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Estimating the technology of cognitive and noncognitive skill formation. Manuscript
, 2006
"... This paper formulates and estimates multistage production functions for children’s cognitive and noncognitive skills. Skills are determined by parental environments and investments at different stages of childhood. We estimate the elasticity of substitution between investments in one period and stoc ..."
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Cited by 189 (43 self)
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This paper formulates and estimates multistage production functions for children’s cognitive and noncognitive skills. Skills are determined by parental environments and investments at different stages of childhood. We estimate the elasticity of substitution between investments in one period and stocks of skills in that period to assess the benefits of early investment in children compared to later remediation. We establish nonparametric identification of a general class of production technologies based on nonlinear factor models with endogenous inputs. A byproduct of our approach is a framework for evaluating childhood and schooling interventions that does not rely on arbitrarily scaled test scores as outputs and recognizes the differential effects of the same bundle of skills in different tasks. Using the estimated technology, we determine optimal targeting of interventions to children with different parental and personal birth endowments. Substitutability decreases in later stages of the life cycle in the production of cognitive skills. It increases slightly in later stages of the life cycle in the production of noncognitive skills. This finding has important implications for the design of policies that target the disadvantaged. For some configurations of disadvantage and for some
Visual Tracking and Recognition Using AppearanceAdaptive Models in Particle Filters
 IEEE Transactions on Image Processing
, 2004
"... We present an approach that incorporates appearanceadaptive models in a particle filter to realize robust visual tracking and recognition algorithms. Tracking needs modeling interframe motion and appearance changes whereas recognition needs modeling appearance changes between frames and gallery ..."
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Cited by 189 (12 self)
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We present an approach that incorporates appearanceadaptive models in a particle filter to realize robust visual tracking and recognition algorithms. Tracking needs modeling interframe motion and appearance changes whereas recognition needs modeling appearance changes between frames and gallery images. In conventional tracking algorithms, the appearance model is either fixed or rapidly changing, and the motion model is simply a random walk with fixed noise variance. Also, the number of particles is typically fixed. All these factors make the visual tracker unstable. To stabilize the tracker, we propose the following modifications: an observation model arising from an adaptive appearance model, an adaptive velocity motion model with adaptive noise variance, and an adaptive number of particles. The adaptivevelocity model is derived using a firstorder linear predictor based on the appearance difference between the incoming observation and the previous particle configuration. Occlusion analysis is implemented using robust statistics. Experimental results on tracking visual objects in long outdoor and indoor video sequences demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of our tracking algorithm. We then perform simultaneous tracking and recognition by embedding them in a particle filter. For recognition purposes, we model the appearance changes between frames and gallery images by constructing the intra and extrapersonal spaces. Accurate recognition is achieved when confronted by pose and view variations.
Particle Filters for State Estimation of Jump Markov Linear Systems
, 2001
"... Jump Markov linear systems (JMLS) are linear systems whose parameters evolve with time according to a finite state Markov chain. In this paper, our aim is to recursively compute optimal state estimates for this class of systems. We present efficient simulationbased algorithms called particle filter ..."
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Cited by 177 (15 self)
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Jump Markov linear systems (JMLS) are linear systems whose parameters evolve with time according to a finite state Markov chain. In this paper, our aim is to recursively compute optimal state estimates for this class of systems. We present efficient simulationbased algorithms called particle filters to solve the optimal filtering problem as well as the optimal fixedlag smoothing problem. Our algorithms combine sequential importance sampling, a selection scheme, and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. They use several variance reduction methods to make the most of the statistical structure of JMLS. Computer
Data fusion for visual tracking with particles
 Proc. IEEE
, 2004
"... Abstract—The effectiveness of probabilistic tracking of objects in image sequences has been revolutionized by the development of particle filtering. Whereas Kalman filters are restricted to Gaussian distributions, particle filters can propagate more general distributions, albeit only approximately. ..."
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Cited by 166 (2 self)
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Abstract—The effectiveness of probabilistic tracking of objects in image sequences has been revolutionized by the development of particle filtering. Whereas Kalman filters are restricted to Gaussian distributions, particle filters can propagate more general distributions, albeit only approximately. This is of particular benefit in visual tracking because of the inherent ambiguity of the visual world that stems from its richness and complexity. One important advantage of the particle filtering framework is that it allows the information from different measurement sources to be fused in a principled manner. Although this fact has been acknowledged before, it has not been fully exploited within a visual tracking context. Here we introduce generic importance sampling mechanisms for data fusion and discuss them for fusing color with either stereo sound, for teleconferencing, or with motion, for surveillance with a still camera. We show how each of the three cues can be modeled by an appropriate data likelihood function, and how the intermittent cues (sound or motion) are best handled by generating proposal distributions from their likelihood functions. Finally, the effective fusion of the cues by particle filtering is demonstrated on real teleconference and surveillance data. Index Terms — Visual tracking, data fusion, particle filters, sound, color, motion I.
Bayesian Map Learning in Dynamic Environments
 In Neural Info. Proc. Systems (NIPS
"... We show how map learning can be formulated as inference in a graphical model, which allows us to handle changing environments in a natural manner. We describe several different approximation schemes for the problem, and illustrate some results on a simulated gridworld with doors that can open a ..."
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Cited by 163 (2 self)
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We show how map learning can be formulated as inference in a graphical model, which allows us to handle changing environments in a natural manner. We describe several different approximation schemes for the problem, and illustrate some results on a simulated gridworld with doors that can open and close. We close by briefly discussing how to learn more general models of (partially observed) environments, which can contain a variable number of objects with changing internal state. 1 Introduction Mobile robots need to navigate in dynamic environments: on a short time scale, obstacles, such as people, can appear and disappear, and on longer time scales, structural changes, such as doors opening and closing, can occur. In this paper, we consider how to create models of dynamic environments. In particular, we are interested in modeling the location of objects, which we can represent using a map. This enables the robot to perform path planning, etc. We propose a Bayesian approach in ...
