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The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," working paper, Graduate (1998)

by Brad M Barber, Terrance Odean
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Volume, Volatility, Price and Profit when All Trades are Above Average

by Terrance Odean, Bill Keirstead - Journal of Finance , 1998
"... People are overconfident. Overconfidence affects financial markets. How depends on who in the market is overconfident and on how information is distributed. This paper examines markets in which price-taking traders, a strategic-trading insider, and risk-averse marketmakers are overconfident. Overcon ..."
Abstract - Cited by 53 (7 self) - Add to MetaCart
People are overconfident. Overconfidence affects financial markets. How depends on who in the market is overconfident and on how information is distributed. This paper examines markets in which price-taking traders, a strategic-trading insider, and risk-averse marketmakers are overconfident. Overconfidence increases expected trading volume, increases market depth, and decreases the expected utility of overconfident traders. Its effect on volatility and price quality depend on who is overconfident. Overconfident traders can cause markets to underreact to the information of rational traders. Markets also underreact to abstract, statistical, and highly relevant information, and they overreact to salient, anecdotal, and less relevant information. MODELS OF FINANCIAL MARKETS are often extended by incorporating the imperfections that we observe in real markets. For example, models may not consider transactions costs, an important feature of real markets; so Constantinides ~1979!, Leland ~1985!, and others incorporate transactions costs into their models. Just as the observed features of actual markets are incorporated into models, so too are the observed traits of economic agents. In 1738 Daniel Bernoulli noted that people behave as if they are risk averse. Prior to Bernoulli most scholars considered it normative behavior to value a gamble at its expected value. Today, economic models usually assume agents are risk averse, though, for tractability, they are also modeled as risk neutral. In reality, people are not always risk averse or even risk neutral; millions of people engage in regular risk-seeking activity, such as buying lottery tickets. Kahne-

Parameter Estimation Techniques, Optimization Frequency, and Equity Portfolio Return Enhancement

by Glen A. Larsen, Jr., Bruce G. Resnick
"... Various ex ante portfolio parameter estimation techniques and optimization/holding period frequency intervals are tested for their ability to enhance managed portfolio returns relative to a benchmark. The potential for return enhancement is accomplished by optimizing over highly correlated size-base ..."
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Various ex ante portfolio parameter estimation techniques and optimization/holding period frequency intervals are tested for their ability to enhance managed portfolio returns relative to a benchmark. The potential for return enhancement is accomplished by optimizing over highly correlated size-based constituent portfolios of the benchmark. Overall, the results suggest that it is possible to consistently achieve enhanced returns at much the same level of return per unit of risk as the benchmark portfolio.
The National Science Foundation
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