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Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules for Modular Combinatorial Information Aggregation
- Journal of Prediction Markets
, 2002
"... In practice, scoring rules elicit good probability estimates from individuals, while betting markets elicit good consensus estimates from groups. Market scoring rules combine these features, eliciting estimates from individuals or groups, with groups costing no more than individuals. ..."
Abstract
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Cited by 44 (4 self)
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In practice, scoring rules elicit good probability estimates from individuals, while betting markets elicit good consensus estimates from groups. Market scoring rules combine these features, eliciting estimates from individuals or groups, with groups costing no more than individuals.
Eliciting Objective Probabilities via Lottery Insurance Games
- Computational Mathematics Laboratory, Rice University
, 1993
"... Since utilities and probabilities jointly determine choices, event-dependent utilities complicate the elicitation of subjective event probabilities. However, for the usual purpose of obtaining the information embodied in agent beliefs, it is su#cient to elicit objective probabilities, i.e., proba ..."
Abstract
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Cited by 1 (1 self)
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Since utilities and probabilities jointly determine choices, event-dependent utilities complicate the elicitation of subjective event probabilities. However, for the usual purpose of obtaining the information embodied in agent beliefs, it is su#cient to elicit objective probabilities, i.e., probabilities obtained by updating a known common prior with that agent's further information. Bayesians who play a Nash equilibrium of a certain insurance game before they obtain relevant information will afterward act regarding lottery ticket payments as if they had event-independent risk-neutral utility and a known common prior. Proper scoring rules paid in lottery tickets can then elicit objective probabilities.
Designing ELICITOR: Software to graphically elicit expert priors for logistic
"... regression models in ecology. ..."

