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18
Bounds on Treatment Effects from Studies with Imperfect Compliance
 JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
, 1997
"... This paper establishes nonparametric formulas that can be used to bound the average treatment effect in experimental studies in which treatment assignment is random but subject compliance is imperfect. The bounds provided are the tightest possible, given the distribution of assignments, treatment ..."
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Cited by 88 (16 self)
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This paper establishes nonparametric formulas that can be used to bound the average treatment effect in experimental studies in which treatment assignment is random but subject compliance is imperfect. The bounds provided are the tightest possible, given the distribution of assignments, treatments, and responses. The formulas show that even with high rates of noncompliance, experimental data can yield useful and sometimes accurate information on the average e#ect of a treatment on the population.
Causal Inference from Graphical Models
, 2001
"... Introduction The introduction of Bayesian networks (Pearl 1986b) and associated local computation algorithms (Lauritzen and Spiegelhalter 1988, Shenoy and Shafer 1990, Jensen, Lauritzen and Olesen 1990) has initiated a renewed interest for understanding causal concepts in connection with modelling ..."
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Cited by 71 (5 self)
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Introduction The introduction of Bayesian networks (Pearl 1986b) and associated local computation algorithms (Lauritzen and Spiegelhalter 1988, Shenoy and Shafer 1990, Jensen, Lauritzen and Olesen 1990) has initiated a renewed interest for understanding causal concepts in connection with modelling complex stochastic systems. It has become clear that graphical models, in particular those based upon directed acyclic graphs, have natural causal interpretations and thus form a base for a language in which causal concepts can be discussed and analysed in precise terms. As a consequence there has been an explosion of writings, not primarily within mainstream statistical literature, concerned with the exploitation of this language to clarify and extend causal concepts. Among these we mention in particular books by Spirtes, Glymour and Scheines (1993), Shafer (1996), and Pearl (2000) as well as the collection of papers in Glymour and Cooper (1999). Very briefly, but fundamentally,
A Clinician's Tool for Analyzing Noncompliance
, 1996
"... We describe a computer program to assist a clinician with assessing the efficacy of treatments in experimental studies for which treatment assignment is random but subject compliance is imperfect. The major difficulty in such studies is that treatment efficacy is not "identifiable", th ..."
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Cited by 20 (12 self)
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We describe a computer program to assist a clinician with assessing the efficacy of treatments in experimental studies for which treatment assignment is random but subject compliance is imperfect. The major difficulty in such studies is that treatment efficacy is not "identifiable", that is, it cannot be estimated from the data, even when the number of subjects is infinite, unless additional knowledge is provided. Our system combines Bayesian learning with Gibbs sampling using two inputs: (1) the investigator's prior probabilities of the relative sizes of subpopulations and (2) the observed data from the experiment. The system outputs a histogram depicting the posterior distribution of the average treatment effect, that is, the probability that the average outcome (e.g., survival) would attain a given level, had the treatment been taken uniformly by the entire population. This paper describes the theoretical basis for the proposed approach and presents experimental results on ...
The New Challenge: From a Century of Statistics to an Age of Causation
 COMPUTING SCIENCE AND STATISTICS
, 1997
"... Some of the main users of statistical methods  economists, social scientists, and epidemiologists  are discovering that their fields rest not on statistical but on causal foundations. The blurring of these foundations over the years follows from the lack of mathematical notation capable of disti ..."
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Cited by 11 (1 self)
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Some of the main users of statistical methods  economists, social scientists, and epidemiologists  are discovering that their fields rest not on statistical but on causal foundations. The blurring of these foundations over the years follows from the lack of mathematical notation capable of distinguishing causal from equational relationships. By providing formal and natural explication of such relations, graphical methods have the potential to revolutionize how statistics is used in knowledgerich applications. Statisticians, in response, are beginning to realize that causality is not a metaphysical deadend but a meaningful concept with clear mathematical underpinning. The paper surveys these developments and outlines future challenges.
Active learning of causal networks with intervention experiments and optimal
, 2008
"... The causal discovery from data is important for various scientific investigations. Because we cannot distinguish the different directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) in a Markov equivalence class learned from observational data, we have to collect further information on causal structures from experiments wi ..."
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Cited by 8 (0 self)
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The causal discovery from data is important for various scientific investigations. Because we cannot distinguish the different directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) in a Markov equivalence class learned from observational data, we have to collect further information on causal structures from experiments with external interventions. In this paper, we propose an active learning approach for discovering causal structures in which we first find a Markov equivalence class from observational data, and then we orient undirected edges in every chain component via intervention experiments separately. In the experiments, some variables are manipulated through external interventions. We discuss two kinds of intervention experiments, randomized experiment and quasiexperiment. Furthermore, we give two optimal designs of experiments, a batchintervention design and a sequentialintervention design, to minimize the number of manipulated variables and the set of candidate structures based on the minimax and the maximum entropy criteria. We show theoretically that structural learning can be done locally in subgraphs of chain components without need of checking illegal vstructures and cycles in the whole network and that a Markov equivalence subclass obtained after each intervention can still be depicted as a chain graph.
