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Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules for Modular Combinatorial Information Aggregation
 Journal of Prediction Markets
, 2002
"... In practice, scoring rules elicit good probability estimates from individuals, while betting markets elicit good consensus estimates from groups. Market scoring rules combine these features, eliciting estimates from individuals or groups, with groups costing no more than individuals. ..."
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Cited by 111 (6 self)
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In practice, scoring rules elicit good probability estimates from individuals, while betting markets elicit good consensus estimates from groups. Market scoring rules combine these features, eliciting estimates from individuals or groups, with groups costing no more than individuals.
A Bayesian paired comparison approach for relative accident probability assessment with covariate information. Accepted by European
 Journal of Operations Research
, 2004
"... Abstract One of the challenges managers face when trying to understand complex, technological systems (in their efforts to mitigate system risks) is the quantification of accident probability, particularly in the case of rare events. Once this risk information has been quantified, managers and dec ..."
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Abstract One of the challenges managers face when trying to understand complex, technological systems (in their efforts to mitigate system risks) is the quantification of accident probability, particularly in the case of rare events. Once this risk information has been quantified, managers and decision makers can use it to develop appropriate policies, design projects, and/or allocate resources that will mitigate risk. However, rare event risk information inherently suffers from a sparseness of accident data. Therefore, expert judgment is often elicited to develop frequency data for these highconsequence rare events. When applied appropriately, expert judgment can serve as an important (and, at times, the only) source of risk information. This paper presents a Bayesian methodology for assessing relative accident probabilities and their uncertainty using paired comparison to elicit expert judgments. The approach is illustrated using expert judgment data elicited for a risk study of the largest passenger ferry system in the U.S.
Analysis of Correlated Expert Judgments from Extended Pairwise Comparisons. Forthcoming in Decision Analysis
, 2005
"... We develop a Bayesian multivariate analysis of expert judgment elicited using an extended form of pairwise comparisons. The method can be used to estimate the effect of multiple factors on the probability of an event and can be applied in risk analysis and other decision problems. The analysis prov ..."
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We develop a Bayesian multivariate analysis of expert judgment elicited using an extended form of pairwise comparisons. The method can be used to estimate the effect of multiple factors on the probability of an event and can be applied in risk analysis and other decision problems. The analysis provides variance predictions of the quantity of interest that incorporate dependencies amongst the various experts. Unlike other combination methods for expert judgment, in this form we may learn about the dependencies between the experts from their responses. The analysis is applied to a data set of expert judgments elicited during the Washington State Ferries Risk Assessment. The effect of the statistical dependence amongst experts is compared to an analysis assuming independence amongst them.
The Elicitation of Probabilities A Review of the Statistical Literature
, 2005
"... “We live in an uncertain world, and probability risk assessment deals as directly with that fact as anything we do. Uncertainty arises partly because we are fallible. ..."
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“We live in an uncertain world, and probability risk assessment deals as directly with that fact as anything we do. Uncertainty arises partly because we are fallible.
MultiExpert Operational Risk Management
 IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics Part C
, 2000
"... Abstract—Operational risk management is the process of monitoring, evaluating, and changing courses of actions with potential detrimental consequences in real time. In this paper, we extend the decision models proposed in the literature for individual risk managers to account for situations where mu ..."
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Abstract—Operational risk management is the process of monitoring, evaluating, and changing courses of actions with potential detrimental consequences in real time. In this paper, we extend the decision models proposed in the literature for individual risk managers to account for situations where multiple risk managers are involved. For this purpose, two dynamic and adaptive preference aggregation models for cardinal and ordinal assessments are proposed and discussed. The mechanical aspects of the models are then validated using field data collected from experienced operational risk managers in an individualexpert setting. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the models have enough flexibility to be adapted to account for behavioral considerations. The paper closes with a research agenda. Index Terms—Decision making, experts, preference aggregation, risk management. I.
