and Cheeseman and Stutz (1995). These approximations are as efficient as BIC/MDL, but their accuracy has not been studied in any depth. We compare the accuracy of these approximations under the assumption that the Laplace approximation is the most accurate. In experiments using synthetic data generated from discrete naiveBayes models having a hidden root node, we find that (1) the BIC/MDL measure is the least accurate, having a bias in favor of simple models, and (2) the Draper and CS measures are the most accurate. 1
Mean Field Theory for Sigmoid Belief Networks
 Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research
, 1996
"... We develop a mean field theory for sigmoid belief networks based on ideas from statistical mechanics. ..."
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Cited by 123 (12 self)
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We develop a mean field theory for sigmoid belief networks based on ideas from statistical mechanics.
Bayesian Models for Keyhole Plan Recognition in an Adventure Game
, 1998
"... We present an approach to keyhole plan recognition which uses a dynamic belief (Bayesian) network to represent features of the domain that are needed to identify users' plans and goals. The application domain is a MultiUser Dungeon adventure game with thousands of possible actions and locatio ..."
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Cited by 120 (10 self)
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We present an approach to keyhole plan recognition which uses a dynamic belief (Bayesian) network to represent features of the domain that are needed to identify users' plans and goals. The application domain is a MultiUser Dungeon adventure game with thousands of possible actions and locations. We propose several network structures which represent the relations in the domain to varying extents, and compare their predictive power for predicting a user's current goal, next action and next location. The conditional probability distributions for each network are learned during a training phase, which dynamically builds these probabilities from observations of user behaviour. This approach allows the use of incomplete, sparse and noisy data during both training and testing. We then apply simple abstraction and learning techniques in order to speed up the performance of the most promising dynamic belief networks without a significant change in the accuracy of goal predictions. Our experi...
MachineLearning Research  Four Current Directions
"... Machine Learning research has been making great progress in many directions. This article summarizes four of these directions and discusses some current open problems. The four directions are (a) improving classification accuracy by learning ensembles of classifiers, (b) methods for scaling up super ..."
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Cited by 115 (1 self)
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Machine Learning research has been making great progress in many directions. This article summarizes four of these directions and discusses some current open problems. The four directions are (a) improving classification accuracy by learning ensembles of classifiers, (b) methods for scaling up supervised learning algorithms, (c) reinforcement learning, and (d) learning complex stochastic models.
A differential approach to inference in Bayesian networks
 Journal of the ACM
, 2000
"... We present a new approach to inference in Bayesian networks which is based on representing the network using a polynomial and then retrieving answers to probabilistic queries by evaluating and differentiating the polynomial. The network polynomial itself is exponential in size, but we show how it ca ..."
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Cited by 113 (18 self)
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We present a new approach to inference in Bayesian networks which is based on representing the network using a polynomial and then retrieving answers to probabilistic queries by evaluating and differentiating the polynomial. The network polynomial itself is exponential in size, but we show how it can be computed efficiently using an arithmetic circuit that can be evaluated and differentiated in time and space linear in the circuit size. The proposed framework for inference subsumes one of the most influential methods for inference in Bayesian networks, known as the tree–clustering or jointree method, which provides a deeper understanding of this classical method and lifts its desirable characteristics to a much more general setting. We discuss some theoretical and practical implications of this subsumption. 1.
Speech Recognition with Dynamic Bayesian Networks
, 1998
"... Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) are a useful tool for representing complex stochastic processes. Recent developments in inference and learning in DBNs allow their use in realworld applications. In this paper, we apply DBNs to the problem of speech recognition. The factored state representation ena ..."
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Cited by 112 (8 self)
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Dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) are a useful tool for representing complex stochastic processes. Recent developments in inference and learning in DBNs allow their use in realworld applications. In this paper, we apply DBNs to the problem of speech recognition. The factored state representation enabled by DBNs allows us to explicitly represent longterm articulatory and acoustic context in addition to the phoneticstate information maintained by hidden Markov models (HMMs). Furthermore, it enables us to model the shortterm correlations among multiple observation streams within single timeframes. Given a DBN structure capable of representing these long and shortterm correlations, we applied the EM algorithm to learn models with up to 500,000 parameters. The use of structured DBN models decreased the error rate by 12 to 29% on a largevocabulary isolatedword recognition task, compared to a discrete HMM; it also improved significantly on other published results for the same task. Th...
Numerical Uncertainty Management in User and Student Modeling: An Overview of Systems and Issues
, 1996
"... . A rapidly growing number of user and student modeling systems have employed numerical techniques for uncertainty management. The three major paradigms are those of Bayesian networks, the DempsterShafer theory of evidence, and fuzzy logic. In this overview, each of the first three main sections fo ..."
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Cited by 107 (10 self)
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. A rapidly growing number of user and student modeling systems have employed numerical techniques for uncertainty management. The three major paradigms are those of Bayesian networks, the DempsterShafer theory of evidence, and fuzzy logic. In this overview, each of the first three main sections focuses on one of these paradigms. It first introduces the basic concepts by showing how they can be applied to a relatively simple user modeling problem. It then surveys systems that have applied techniques from the paradigm to user or student modeling, characterizing each system within a common framework. The final main section discusses several aspects of the usability of these techniques for user and student modeling, such as their knowledge engineering requirements, their need for computational resources, and the communicability of their results. Key words: numerical uncertainty management, Bayesian networks, DempsterShafer theory, fuzzy logic, user modeling, student modeling 1. Introdu...
FeatureBased Human Face Detection
 IMAGE AND VISION COMPUTING
, 1996
"... Human face detection has always been an important problem for face, expression and gesture recognition. Though numerous attempts have been made to detect and localize faces, these approaches have made assumptions that restrict their extension to more general cases. We identify that the key factor in ..."
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Cited by 91 (3 self)
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Human face detection has always been an important problem for face, expression and gesture recognition. Though numerous attempts have been made to detect and localize faces, these approaches have made assumptions that restrict their extension to more general cases. We identify that the key factor in a generic and robust system is that of using a large amount of image evidence, related and reinforced by model knowledge through a probabilistic framework. In this paper, we propose a featurebased algorithm for detecting faces that is sufficiently generic and is also easily extensible to cope with more demanding variations of the imaging conditions. The algorithm detects feature points from the image using spatial filters and groups them into face candidates using geometric and gray level constraints. A probabilistic framework is then used to reinforce probabilities and to evaluate the likelihood of the candidate as a face. We provide results to support the validity of the approach and demo...