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22
Model selection and accounting for model uncertainty in graphical models using Occam's window
, 1993
"... We consider the problem of model selection and accounting for model uncertainty in highdimensional contingency tables, motivated by expert system applications. The approach most used currently is a stepwise strategy guided by tests based on approximate asymptotic Pvalues leading to the selection o ..."
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Cited by 266 (46 self)
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We consider the problem of model selection and accounting for model uncertainty in highdimensional contingency tables, motivated by expert system applications. The approach most used currently is a stepwise strategy guided by tests based on approximate asymptotic Pvalues leading to the selection of a single model; inference is then conditional on the selected model. The sampling properties of such a strategy are complex, and the failure to take account of model uncertainty leads to underestimation of uncertainty about quantities of interest. In principle, a panacea is provided by the standard Bayesian formalism which averages the posterior distributions of the quantity of interest under each of the models, weighted by their posterior model probabilities. Furthermore, this approach is optimal in the sense of maximising predictive ability. However, this has not been used in practice because computing the posterior model probabilities is hard and the number of models is very large (often greater than 1011). We argue that the standard Bayesian formalism is unsatisfactory and we propose an alternative Bayesian approach that, we contend, takes full account of the true model uncertainty byaveraging overamuch smaller set of models. An efficient search algorithm is developed for nding these models. We consider two classes of graphical models that arise in expert systems: the recursive causal models and the decomposable
A characterization of Markov equivalence classes for acyclic digraphs
, 1995
"... Undirected graphs and acyclic digraphs (ADGs), as well as their mutual extension to chain graphs, are widely used to describe dependencies among variables in multivariate distributions. In particular, the likelihood functions of ADG models admit convenient recursive factorizations that often allow e ..."
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Cited by 92 (7 self)
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Undirected graphs and acyclic digraphs (ADGs), as well as their mutual extension to chain graphs, are widely used to describe dependencies among variables in multivariate distributions. In particular, the likelihood functions of ADG models admit convenient recursive factorizations that often allow explicit maximum likelihood estimates and that are well suited to building Bayesian networks for expert systems. Whereas the undirected graph associated with a dependence model is uniquely determined, there may, however, be many ADGs that determine the same dependence ( = Markov) model. Thus, the family of all ADGs with a given set of vertices is naturally partitioned into Markovequivalence classes, each class being associated with a unique statistical model. Statistical procedures, such as model selection or model averaging, that fail to take into account these equivalence classes, may incur substantial computational or other inefficiencies. Here it is shown that each Markovequivalence class is uniquely determined by a single chain graph, the essential graph, that is itself simultaneously Markov equivalent to all ADGs in the equivalence class. Essential graphs are characterized, a polynomialtime algorithm for their construction is given, and their applications to model selection and other statistical
On the Markov Equivalence of Chain Graphs, Undirected Graphs, and Acyclic Digraphs
 Scandinavian Journal of Statistics
, 1994
"... Graphical Markov models use undirected graphs (UDGs), acyclic directed graphs (ADGs), or (mixed) chain graphs to represent possible dependencies among random variables in a multivariate distribution. Whereas a UDG is uniquely determined by its associated Markov model, this is not true for ADGs or fo ..."
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Cited by 30 (5 self)
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Graphical Markov models use undirected graphs (UDGs), acyclic directed graphs (ADGs), or (mixed) chain graphs to represent possible dependencies among random variables in a multivariate distribution. Whereas a UDG is uniquely determined by its associated Markov model, this is not true for ADGs or for general chain graphs (which include both UDGs and ADGs as special cases). This paper addresses three questions regarding the equivalence of graphical Markov models: when is a given chain graph Markov equivalent (1) to some UDG? (2) to some (at least one) ADG? (3) to some decomposable UDG? The answers are obtained by means of an extension of Frydenberg's (1990) elegant graphtheoretic characterization of the Markov equivalence of chain graphs. 1 Introduction The use of graphs to represent dependence relations among random variables, first introduced by Wright (1921), has generated considerable research activity, especially since the early 1980s. Particular attention has been devoted to gra...
Bayesian model selection in structural equation models
, 1993
"... A Bayesian approach to model selection for structural equation models is outlined. This enables us to compare individual models, nested or nonnested, and also to search through the (perhaps vast) set of possible models for the best ones. The approach selects several models rather than just one, whe ..."
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Cited by 29 (10 self)
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A Bayesian approach to model selection for structural equation models is outlined. This enables us to compare individual models, nested or nonnested, and also to search through the (perhaps vast) set of possible models for the best ones. The approach selects several models rather than just one, when appropriate, and so enables us to take account, both informally and formally, of uncertainty about model structure when making inferences about quantities of interest. The approach tends to select simpler models than strategies based on multiple Pvaluebased tests. It may thus help to overcome the criticism of structural
Discrete chain graph models
 Bernoulli
, 2009
"... The statistical literature discusses different types of Markov properties for chain graphs that lead to four possible classes of chain graph Markov models. The different models are rather well understood when the observations are continuous and multivariate normal, and it is also known that one mode ..."