Policy Recognition in the Abstract Hidden Markov Model
 Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research
, 2002
"... In this paper, we present a method for recognising an agent's behaviour in dynamic, noisy, uncertain domains, and across multiple levels of abstraction. We term this problem online plan recognition under uncertainty and view it generally as probabilistic inference on the stochastic process rep ..."
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Cited by 161 (25 self)
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In this paper, we present a method for recognising an agent's behaviour in dynamic, noisy, uncertain domains, and across multiple levels of abstraction. We term this problem online plan recognition under uncertainty and view it generally as probabilistic inference on the stochastic process representing the execution of the agent's plan. Our contributions in this paper are twofold. In terms of probabilistic inference, we introduce the Abstract Hidden Markov Model (AHMM), a novel type of stochastic processes, provide its dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) structure and analyse the properties of this network. We then describe an application of the RaoBlackwellised Particle Filter to the AHMM which allows us to construct an ecient, hybrid inference method for this model. In terms of plan recognition, we propose a novel plan recognition framework based on the AHMM as the plan execution model. The RaoBlackwellised hybrid inference for AHMM can take advantage of the independence properties inherent in a model of plan execution, leading to an algorithm for online probabilistic plan recognition that scales well with the number of levels in the plan hierarchy. This illustrates that while stochastic models for plan execution can be complex, they exhibit special structures which, if exploited, can lead to efficient plan recognition algorithms. We demonstrate the usefulness of the AHMM framework via a behaviour recognition system in a complex spatial environment using distributed video surveillance data.
Monte Carlo smoothing for nonlinear time series
 JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
, 2004
"... We develop methods for performing smoothing computations in general statespace models. The methods rely on a particle representation of the filtering distributions, and their evolution through time using sequential importance sampling and resampling ideas. In particular, novel techniques are pr ..."
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Cited by 153 (16 self)
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We develop methods for performing smoothing computations in general statespace models. The methods rely on a particle representation of the filtering distributions, and their evolution through time using sequential importance sampling and resampling ideas. In particular, novel techniques are presented for generation of sample realizations of historical state sequences. This is carried out in a forwardfiltering backwardsmoothing procedure which can be viewed as the nonlinear, nonGaussian counterpart of standard Kalman filterbased simulation smoothers in the linear Gaussian case. Convergence in the meansquared error sense of the smoothed trajectories is proved, showing the validity of our proposed method. The methods are tested in a substantial application for the processing of speech signals represented by a timevarying autoregression and parameterised in terms of timevarying partial correlation coe#cients, comparing the results of our algorithm with those from a simple smoother based upon the filtered trajectories.
Adapting the Sample Size in Particle Filters Through KLDSampling
 International Journal of Robotics Research
, 2003
"... Over the last years, particle filters have been applied with great success to a variety of state estimation problems. In this paper we present a statistical approach to increasing the efficiency of particle filters by adapting the size of sample sets during the estimation process. ..."
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Cited by 150 (9 self)
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Over the last years, particle filters have been applied with great success to a variety of state estimation problems. In this paper we present a statistical approach to increasing the efficiency of particle filters by adapting the size of sample sets during the estimation process.
Central limit theorem for sequential monte carlo methods and its application to bayesian inference
 Ann. Statist
"... “particle filters, ” refers to a general class of iterative algorithms that performs Monte Carlo approximations of a given sequence of distributions of interest (πt). We establish in this paper a central limit theorem for the Monte Carlo estimates produced by these computational methods. This result ..."
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Cited by 142 (4 self)
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“particle filters, ” refers to a general class of iterative algorithms that performs Monte Carlo approximations of a given sequence of distributions of interest (πt). We establish in this paper a central limit theorem for the Monte Carlo estimates produced by these computational methods. This result holds under minimal assumptions on the distributions πt, and applies in a general framework which encompasses most of the sequential Monte Carlo methods that have been considered in the literature, including the resamplemove algorithm of Gilks and Berzuini [J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B Stat. Methodol. 63 (2001) 127–146] and the residual resampling scheme. The corresponding asymptotic variances provide a convenient measurement of the precision of a given particle filter. We study, in particular, in some typical examples of Bayesian applications, whether and at which rate these asymptotic variances diverge in time, in order to assess the long term reliability of the considered algorithm. 1. Introduction. Sequential Monte Carlo methods form an emerging
Probabilistic Recognition of Human Faces from Video
 Computer Vision and Image Understanding
, 2002
"... Recognition of human faces using a gallery of still or video images and a probe set of videos is systematically investigated using a probabilistic framework. In stilltovideo recognition, where the gallery consists of still images, a time series state space model is proposed to fuse temporal inform ..."
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Cited by 132 (15 self)
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Recognition of human faces using a gallery of still or video images and a probe set of videos is systematically investigated using a probabilistic framework. In stilltovideo recognition, where the gallery consists of still images, a time series state space model is proposed to fuse temporal information in a probe video, which simultaneously characterizes the kinematics and identity using a motion vector and an identity variable, respectively. The joint posterior distribution of the motion vector and the identity variable is estimated at each time instant and then propagated to the next time instant. Marginalization over the motion vector yields a robust estimate of the posterior distribution of the identity variable. A computationally ecient sequential importance sampling algorithm is developed to provide a numerical solution to the model. Theoretical derivations under weak assumptions demonstrate that, due to the propagation of the identity variable over time, a degeneracy in the posterior probability of the identity variable is exploited to give improved recognition.