Twitter, a microblogging service less than three years old, commands more than 41 million users as of July 2009 and is growing fast. Twitter users tweet about any topic within the 140-character limit and follow others to receive their tweets. The goal of this paper is to study the topological characteristics of Twitter and its power as a new medium of information sharing. We have crawled the entire Twitter site and obtained 41.7 million user profiles, 1.47 billion social relations, 4, 262 trending topics, and 106 million tweets. In its follower-following topology analysis we have found a non-power-law follower distribution, a short effective diameter, and low reciprocity, which all mark a deviation from known characteristics of human social networks [28]. In order to identify influentials on Twitter, we have ranked users by the number of followers and by PageRank and found two rankings to be similar.

Information diffusion and virus propagation are fundamental processes talking place in networks. While it is often possible to directly observe when nodes become infected, observing individual transmissions (i.e., who infects whom or who influences whom) is typically very difficult. Furthermore, in many applications, the underlying network over which the diffusions and propagations spread is actually unobserved. We tackle these challenges by developing a method for tracing paths of diffusion and influence through networks and inferring the networks over which contagions propagate. Given the times when nodes adopt pieces of information or become infected, we identify the optimal network that best explains the observed infection times. Since the optimization problem is NP-hard to solve exactly, we develop an efficient approximation algorithm that scales to large datasets and in practice gives provably near-optimal performance. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by tracing information cascades in a set of 170 million blogs and news articles over a one year period to infer how information flows through the online media space. We find that the diffusion network of news tends to have a core-periphery structure with a small set of core media sites that diffuse information to the rest of the Web. These sites tend to have stable circles of influence with more general news media sites acting as connectors between them.

Online content exhibits rich temporal dynamics, and diverse realtime user generated content further intensifies this process. However, temporal patterns by which online content grows and fades over time, and by which different pieces of content compete for attention remain largely unexplored. We study temporal patterns associated with online content and how the content’s popularity grows and fades over time. The attention that content receives on the Web varies depending on many factors and occurs on very different time scales and at different resolutions. In order to uncover the temporal dynamics of online content we formulate a time series clustering problem using a similarity metric that is invariant to scaling and shifting. We develop the K-Spectral Centroid (K-SC) clustering algorithm that effectively finds cluster centroids with our similarity measure. By applying an adaptive wavelet-based incremental approach to clustering, we scale K-SC to large data sets. We demonstrate our approach on two massive datasets: a set of 580 million Tweets, and a set of 170 million blog posts and news media articles. We find that K-SC outperforms the K-means clustering algorithm in finding distinct shapes of time series. Our analysis shows that there are six main temporal shapes of attention of online content. We also present a simple model that reliably predicts the shape of attention by using information about only a small number of participants. Our analyses offer insight into common temporal patterns of the content on the Web and broaden the understanding of the dynamics of human attention.

We study several longstanding questions in media communications research, in the context of the microblogging service Twitter, regarding the production, flow, and consumption of information. To do so, we exploit a recently introduced feature of Twitter known as “lists ” to distinguish between elite users—by which we mean celebrities, bloggers, and representatives of media outlets and other formal organizations—and ordinary users. Based on this classification, we find a striking concentration of attention on Twitter, in that roughly 50 % of URLs consumed are generated by just 20K elite users, where the media produces the most information, but celebrities are the most followed. We also find significant homophily within categories: celebrities listen to celebrities, while bloggers listen to bloggers etc; however, bloggers in general rebroadcast more information than the other categories. Next we re-examine the classical “two-step flow ” theory of communications, finding considerable support for it on Twitter. Third, we find that URLs broadcast by different categories of users or containing different types of content exhibit systematically different lifespans. And finally, we examine the attention paid by the different user categories to different news topics.

There is a widespread intuitive sense that different kinds of information spread differently on-line, but it has been difficult to evaluate this question quantitatively since it requires a setting where many different kinds of information spread in a shared environment. Here we study this issue on Twitter, analyzing the ways in which tokens known as hashtags spread on a network defined by the interactions among Twitter users. We find significant variation in the ways that widely-used hashtags on different topics spread. Our results show that this variation is not attributable simply to differences in “stickiness, ” the probability of adoption based on one or more exposures, but also to a quantity that could be viewed as a kind of “persistence ” — the relative extent to which repeated exposures to a hashtag continue to have significant marginal effects. We find that hashtags on politically controversial topics are particularly persistent, with repeated exposures continuing to have unusually large marginal effects on adoption; this provides, to our knowledge, the first large-scale validation of the “complex contagion” principle from sociology, which posits that repeated exposures to an idea are particularly crucial when the idea is in some way controversial or contentious. Among other findings, we discover that hashtags representing the natural analogues of Twitter idioms and neologisms are particularly non-persistent, with the effect of multiple exposures decaying rapidly relative to the first exposure. We also study the subgraph structure of the initial adopters for different widely-adopted hashtags, again finding structural differences across topics. We develop simulation-based and generative models to analyze how the adoption dynamics interact with the network structure of the early adopters on which a hashtag spreads.

