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How many clusters? Which clustering method? Answers via modelbased cluster analysis
 THE COMPUTER JOURNAL
, 1998
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ModelBased Clustering, Discriminant Analysis, and Density Estimation
 JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
, 2000
"... Cluster analysis is the automated search for groups of related observations in a data set. Most clustering done in practice is based largely on heuristic but intuitively reasonable procedures and most clustering methods available in commercial software are also of this type. However, there is little ..."
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Cited by 275 (24 self)
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Cluster analysis is the automated search for groups of related observations in a data set. Most clustering done in practice is based largely on heuristic but intuitively reasonable procedures and most clustering methods available in commercial software are also of this type. However, there is little systematic guidance associated with these methods for solving important practical questions that arise in cluster analysis, such as \How many clusters are there?", "Which clustering method should be used?" and \How should outliers be handled?". We outline a general methodology for modelbased clustering that provides a principled statistical approach to these issues. We also show that this can be useful for other problems in multivariate analysis, such as discriminant analysis and multivariate density estimation. We give examples from medical diagnosis, mineeld detection, cluster recovery from noisy data, and spatial density estimation. Finally, we mention limitations of the methodology, a...
Has the U.S. Economy Become More Stable? A Bayesian Approach Based on a MarkovSwitching Model of Business Cycle
, 1999
"... We hope to be able to provide answers to the following questions: 1) Has there been a structural break in postwar U.S. real GDP growth toward more stabilization? 2) If so, when would it have been? 3) What's the nature of the structural break? For this purpose, we employ a Bayesian approach to d ..."
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Cited by 268 (13 self)
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We hope to be able to provide answers to the following questions: 1) Has there been a structural break in postwar U.S. real GDP growth toward more stabilization? 2) If so, when would it have been? 3) What's the nature of the structural break? For this purpose, we employ a Bayesian approach to dealing with structural break at an unknown changepoint in a Markovswitching model of business cycle. Empirical results suggest that there has been a structural break in U.S. real GDP growth toward more stabilization, with the posterior mode of the break date around 1984:1. Furthermore, we #nd a narrowing gap between growth rates during recessions and booms is at least as important as a decline in the volatility of shocks. Key Words: Bayes Factor, Gibbs sampling, Marginal Likelihood, MarkovSwitching, Stabilization, Structural Break. JEL Classi#cations: C11, C12, C22, E32. 1. Introduction In the literature, the issue of postwar stabilization of the U.S. economy relative to the prewar period has...
Bayesian Model Selection in Social Research (with Discussion by Andrew Gelman & Donald B. Rubin, and Robert M. Hauser, and a Rejoinder)
 SOCIOLOGICAL METHODOLOGY 1995, EDITED BY PETER V. MARSDEN, CAMBRIDGE,; MASS.: BLACKWELLS.
, 1995
"... It is argued that Pvalues and the tests based upon them give unsatisfactory results, especially in large samples. It is shown that, in regression, when there are many candidate independent variables, standard variable selection procedures can give very misleading results. Also, by selecting a singl ..."
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Cited by 266 (19 self)
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It is argued that Pvalues and the tests based upon them give unsatisfactory results, especially in large samples. It is shown that, in regression, when there are many candidate independent variables, standard variable selection procedures can give very misleading results. Also, by selecting a single model, they ignore model uncertainty and so underestimate the uncertainty about quantities of interest. The Bayesian approach to hypothesis testing, model selection and accounting for model uncertainty is presented. Implementing this is straightforward using the simple and accurate BIC approximation, and can be done using the output from standard software. Specific results are presented for most of the types of model commonly used in sociology. It is shown that this approach overcomes the difficulties with P values and standard model selection procedures based on them. It also allows easy comparison of nonnested models, and permits the quantification of the evidence for a null hypothesis...
Survey of clustering data mining techniques
, 2002
"... Accrue Software, Inc. Clustering is a division of data into groups of similar objects. Representing the data by fewer clusters necessarily loses certain fine details, but achieves simplification. It models data by its clusters. Data modeling puts clustering in a historical perspective rooted in math ..."
