This paper presents a simple framework for Horn-clause abduction, with probabilities associated with hypotheses. The framework incorporates assumptions about the rule base and independence assumptions amongst hypotheses. It is shown how any probabilistic knowledge representable in a discrete Bayesian belief network can be represented in this framework. The main contribution is in finding a relationship between logical and probabilistic notions of evidential reasoning. This provides a useful representation language in its own right, providing a compromise between heuristic and epistemic adequacy. It also shows how Bayesian networks can be extended beyond a propositional language. This paper also shows how a language with only (unconditionally) independent hypotheses can represent any probabilistic knowledge, and argues that it is better to invent new hypotheses to explain dependence rather than having to worry about dependence in the language. Scholar, Canadian Institute for Advanced...

This paper describes Livingstone, an implemented kernel for a model-based reactive self-configuring autonomous system. It presents a formal characterization of Livingstone's representation formalism, and reports on our experience with the implementation in a variety of domains. Livingstone provides a reactive system that performs significant deduction in the sense/response loop by drawing on our past experience at building fast propositional conflict-based algorithms for model-based diagnosis, and by framing a model-based configuration manager as a propositional feedback controller that generates focused, optimal responses. Livingstone's representation formalism achieves broad coverage of hybrid hardware/software systems by coupling the transition system models underlying concurrent reactive languages with the qualitative representations developed in model-based reasoning. Livingstone automates a wide variety of tasks using a single model and a single core algorithm, thus making signif...

Renewed motives for space exploration have inspired NASA to work toward the goal of establishing a virtual presence in space, through heterogeneous effets of robotic explorers. Information technology, and Artificial Intelligence in particular, will play a central role in this endeavor by endowing these explorers with a form of computational intelligence that we call remote agents. In this paper we describe the Remote Agent, a specific autonomous agent architecture based on the principles of model-based programming, on-board deduction and search, and goal-directed closed-loop commanding, that takes a significant step toward enabling this future. This architecture addresses the unique characteristics of the spacecraft domain that require highly reliable autonomous operations over long periods of time with tight deadlines, resource constraints, and concurrent activity among tightly coupled subsystems. The Remote Agent integrates constraint-based temporal planning and scheduling, robust multi-threaded execution, and model-based mode identification and reconfiguration. The demonstration of the integrated system as an on-board controller for Deep Space One, NASA's rst New Millennium mission, is scheduled for a period of a week in late 1998. The development of the Remote Agent also provided the opportunity to reassess some of AI's conventional wisdom about the challenges of implementing embedded systems, tractable reasoning, and knowledge representation. We discuss these issues, and our often contrary experiences, throughout the paper.

General purpose truth maintenance systems have received considerable attention in the past few years. This paper discusses the functionality of truth maintenance systems and compares various existing algorithms. Applications and directions for future research are also discussed. Introduction In 1978 Jon Doyle wrote a masters thesis at the MIT AI Laboratory entitled "Truth Maintenance Systems for Problem Solving" [ Doyle, 1979 ] . In this thesis Doyle described an independent module called a truth maintenance system, or TMS, which maintained beliefs for general problem solving systems. In the twelve years since the appearance of Doyle's TMS a large body of literature has accumulated on truth maintenance. The seminal idea appears not to have been any particular technical mechanism but rather the general concept of an independent module for truth (or belief) maintenance. All truth maintenance systems manipulate proposition symbols and relationships between proposition symbols. I will use...

The problem of abduction can be characterized as finding the best explanation of a set of data. In this paper we focus on one type of abduction in which the best explanation is the most plausible combination of hypotheses that explains all the data. We then present several computational complexity results demonstrating that this type of abduction is intractable (NP-hard) in general. In particular, choosing between incompatible hypotheses, reasoning about cancellation effects among hypotheses, and satisfying the maximum plausibility requirement are major factors leading to intractability. We also identify a tractable, but restricted, class of abduction problems. Thanks to B. Chandrasekaran, Ashok Goel, Jack Smith, and Jon Sticklen for their comments on the numerous versions of this paper. The referees have also made a substantial contribution. Any remaining errors are our responsibility, of course. This research has been supported in part by the National Library of Medicine, grant LM-...

This paper describes the New Millennium Remote Agent #NMRA# architecture for autonomous spacecraft control systems. This architecture integrates traditional real-time monitoring and control with constraintbased planning and scheduling, robust multi-threaded execution, and model-based diagnosis and recon#guration.

Given a model of a physical process and a sequence of commands and observations received over time, the task of an autonomous controller is to determine the likely states of the process and the actions required to move the process to a desired configuration. We introduce a representation and algorithms for incrementally generating approximate belief states for a restricted but relevant class of partially observable Markov decision processes with very large state spaces. The algorithm incrementally generates, rather than revises, an approximate belief state at any point by abstracting and summarizing segments of the likely trajectories of the process. This enables applications to efficiently maintain a partial belief state when it remains consistent with observations and revisit past assumptions about the process’s evolution when the belief state is ruled out. The system presented has been implemented and results on examples from the domain of spacecraft control are presented.

Artificial intelligence has traditionally used constraint satisfaction and logic to frame a wide range of problems, including planning, diagnosis, cognitive robotics and embedded systems control. However, many decision making problems are now being re-framed as optimization problems, involving a search over a discrete space for the best solution that satisfies a set of constraints. The best methods for finding optimal solutions, such as A*, explore the space of solutions one state at a time. This paper introduces conflict-directed A*, a method for solving optimal constraint satisfaction problems. Conflict-directed A* searches the state space in best first order, but accelerates the search process by eliminating subspaces around each state that are inconsistent. This elimination process builds upon the concepts of conflict and kernel diagnosis used in model-based diagnosis[1,2] and in dependency-directed search[3--6]. Conflict-directed A* is a fundamental tool for building model-based embedded systems, and has been used to solve a range of problems, including fault isolation[1], diagnosis[7], mode estimation and repair[8], model-compilation[9] and model-based programming[10].

This paper describes the Remote Agent flight experiment for spacecraft commanding and control. In the Remote Agent approach, the operational rules and constraints are encoded in the flight software. The software may be considered to be an autonomous "remote agent" of the spacecraft operators in the sense that the operators rely on the agent to achieve particular goals. The experiment will

The notion of process equivalence of probabilistic processes is sensitive to the exact probabilities of transitions. Thus, a slight change in the transition probabilities will result in two equivalent processes being deemed no longer equivalent. This instability is due to the quantitative nature of probabilistic processes. In a situation where the process behaviour has a quantitative aspect there should be a more robust approach to process equivalence. This paper studies a metric between labelled Markov processes. This metric has the property that processes are at zero distance if and only if they are bisimilar. The metric is inspired by earlier work on logics for characterizing bisimulation and is related, in spirit, to the Hutchinson metric.