... In this paper we present two general types of Gibbs samplers that can be used to fit posteriors of Bayesian hierarchical models based on stick-breaking priors. The first type of Gibbs sampler, referred to as a Polya urn Gibbs sampler, is a generalized version of a widely used Gibbs sampling method currently employed for Dirichlet process computing. This method applies to stick-breaking priors with a known P'olya urn characterization; that is priors with an explicit and simple prediction rule. Our second method, the blocked Gibbs sampler, is based on a entirely different approach that works by directly sampling values from the posterior of the random measure. The blocked Gibbs sampler can be viewed as a more general approach as it works without requiring an explicit prediction rule. We find that the blocked Gibbs avoids some of the limitations seen with the Polya urn approach and should be simpler for non-experts to use.

For each finite measure on [0

Let (B t (s); 0 s ! 1) be reflecting inhomogeneous Brownian motion with drift t \Gamma s at time s, started with B t (0) = 0. Consider the random graph G(n; n \Gamma1 +tn \Gamma4=3 ), whose largest components have size of order n 2=3 . Normalizing by n \Gamma2=3 , the asymptotic joint distribution of component sizes is the same as the joint distribution of excursion lengths of B t (Corollary 2). The dynamics of merging of components as t increases are abstracted to define the multiplicative coalescent process. The states of this process are vectors x of nonnegative real cluster sizes (x i ), and clusters with sizes x i and x j merge at rate x i x j . The multiplicative coalescent is shown to be a Feller process on l 2 . The random graph limit specifies the standard multiplicative coalescent, which starts from infinitesimally small clusters at time \Gamma1: the existence of such a process is not obvious. AMS 1991 subject classifications. 60C05, 60J50, Key words and phras...

Regard an element of the set \Delta := f(x 1 ; x 2 ; : : :) : x 1 x 2 : : : 0; X i x i = 1g as a fragmentation of unit mass into clusters of masses x i . The additive coalescent of Evans and Pitman (1997) is the \Delta-valued Markov process in which pairs of clusters of masses fx i ; x j g merge into a cluster of mass x i +x j at rate x i +x j . They showed that a version (X 1 (t); \Gamma1 ! t ! 1) of this process arises as a n !1 weak limit of the process started at time \Gamma 1 2 log n with n clusters of mass 1=n. We show this standard additive coalescent may be constructed from the continuum random tree of Aldous (1991,1993) by Poisson splitting along the skeleton of the tree. We describe the distribution of X 1 (t) on \Delta at a fixed time t. We show that the size of the cluster containing a given atom, as a process in t, has a simple representation in terms of the stable subordinator of index 1=2. As t ! \Gamma1, we establish a Gaussian limit for (centered and norm...

We propose a new hierarchical Bayesian n-gram model of natural languages. Our model makes use of a generalization of the commonly used Dirichlet distributions called Pitman-Yor processes which produce power-law distributions more closely resembling those in natural languages. We show that an approximation to the hierarchical Pitman-Yor language model recovers the exact formulation of interpolated Kneser-Ney, one of the best smoothing methods for n-gram language models. Experiments verify that our model gives cross entropy results superior to interpolated Kneser-Ney and comparable to modified Kneser-Ney. 1

Partition-valued and measure-valued coalescent Markov processes are constructed whose state describes the decomposition of a finite total mass m into a finite or countably infinite number of masses with sum m, and whose evolution is determined by the following intuitive prescription: each pair of masses of magnitudes x and y runs the risk of a binary collision to form a single mass of magnitude x+y at rate (x; y), for some non-negative, symmetric collision rate kernel (x; y). Such processes with finitely many masses have been used to model polymerization, coagulation, condensation, and the evolution of galactic clusters by gravitational attraction. With a suitable choice of state space, and under appropriate restrictions on and the initial distribution of mass, it is shown that such processes can be constructed as Feller or Feller-like processes. A number of further results are obtained for the additive coalescent with collision kernel (x; y) = x + y. This process, which arises fro...

Abstract: The class of species sampling mixture models is introduced as an extension of semiparametric models based on the Dirichlet process to models based on the general class of species sampling priors, or equivalently the class of all exchangeable urn distributions. Using Fubini calculus in conjunction with Pitman (1995, 1996), we derive characterizations of the posterior distribution in terms of a posterior partition distribution that extend the results of Lo (1984) for the Dirichlet process. These results provide a better understanding of models and have both theoretical and practical applications. To facilitate the use of our models we generalize the work in Brunner, Chan, James and Lo (2001) by extending their weighted Chinese restaurant (WCR) Monte Carlo procedure, an i.i.d. sequential importance sampling (SIS) procedure for approximating posterior mean functionals based on the Dirichlet process, to the case of approximation of mean functionals and additionally their posterior laws in species sampling mixture models. We also discuss collapsed Gibbs sampling, Pólya urn Gibbs sampling and a Pólya urn SIS scheme. Our framework allows for numerous applications, including multiplicative counting process models subject to weighted gamma processes, as well as nonparametric and semiparametric hierarchical models based on the Dirichlet process, its two-parameter extension, the Pitman-Yor process and finite dimensional Dirichlet priors. Key words and phrases: Dirichlet process, exchangeable partition, finite dimensional Dirichlet prior, two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet process, prediction rule, random probability measure, species sampling sequence.

Various enumerations of labeled trees and forests, including Cayley's formula n n\Gamma2 for the number of trees labeled by [n], and Cayley's multinomial expansion over trees, are derived from the following coalescent construction of a sequence of random forests (R n ; R n\Gamma1 ; : : : ; R 1 ) such that R k has uniform distribution over the set of all forests of k rooted trees labeled by [n]. Let R n be the trivial forest with n root vertices and no edges. For n k 2, given that R n ; : : : ; R k have been defined so that R k is a rooted forest of k trees, define R k\Gamma1 by addition to R k of a single edge picked uniformly at random from the set of n(k \Gamma 1) edges which when added to R k yield a rooted forest of k \Gamma 1 trees. This coalescent construction is related to a model for a physical process of clustering or coagulation, the additive coalescent in which a system of masses is subject to binary coalescent collisions, with each pair of masses of magnitude...

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A new class of random composition structures (the ordered analog of Kingman’s partition structures) is defined by a regenerative description of component sizes. Each regenerative composition structure is represented by a process of random sampling of points from an exponential distribution on the positive halfline, and separating the points into clusters by an independent regenerative random set. Examples are composition structures derived from residual allocation models, including one associated with the Ewens sampling formula, and composition structures derived from the zero set of a Brownian motion or Bessel process. We provide characterisation results and formulas relating the distribution of the regenerative composition to the Lévy parameters of a subordinator whose range is the corresponding regenerative set. In particular, the only reversible regenerative composition structures are those associated with the interval partition of [0, 1] generated by excursions of a standard Bessel bridge of dimension 2 − 2α for some α ∈ [0, 1].