We analyze the information credibility of news propagated through Twitter, a popular microblogging service. Previous research has shown that most of the messages posted on Twitter are truthful, but the service is also used to spread misinformation and false rumors, often unintentionally. On this paper we focus on automatic methods for assessing the credibility of a given set of tweets. Specifically, we analyze microblog postings related to “trending ” topics, and classify them as credible or not credible, based on features extracted from them. We use features from users ’ posting and re-posting (“re-tweeting”) behavior, from the text of the posts, and from citations to external sources. We evaluate our methods using a significant number of human assessments about the credibility of items on a recent sample of Twitter postings. Our results shows that there are measurable differences in the way messages propagate, that can be used to classify them automatically as credible or not credible, with precision and recall in the range of 70% to 80%.

Twitter, Facebook, and other related systems that we call social awareness streams are rapidly changing the information and communication dynamics of our society. These systems, where hundreds of millions of users share short messages in real time, expose the aggregate interests and attention of global and local communities. In particular, emerging temporal trends in these systems, especially those related to a single geographic area, are a significant and revealing source of information for, and about, a local community. This study makes two essential contributions for interpreting emerging temporal trends in these information systems. First, based on a large dataset of Twitter messages from one geographic area, we develop a taxonomy of the trends present in the data. Second, we identify important dimensions according to which trends can be categorized, as well as the key distinguishing features of trends that can be derived from their associated messages. We quantitatively examine the computed features for different categories of trends, and establish that significant differences can be detected across categories. Our study advances the understanding of trends on Twitter and other social awareness streams, which will enable powerful applications and activities, including user-driven real-time information services for local communities.

User-contributed Web data contains rich and diverse information about a variety of events in the physical world, such as shows, festivals, conferences and more. This information ranges from known event features (e.g., title, time, location) posted on event aggregation platforms (e.g., Last.fm events, EventBrite, Facebook events) to discussions and reactions related to events shared on different social media sites (e.g., Twitter, YouTube, Flickr). In this paper, we focus on the challenge of automatically identifying user-contributed content for events that are planned and, therefore, known in advance, across different social media sites. We mine event aggregation platforms to extract event features, which are often noisy or missing. We use these features to develop query formulation strategies for retrieving content associated with an event on different social media sites. Further, we explore ways in which event content identified on one social media site can be used to retrieve additional relevant event content on other social media sites. We apply our strategies to a large set of user-contributed events, and analyze their effectiveness in retrieving relevant event content from Twitter, YouTube, and Flickr.

We study the relationship between content and temporal dynamics of information on Twitter, focusing on the persistence of information. We compare two extreme temporal patterns in the decay rate of URLs embedded in tweets, defining a prediction task to distinguish between URLs that fade rapidly following their peak of popularity and those that fade more slowly. Our experiments show a strong association between the content and the temporal dynamics of information: given unigram features extracted from corresponding HTML webpages, a linear SVM classifier can predict the temporal pattern of URLs with high accuracy. We further explore the content of URLs in the two temporal classes using various textual analysis techniques (via LIWC and trend detection). We find that the rapidly-fading information contains significantly more words related to negative emotion, actions, and more complicated cognitive processes, whereas the persistent information contains more words related to positive emotion, leisure, and lifestyle.

We have studied the simultaneous effects of advertising and word of mouth communication on the hit rate dynamics of a major retail website. The website activity can be described as having a steady-state hit rate punctuated by sharp spikes that can rise to five or six times the steady-state value before returning to quiescent levels. The rise and fall of these spikes is very rapid, happening on a time-scale of about one day. We find that the activity can be reproduced well with a combination of exogenous stimuli and an endogenous communication model. Our communication model is an agentbased model; agents are organized in a hierarchical clustering structure that simulates a social environment. At each time step, an agent will visit the website with a probability given by a value equation V (ρ), where ρ is the fraction of agents in the social cluster who have visited the website recently. Our results show that the effects of external media combined with word of mouth communication as described by the model result in an emergent behaviour that is in agreement with the observed hit rate dynamics. We measure the validity of our communication model by fitting results both to website data as well as to selected YouTube videos. The insights provided by this research will have an immediate business impact, as they provide a method for optimizing a media plan by exploiting the properties of preexisting social networks. In the next phase of our research, we will integrate our results with information about purchases that occurred during visits to the website. This will allow us to measure the media plan ROI and to recommend the introduction of advertising that makes use of social interactions into the marketing mix.