An Elicitation Procedure for the Generalized Trapezoidal Distribution with a Uniform Central Stage
"... Abstract: Recent advances in computation technology for decision/simulation and uncertainty analyses have revived interest in the the triangular distribution and its use to describe uncertainty of bounded input phenomena. The trapezoidal distribution, explicitly suggested by Pouliquen (1970) in the ..."
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Abstract: Recent advances in computation technology for decision/simulation and uncertainty analyses have revived interest in the the triangular distribution and its use to describe uncertainty of bounded input phenomena. The trapezoidal distribution, explicitly suggested by Pouliquen (1970) in the framework of risk and uncertainty analysis, is a generalization of the triangular distribution that allows for the specification of the modal value by means of a range of values rather than a single point estimate. While the trapezoidal and the triangular distributions are restricted to linear geometric forms in the successive stages of the distribution, the generalized trapezoidal (GT) distribution introduced by van Dorp and (2003) allows for a nonlinear behavior at its tails andKotz a linear incline (or decline) in the central stage. In this paper we shall develop two novel elicitation procedures for the parameters of a special case of the GT family by restricting ourselves to a uniform (horizontal) central stage in accordance with the central stage of the original trapezoidal
Eliciting Objective Probabilities via Lottery Insurance Games
 Computational Mathematics Laboratory, Rice University
, 1993
"... Since utilities and probabilities jointly determine choices, eventdependent utilities complicate the elicitation of subjective event probabilities. However, for the usual purpose of obtaining the information embodied in agent beliefs, it is su#cient to elicit objective probabilities, i.e., proba ..."
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Since utilities and probabilities jointly determine choices, eventdependent utilities complicate the elicitation of subjective event probabilities. However, for the usual purpose of obtaining the information embodied in agent beliefs, it is su#cient to elicit objective probabilities, i.e., probabilities obtained by updating a known common prior with that agent's further information. Bayesians who play a Nash equilibrium of a certain insurance game before they obtain relevant information will afterward act regarding lottery ticket payments as if they had eventindependent riskneutral utility and a known common prior. Proper scoring rules paid in lottery tickets can then elicit objective probabilities.
Designing ELICITOR: Software to graphically elicit expert priors for logistic
"... regression models in ecology. ..."
Model uncertainty;
"... recharge models developed for the Death Valley regional flow system (DVRFS), covering is uncertain which recharge model (or models) should be used as input for groundwater betweenexpert variability. The most favorable model, on average, is the most compliond highest prior probability. The aggregat ..."
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recharge models developed for the Death Valley regional flow system (DVRFS), covering is uncertain which recharge model (or models) should be used as input for groundwater betweenexpert variability. The most favorable model, on average, is the most compliond highest prior probability. The aggregated prior probabilities are close to the neutral and the largest amount of information used to evaluate the models. However, when enough data are available, we prefer to use a crossvalidation method to select the best set of prior model probabilities that gives the best predictive performance.
MANAGING OIL TRANSPORTATION RISK IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
, 2000
"... The grounding of the Exxon Valdez caused public and government concern about the safety of oil transportation in the Prince William Sound, Alaska. As a result, a large number of proposals and recommendations were made to improve safety, but stakeholders could not achieve a consensus on their effecti ..."
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The grounding of the Exxon Valdez caused public and government concern about the safety of oil transportation in the Prince William Sound, Alaska. As a result, a large number of proposals and recommendations were made to improve safety, but stakeholders could not achieve a consensus on their effectiveness at reducing risk. A steering committee representing all local stakeholders, including the Prince William Sound Shipping Companies, the Prince William Sound Regional Citizens Advisory Committee, the Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation, and the U.S. Coast Guard, was formed to address the issue of risk intervention effectiveness. The Steering Committee hired a team of consultants who were charged with assessing the current risk of accidents involving oil tankers operating in the Prince William Sound and evaluating measures aimed at reducing this risk. The team created a detailed model of the Prince William Sound oil transportation system, using system simulation, data analysis, and expert judgment, capable of answering the majority of the questions posed by the Steering Committee. The success of the project has been demonstrated by the acceptance of the major recommendations by all stakeholders and has, to date,