Causal Inference in the Health Sciences: A Conceptual Introduction
 Health Services and Outcomes Research Methodology
, 2001
"... This paper provides a conceptual introduction to causal inference, aimed to assist health services researchers benefit from recent advances in this area. The paper stresses the paradigmatic shifts that must be undertaken in moving from traditional statistical analysis to causal analysis of multivari ..."
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Cited by 8 (0 self)
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This paper provides a conceptual introduction to causal inference, aimed to assist health services researchers benefit from recent advances in this area. The paper stresses the paradigmatic shifts that must be undertaken in moving from traditional statistical analysis to causal analysis of multivariate data. Special emphasis is placed on the assumptions that underlie all causal inferences, the languages used in formulating those assumptions, and the conditional nature of causal claims inferred from nonexperimental studies. These emphases are illustrated through a brief survey of recent results, including the control of confounding, corrections for noncompliance, and a symbiosis between counterfactual and graphical methods of analysis.
Discussion on causality
 Scand. J. Statist
, 2004
"... First, let me congratulate both authors on two fine papers which illuminate important aspects of causal inference. I have only a little to say about Professor Arjas ’ paper which specifically illuminates the aspect oftime and causality in an excellent way. I will therefore concentrate on the concept ..."
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Cited by 6 (0 self)
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First, let me congratulate both authors on two fine papers which illuminate important aspects of causal inference. I have only a little to say about Professor Arjas ’ paper which specifically illuminates the aspect oftime and causality in an excellent way. I will therefore concentrate on the concepts described by Professor Rubin which seem to be more controversial, thus lending themselves directly to discussion. 1. Causal languages In the modern revival ofinterest in causal inference in statistics, a number ofcompeting formalisms prevail such as structural equations (Pearl, 2000), graphical models (Spirtes et al., 1993; Pearl, 1995a; Lauritzen, 2001; Dawid, 2002), counterfactual random variables (Robins, 1986), or potential responses (Rubin, 1974, 1978; Holland, 1986). Much energy has been used to promote the virtues ofone formalism versus the other, seemingly without coming nearer to a consensus; see the somewhat relentless discussion ofDawid (2000). Professor Rubin’s paper advocates the use of potential responses in contrast to graphical models, illustrated with a discussion of direct and indirect effects in connection with the use of surrogate endpoints in clinical trials.
Cointegration and Causality Analysis of World Vegetable Oil and Crude
 Oil Prices.’’ Paper presented at the American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting
, 2006
"... Readers may take verbatim copies of this document for noncommercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice appears on all such copies. ..."
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Cited by 4 (0 self)
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Readers may take verbatim copies of this document for noncommercial purposes by any means, provided that this copyright notice appears on all such copies.
Causal bounds and instruments
 In Proceedings of the 23rd Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Inteligence 310–317. AUAI
, 2007
"... Instrumental variables have proven useful, in particular within the social sciences and economics, for making inference about the causal effect of a random variable, B, on another random variable, C, in the presence of unobserved confounders. In the case where relationships are linear, causal eff ..."
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Cited by 4 (2 self)
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Instrumental variables have proven useful, in particular within the social sciences and economics, for making inference about the causal effect of a random variable, B, on another random variable, C, in the presence of unobserved confounders. In the case where relationships are linear, causal effects can be identified exactly from studying the regression of C on A and the regression of B on A, where A is the instrument. In the more general case, bounds have been developed in the literature for the causal effect of B on C, given observational data on the joint distribution of C, B and A. Using an approach based on the analysis of convex polytopes, we develop bounds for the same causal effect when given data on (C,A) and (B,A) only. The bounds developed are thus in direct analogy to the standard use of instruments in econometrics, but we make no assumption of linearity. Use of the bounds is illustrated for experiments with partial compliance. The bounds are, for example, relevant in genetic epidemiology, where the ‘Mendelian instrument ’ S represents a genotype, and where joint data on all of C, B and A may rarely be available but studies involving pairs of these may be abundant. Other examples of bounding causal effects are considered to show that the method applies to DAGs in general, subject to certain conditions. 1
Causal Bounds and Observable Constraints for Nondeterministic Models
"... Conditional independence relations involving latent variables do not necessarily imply observable independences. They may imply inequality constraints on observable parameters and causal bounds, which can be used for falsification and identification. The literature on computing such constraints ofte ..."
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Conditional independence relations involving latent variables do not necessarily imply observable independences. They may imply inequality constraints on observable parameters and causal bounds, which can be used for falsification and identification. The literature on computing such constraints often involve a deterministic underlying data generating process in a counterfactual framework. If an analyst is ignorant of the nature of the underlying mechanisms then they may wish to use a model which allows the underlying mechanisms to be probabilistic. A method of computation for a weaker model without any determinism is given here and demonstrated for the instrumental variable model, though applicable to other models. The approach is based on the analysis of mappings with convex polytopes in a decision theoretic framework and can be implemented in readily available polyhedral computation software. Well known constraints and bounds are replicated in a probabilistic model and novel ones are computed for instrumental variable models without nondeterministic versions of the randomization, exclusion restriction and monotonicity assumptions respectively.