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A general identification condition for causal effects
 In Eighteenth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence
"... This paper concerns the assessment of the effects of actions or policy interventions from a combination of: (i) nonexperimental data, and (ii) substantive assumptions. The assumptions are encoded in the form of a directed acyclic graph, also called “causal graph”, in which some variables are presume ..."
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Cited by 57 (18 self)
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This paper concerns the assessment of the effects of actions or policy interventions from a combination of: (i) nonexperimental data, and (ii) substantive assumptions. The assumptions are encoded in the form of a directed acyclic graph, also called “causal graph”, in which some variables are presumed to be unobserved. The paper establishes a necessary and sufficient criterion for the identifiability of the causal effects of a singleton variable on all other variables in the model, and apowerful sufficient criterion for the effects of a singleton variable on any set of variables.
Bounds on Treatment Effects from Studies with Imperfect Compliance
 JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
, 1997
"... This paper establishes nonparametric formulas that can be used to bound the average treatment effect in experimental studies in which treatment assignment is random but subject compliance is imperfect. The bounds provided are the tightest possible, given the distribution of assignments, treatment ..."
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Cited by 56 (13 self)
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This paper establishes nonparametric formulas that can be used to bound the average treatment effect in experimental studies in which treatment assignment is random but subject compliance is imperfect. The bounds provided are the tightest possible, given the distribution of assignments, treatments, and responses. The formulas show that even with high rates of noncompliance, experimental data can yield useful and sometimes accurate information on the average e#ect of a treatment on the population.
Graphs, Causality, And Structural Equation Models
, 1998
"... Structural equation modeling (SEM) has dominated causal analysis in the social and behavioral sciences since the 1960s. Currently, many SEM practitioners are having difficulty articulating the causal content of SEM and are seeking foundational answers. ..."
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Cited by 44 (14 self)
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Structural equation modeling (SEM) has dominated causal analysis in the social and behavioral sciences since the 1960s. Currently, many SEM practitioners are having difficulty articulating the causal content of SEM and are seeking foundational answers.
Reasoning With Cause And Effect
, 1999
"... This paper summarizes basic concepts and principles that I have found to be useful in dealing with causal reasoning. The paper is written as a companion to a lecture under the same title, to be presented at IJCAI99, and is intended to supplement the lecture with technical details and pointers to mo ..."
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Cited by 36 (0 self)
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This paper summarizes basic concepts and principles that I have found to be useful in dealing with causal reasoning. The paper is written as a companion to a lecture under the same title, to be presented at IJCAI99, and is intended to supplement the lecture with technical details and pointers to more elaborate discussions in the literature. The ruling conception will be to treat causation as a computational schema devised to identify the invariant relationships in the environment, so as to facilitate reliable prediction of the effect of actions. This conception, as well as several of its satellite principles and tools, has been guiding paradigm for several research communities in AI, most notably those connected with causal discovery, troubleshooting, planning under uncertainty and modeling the behavior of physical systems. My hopes are to encourage a broader and more effective usage of causal modeling by explicating these common principles in simple and familiar mathematical form. Af...
A Clinician's Tool for Analyzing Noncompliance
, 1996
"... We describe a computer program to assist a clinician with assessing the efficacy of treatments in experimental studies for which treatment assignment is random but subject compliance is imperfect. The major difficulty in such studies is that treatment efficacy is not "identifiable", that is, it ..."
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Cited by 20 (11 self)
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We describe a computer program to assist a clinician with assessing the efficacy of treatments in experimental studies for which treatment assignment is random but subject compliance is imperfect. The major difficulty in such studies is that treatment efficacy is not "identifiable", that is, it cannot be estimated from the data, even when the number of subjects is infinite, unless additional knowledge is provided. Our system combines Bayesian learning with Gibbs sampling using two inputs: (1) the investigator's prior probabilities of the relative sizes of subpopulations and (2) the observed data from the experiment. The system outputs a histogram depicting the posterior distribution of the average treatment effect, that is, the probability that the average outcome (e.g., survival) would attain a given level, had the treatment been taken uniformly by the entire population. This paper describes the theoretical basis for the proposed approach and presents experimental results on ...
Identifying Independencies in Causal Graphs with Feedback
 In Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence: Proceedings of the Twelfth Conference
, 1996
"... We show that the dseparation criterion constitutes a valid test for conditional independence relationships that are induced by feedback systems involving discrete variables. 1 INTRODUCTION It is well known that the dseparation test is sound and complete relative to the independencies assumed in t ..."
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Cited by 19 (0 self)
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We show that the dseparation criterion constitutes a valid test for conditional independence relationships that are induced by feedback systems involving discrete variables. 1 INTRODUCTION It is well known that the dseparation test is sound and complete relative to the independencies assumed in the construction of Bayesian networks [Verma and Pearl, 1988, Geiger et al., 1990]. In other words, any dseparation condition in the network corresponds to a genuine independence condition in the underlying probability distribution and, conversely, every dconnection corresponds to a dependency in at least one distribution compatible with the network. The situation with feedback systems is more complicated, primarily because the probability distributions associated with such systems do not lend themselves to a simple product decomposition. The joint distribution of feedback systems cannot be written as a product of the conditional distributions of each child variable, given its parents. Rath...
Causal Inference from Indirect Experiments
, 1995
"... Indirect experiments are studies in which randomized control is replaced by randomized encouragement, that is, subjects are encouraged, rather than forced to receive treatment programs. The purpose of this paper is to bring to the attention of experimental researchers simple mathematical results tha ..."
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Cited by 15 (4 self)
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Indirect experiments are studies in which randomized control is replaced by randomized encouragement, that is, subjects are encouraged, rather than forced to receive treatment programs. The purpose of this paper is to bring to the attention of experimental researchers simple mathematical results that enable us to assess, from indirect experiments, the strength with which causal influences operate among variables of interest. The results reveal that despite the laxity of the encouraging instrument, indirect experimentation can yield significant and sometimes accurate information on the impact of a program on the population as a whole, as well as on the particular individuals who participated in the program. Keywords: Causal reasoning, treatment evaluation, noncompliance, graphical models 1 Introduction Standard experimental studies in the biological, medical, and behavioral sciences invariably invoke the instrument of randomized control, that is, subjects are assigned at random to va...
Why There Is No Statistical Test For Confounding, Why Many Think There Is, And Why They Are Almost Right
, 1998
"... this paper is to bring to the attention of investigators several basic limitations of the associational criterion. We will show that the associational criterion does not ensure unbiased e#ect estimates, nor does it follow from the requirement of unbiasedness. After demonstrating, by examples, the ab ..."
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Cited by 13 (4 self)
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this paper is to bring to the attention of investigators several basic limitations of the associational criterion. We will show that the associational criterion does not ensure unbiased e#ect estimates, nor does it follow from the requirement of unbiasedness. After demonstrating, by examples, the absence of logical connections between the statistical and the causal notions of confounding, we will de#ne a stronger notion of unbiasedness, called stable unbiasedness, relative to which a modi#ed statistical criterion will be shown necessary and su#cient. The necessary part will then yield a practical test for stable unbiasedness which, remarkably, does not require knowledge of all potential confounders in a problem. Finally,wewill argue that the prevailing practice of substituting statistical criteria for the e#ectbased de#nition of confounding is not entirely misguided, because stable unbiasedness is in fact what investigators have been and should be aiming to achieve, and stable unbiasedness is what statistical criteria can test.