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Cited by 11 (1 self)
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The statistical literature discusses different types of Markov properties for chain graphs that lead to four possible classes of chain graph Markov models. The different models are rather well understood when the observations are continuous and multivariate normal, and it is also known that one model class, referred to as models of LWF (Lauritzen–Wermuth–Frydenberg) or block concentration type, yields discrete models for categorical data that are smooth. This paper considers the structural properties of the discrete models based on the three alternative Markov properties. It is shown by example that two of the alternative Markov properties can lead to nonsmooth models. The remaining model class, which can be viewed as a discrete version of multivariate regressions, is proven to comprise only smooth models. The proof employs a simple change of coordinates that also reveals that the model’s likelihood function is unimodal if the chain components of the graph are complete sets.
BIFROST  Block recursive models Induced From Relevant knowledge, Observations, and Statistical Techniques
 Computational Statistics and Data Analysis
, 1993
"... The theoretical background for a program for establishing expert systems on the basis of observations and expert knowledge is presented. Block recursive models form the basis of the statistical modelling. These models, together with various model selection methods for automatic model selection, a ..."
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Cited by 2 (0 self)
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The theoretical background for a program for establishing expert systems on the basis of observations and expert knowledge is presented. Block recursive models form the basis of the statistical modelling. These models, together with various model selection methods for automatic model selection, are presented. Additionally, the connection between a block recursive model and expert systems based on causal probabilistic networks is treated. A medical example concerning diagnosis of coronary artery disease forms the basis for an evaluation of the expert systems established. Keywords: causal probabilistic networks, graphical association models, machine learning, model selection, selection criteria, selection strategies. 1 Introduction BIFROST is a program for semiautomatic knowledge acquisition and is a continuation developments made in (Greve, Hjsgaard, Skjth and Thiesson 1990). The objective is to obtain preliminary causal models for use in the HUGIN expert system shell (Ander...
LINEAR MODELS ANALYSIS OF INCOMPLETE MULTIVARIATE CATEGORICAL DATA
, 1972
"... This research deals with experiments or surveys producing multivariate categorical data which is incomplete, in the sense that not all variables of interest are measured on every subject or element of the sample. For the most part, incompleteness is taken to arise by design, rather than by random fa ..."
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Cited by 1 (0 self)
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This research deals with experiments or surveys producing multivariate categorical data which is incomplete, in the sense that not all variables of interest are measured on every subject or element of the sample. For the most part, incompleteness is taken to arise by design, rather than by random failure of the measurement process. In these circumstances, one can often assume that counts derived from appropriate disjoint subsets of the data arise from independent multinomial distributions with linearly related parameters. Best asymptotically normal oJ estimates of these parameters may be determined by maximizing the likelihood of the observations or by minimizing Pearson'sx 2, Neyman's X~,
Analyzing Categorical Panel Data by Means of Causal Loglinear Models with Latent Variables: An Application to the Change in YouthCentrism
"... This paper was written in 1995/1996. The German version was published by ZA Infomation. The English version was submitted but not revised. 1 This paper presents a general approach to the analysis of categorical panel data which is based on using causal loglinear models with latent variables. Like ..."
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Cited by 1 (1 self)
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This paper was written in 1995/1996. The German version was published by ZA Infomation. The English version was submitted but not revised. 1 This paper presents a general approach to the analysis of categorical panel data which is based on using causal loglinear models with latent variables. Like the wellknown LISREL model, these models consist of a structural and a measurement part. In the structural part, a system of logit equations is used to explain changes which occur in the dependent variable of interest. An unrestricted or restricted latent class model is used in the measurement part of the model. It is demonstrated that the measurement model can be used to specify discrete variants of latent trait models, such as the Rasch model and the LordBirnbaum model. The approach is illustrated by means of an application on youthcentrism. Several measurement models are tested for a scale which is assumed to measure youthcentrism. In addition, the influence of covariates on a person’s initial position and on the transition probabilities between time points is studied.
Highdimensional Graphical Model Search with gRapHD R Package
, 909
"... This paper presents the R package gRapHD for efficient selection of highdimensional undirected graphical models. The package provides tools for selecting trees, forests and decomposable models minimizing information criteria such as AIC or BIC, and for displaying the independence graphs of the model ..."
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Cited by 1 (0 self)
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This paper presents the R package gRapHD for efficient selection of highdimensional undirected graphical models. The package provides tools for selecting trees, forests and decomposable models minimizing information criteria such as AIC or BIC, and for displaying the independence graphs of the models. It has also some useful tools for analysing graphical structures. It supports the use of discrete, continuous, or both types of variables. 1
Examining Multifactor Interactions in Microblogging Based on Loglinear Modeling
"... Abstract—Microblogging, as a new form of social media, attracts a huge number of users and becomes very popular. In this paper, we consider a fundamental social network issue that illustrates how information flows through a social media network and specify why users have different retweet behaviors. ..."
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Cited by 1 (1 self)
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Abstract—Microblogging, as a new form of social media, attracts a huge number of users and becomes very popular. In this paper, we consider a fundamental social network issue that illustrates how information flows through a social media network and specify why users have different retweet behaviors. We propose to characterize social ties by using various features such as power ratio, local link structure, location, and gender. Those features can be directly extracted from users ’ profiles in Microblogging sites. We apply a fitted Loglinear model to describe association patterns among the features and retweet factor. Using the fitted Loglinear model, we explain why users with different profiles and link structures have different retweet behaviors. Our evaluations on Sina Weibo data set show several phenomenons. I.