A number of authors have considered multivariate Gaussian models for marginal independence. In this paper we develop models for binary data with the same independence structure. The models can be parameterized based on Möbius inversion and maximum likelihood estimation can be performed using a version of the Iterated Conditional Fitting algorithm. The approach is illustrated on a simple example. Relations to multivariate logistic and dependence ratio models are discussed.

Belief networks provide an important bridge between statistical modeling and expert systems. In this paper we present methods for visualizing probabilistic "evidence flows" in belief networks, thereby enabling belief networks to explain their behavior. Building on earlier research on explanation in expert systems, we present a hierarchy of explanations, ranging from simple colorings to detailed displays. Our approach complements parallel work on textual explanations in belief networks. GRAPHICAL-BELIEF, Mathsoft Inc.'s belief network software, implements the methods. 1 Introduction A fundamental reason for building a mathematical or statistical model is to foster deeper understanding of complex, real-world systems. Consequently, explanations---descriptions of the mechanisms which comprise such models---form an important part of model validation, exploration, and use. Early tests of rule-based expert system models indicated the critical need for detailed explanations in that setting (...

Both knowledge-based systems and statistical models are typically concerned with making predictions about future observables. Here we focus on assessment of predictive performance and provide two techniques for improving the predictive performance of Bayesian graphical models. First, we present Bayesian model averaging, a technique for accounting for model uncertainty. Second, we describe a technique for eliciting a prior distribution for competing models from domain experts. We explore the predictive performance of both techniques in the context of a urological diagnostic problem. KEYWORDS: Prediction; Bayesian graphical model; Bayesian network; Decomposable model; Model uncertainty; Elicitation. 1 Introduction Both statistical methods and knowledge-based systems are typically concerned with combining information from various sources to make inferences about prospective measurements. Inevitably, to combine information, we must make modeling assumptions. It follows that we should car...

Abstract. Graphical models provide a framework for exploration of multivariate dependence patterns. The connection between graph and statistical model is made by identifying the vertices of the graph with the observed variables and translating the pattern of edges in the graph into a pattern of conditional independences that is imposed on the variables ’ joint distribution. Focusing on Gaussian models, we review classical graphical models. For these models the defining conditional independences are equivalent to vanishing of certain (partial) correlation coefficients associated with individual edges that are absent from the graph. Hence, Gaussian graphical model selection can be performed by multiple testing of hypotheses about vanishing (partial) correlation coefficients. We show and exemplify how this approach allows one to perform model selection while controlling error rates for incorrect edge inclusion. Key words and phrases: Acyclic directed graph, Bayesian network, bidirected graph, chain graph, concentration graph, covariance graph, DAG, graphical model, multiple testing, undirected graph. 1.

Previous work has examined structure learning in log-linear models with `1regularization, largely focusing on the case of pairwise potentials. In this work we consider the case of models with potentials of arbitrary order, but that satisfy a hierarchical constraint. We enforce the hierarchical constraint using group `1-regularization with overlapping groups. An active set method that enforces hierarchical inclusion allows us to tractably consider the exponential number of higher-order potentials. We use a spectral projected gradient method as a subroutine for solving the overlapping group `1regularization problem, and make use of a sparse version of Dykstra's algorithm to compute the projection. Our experiments indicate that this model gives equal or better test set likelihood compared to previous models. 1

Abstract. In the statistical literature, there has been considerable development of methods of data releases for multivariate categorical data sets, where the releases come in the form of marginal tables corresponding to subsets of the categorical variables. Very recently some of the ideas have been extended to allow for the release of combinations of mixtures of marginal tables and conditional tables for subsets of variables. Association rules can be viewed as conditional tables. In this paper we consider possible inferences an intruder can make about confidential categorical data following the release of information on one or more association rules. We illustrate this with several examples.

Abstract. The methodology of differential privacy has provided a strong definition of privacy which in some settings, using a mechanism of doubly-exponential noise addition, also allows for extraction of informative statistics from databases. A recent paper extends this approach to the release of a specified set of margins from a multi-way contingency table. Privacy protection in such settings implicitly focuses on small cell counts that might allow for the identification of units that are unique in the database. We explore how well the mechanism works in the context of a series of examples, and the extent to which the proposed differential-privacy mechanism allows for sensible inferences from the released data. 1

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In Bayesian analysis of multi-way contingency tables, the selection of a prior distribution for either the log-linear parameters or the cell probabilities parameters is a major challenge. In this paper, we define a flexible family of conjugate priors for the wide class of discrete hierarchical log-linear models, which includes the class of graphical models. These priors are defined as the Diaconis–Ylvisaker conjugate priors on the log-linear parameters subject to “baseline constraints ” under multinomial sampling. We also derive the induced prior on the cell probabilities and show that the induced prior is a generalization of the hyper Dirichlet prior. We show that this prior has several desirable properties and illustrate its usefulness by identifying the most probable decomposable, graphical and hierarchical log-linear models for a six-way contingency table. 1. Introduction. We

Quantitative research especially in the... this paper by an empirical study on coping with a chronic condition as a function of interrelationships between three sets of factors. These include background factors, illness context factors and four self-care practices. Based on a graphical chain model, the direct and indirect dependencies are revealed and discussed in comparison to the results obtained from a simple logistic regression model ignoring possible interaction effects. Both techniques are introduced from a more tutorial point of view instead of going far into technical details.