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Cited by 260 (0 self)
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Accrue Software, Inc. Clustering is a division of data into groups of similar objects. Representing the data by fewer clusters necessarily loses certain fine details, but achieves simplification. It models data by its clusters. Data modeling puts clustering in a historical perspective rooted in mathematics, statistics, and numerical analysis. From a machine learning perspective clusters correspond to hidden patterns, the search for clusters is unsupervised learning, and the resulting system represents a data concept. From a practical perspective clustering plays an outstanding role in data mining applications such as scientific data exploration, information retrieval and text mining, spatial database applications, Web analysis, CRM, marketing, medical diagnostics, computational biology, and many others. Clustering is the subject of active research in several fields such as statistics, pattern recognition, and machine learning. This survey focuses on clustering in data mining. Data mining adds to clustering the complications of very large datasets with very many attributes of different types. This imposes unique
Using simulation methods for Bayesian econometric models: Inference, development and communication
 Econometric Review
, 1999
"... This paper surveys the fundamental principles of subjective Bayesian inference in econometrics and the implementation of those principles using posterior simulation methods. The emphasis is on the combination of models and the development of predictive distributions. Moving beyond conditioning on a ..."
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Cited by 207 (15 self)
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This paper surveys the fundamental principles of subjective Bayesian inference in econometrics and the implementation of those principles using posterior simulation methods. The emphasis is on the combination of models and the development of predictive distributions. Moving beyond conditioning on a fixed number of completely specified models, the paper introduces subjective Bayesian tools for formal comparison of these models with as yet incompletely specified models. The paper then shows how posterior simulators can facilitate communication between investigators (for example, econometricians) on the one hand and remote clients (for example, decision makers) on the other, enabling clients to vary the prior distributions and functions of interest employed by investigators. A theme of the paper is the practicality of subjective Bayesian methods. To this end, the paper describes publicly available software for Bayesian inference, model development, and communication and provides illustrations using two simple econometric models. *This paper was originally prepared for the Australasian meetings of the Econometric Society in Melbourne, Australia,
Hierarchical topic models and the nested Chinese restaurant process
 Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems
, 2004
"... We address the problem of learning topic hierarchies from data. The model selection problem in this domain is dauntingâ€”which of the large collection of possible trees to use? We take a Bayesian approach, generating an appropriate prior via a distribution on partitions that we refer to as the nested ..."
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Cited by 198 (25 self)
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We address the problem of learning topic hierarchies from data. The model selection problem in this domain is dauntingâ€”which of the large collection of possible trees to use? We take a Bayesian approach, generating an appropriate prior via a distribution on partitions that we refer to as the nested Chinese restaurant process. This nonparametric prior allows arbitrarily large branching factors and readily accommodates growing data collections. We build a hierarchical topic model by combining this prior with a likelihood that is based on a hierarchical variant of latent Dirichlet allocation. We illustrate our approach on simulated data and with an application to the modeling of NIPS abstracts. 1
Bayesian Model Averaging for Linear Regression Models
 Journal of the American Statistical Association
, 1997
"... We consider the problem of accounting for model uncertainty in linear regression models. Conditioning on a single selected model ignores model uncertainty, and thus leads to the underestimation of uncertainty when making inferences about quantities of interest. A Bayesian solution to this problem in ..."
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Cited by 190 (13 self)
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We consider the problem of accounting for model uncertainty in linear regression models. Conditioning on a single selected model ignores model uncertainty, and thus leads to the underestimation of uncertainty when making inferences about quantities of interest. A Bayesian solution to this problem involves averaging over all possible models (i.e., combinations of predictors) when making inferences about quantities of
Efficient approximations for the marginal likelihood of Bayesian networks with hidden variables
 Machine Learning
, 1997
"... We discuss Bayesian methods for learning Bayesian networks when data sets are incomplete. In particular, we examine asymptotic approximations for the marginal likelihood of incomplete data given a Bayesian network. We consider the Laplace approximation and the less accurate but more efficient BIC/MD ..."
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Cited by 179 (11 self)
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We discuss Bayesian methods for learning Bayesian networks when data sets are incomplete. In particular, we examine asymptotic approximations for the marginal likelihood of incomplete data given a Bayesian network. We consider the Laplace approximation and the less accurate but more efficient BIC/MDL approximation. We also consider approximations proposed by Draper (1993) and Cheeseman and Stutz (1995). These approximations are as efficient as BIC/MDL, but their accuracy has not been studied in any depth. We compare the accuracy of these approximations under the assumption that the Laplace approximation is the most accurate. In experiments using synthetic data generated from discrete naiveBayes models having a hidden root node, we find that (1) the BIC/MDL measure is the least accurate, having a bias in favor of simple models, and (2) the Draper and CS measures are the most accurate. 1