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44
On Learning the Derivatives of an Unknown Mapping with Multilayer Feedforward Networks
, 1989
"... Daniel F. Mccaffrey, and Douglas W. Nychka for helpful discussions relating to Recently, multiple input, single output, single hidden layer, feedforward neural networks have been shown to be capable of approximating a nonlinear map and its partial derivatives. Specifically, neural nets have been sho ..."
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Cited by 67 (7 self)
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Daniel F. Mccaffrey, and Douglas W. Nychka for helpful discussions relating to Recently, multiple input, single output, single hidden layer, feedforward neural networks have been shown to be capable of approximating a nonlinear map and its partial derivatives. Specifically, neural nets have been shown to be dense in various Sobolev spaces (Hornik, Stinchcombe and White, 1989). Building upon this result, we show that a net can be trained so that the map and its derivatives are learned. Specifically, we use a result of Gallant (1987b) to show that least squares and similar estimates are strongly consistent in Sobolev norm provided the number of hidden units and the size of the training set increase together. We illustrate these results by an applic~tion to the inverse problem of chaotic dynamics: recovery of a nonlinear map from a time series of iterates. These results extend automatically to nets that embed the single hidden layer, feedforward network as a special case. 1.1 1.
Finding Chaos in Noisy Systems
, 1991
"... In the past twenty years there has been much interest in the physical and biological sciences in nonlinear dynamical systems that appear to have random, unpredictable behavior. One important parameter of a dynamic system is the dominant Lyapunov exponent (LE). When the behavior of the system is comp ..."
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Cited by 49 (1 self)
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In the past twenty years there has been much interest in the physical and biological sciences in nonlinear dynamical systems that appear to have random, unpredictable behavior. One important parameter of a dynamic system is the dominant Lyapunov exponent (LE). When the behavior of the system is compared for two similar initial conditions, this exponent is related to the rate at which the subsequent trajectories diverge. A bounded system with a positive LE is one operational definition of chaotic behavior. Most methods for determining the LE have assumed thousands of observations generated from carefully controlled physical experiments. Less attention has been given to estimating the LE for biological and economic systems that are subjected to random perturbations and observed over a limited amount of time. Using nonparametric regression techniques (Neural Networks and Thin Plate Splines) it is possible to consistently estimate the LE. The properties of these methods have been studied using simulated data and are applied to a biological time series: marten fur returns for the Hudson Bay Company (18201900). Based on a nonparametric analysis there is little evidence for lowdimensional chaos in these data. Although these methods appear to work well for systems perturbed by small amounts of noise, finding chaos in a system with a significant stochastic component may be difficult.
ConstrainedRealization MonteCarlo method for Hypothesis Testing
 Physica D
"... : We compare two theoretically distinct approaches to generating artificial (or "surrogate") data for testing hypotheses about a given data set. The first and more straightforward approach is to fit a single "best" model to the original data, and then to generate surrogate data s ..."
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Cited by 42 (1 self)
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: We compare two theoretically distinct approaches to generating artificial (or "surrogate") data for testing hypotheses about a given data set. The first and more straightforward approach is to fit a single "best" model to the original data, and then to generate surrogate data sets that are "typical realizations" of that model. The second approach concentrates not on the model but directly on the original data; it attempts to constrain the surrogate data sets so that they exactly agree with the original data for a specified set of sample statistics. Examples of these two approaches are provided for two simple cases: a test for deviations from a gaussian distribution, and a test for serial dependence in a time series. Additionally, we consider tests for nonlinearity in time series based on a Fourier transform (FT) method and on more conventional autoregressive movingaverage (ARMA) fits to the data. The comparative performance of hypothesis testing schemes based on these two approaches...
Generalized Redundancies for Time Series Analysis
 Physica D
, 1995
"... Extensions to various informationtheoretic quantities (such as entropy, redundancy, and mutual information) are discussed in the context of their role in nonlinear time series analysis. We also discuss "linearized" versions of these quantities and their use as benchmarks in tests for nonl ..."
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Cited by 29 (0 self)
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Extensions to various informationtheoretic quantities (such as entropy, redundancy, and mutual information) are discussed in the context of their role in nonlinear time series analysis. We also discuss "linearized" versions of these quantities and their use as benchmarks in tests for nonlinearity. Many of these quantities can be expressed in terms of the generalized correlation integral, and this expression permits us to more clearly exhibit the relationships of these quantities to each other and to other commonly used nonlinear statistics (such as the BDS and GreenSavit statistics). Further, numerical estimation of these quantities is found to be more accurate and more efficient when the the correlation integral is employed in the computation. Finally, we consider several "local" versions of these quantities, including a local KolmogorovSinai entropy, which gives an estimate of variability of the shortterm predictability. 1 Introduction In Shaw's influential (and prizewinning)...
On the Evidence for LowDimensional Chaos in an Epileptic Electroencephalogram
, 1995
"... : A variant of the method of surrogate data is applied to a single time series from an electroencephalogram (EEG) recording of a patient undergoing an epileptic seizure. The time series is a nearly periodic pattern of spikeandwave complexes. The surrogate data sets are generated by shuffling the t ..."
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Cited by 21 (0 self)
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: A variant of the method of surrogate data is applied to a single time series from an electroencephalogram (EEG) recording of a patient undergoing an epileptic seizure. The time series is a nearly periodic pattern of spikeandwave complexes. The surrogate data sets are generated by shuffling the the individual spikeandwave cycles, and correspond to a null hypothesis that there is no deterministic structure in the cycletocycle variability of the original data. Using estimates of autocorrelation, correlation dimension, and Lyapunov exponent as discriminating statistics, the evidence for dynamical correlations between successive spikeandwave patterns is evaluated both formally and informally. Contents: 1) Introduction 2) The Data 3) The Null Hypothesis 4) Analysis 4.1) Autocorrelation 4.2) Correlation dimension 4.3) Lyapunov exponent 4.4) Interspike variation 5) Conclusion 1 Introduction Chaos provides an alluring explanation for erratic behavior, because it can be exhibited by...
Quantitative analysis of robotenvironment interaction  Towards . . .
, 2003
"... Quantitative descriptions of a physical system’s behaviour form the backbone of the scientific method used in the natural sciences. They allow the principled determination of experimental parameters, a clear and unambiguous representation of experiments, and independent replication and verification ..."
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Cited by 10 (3 self)
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Quantitative descriptions of a physical system’s behaviour form the backbone of the scientific method used in the natural sciences. They allow the principled determination of experimental parameters, a clear and unambiguous representation of experiments, and independent replication and verification of experimental results. In mobile robotics to date, quantitative descriptions of robotenvironment interaction remain the exception, chiefly due to the lack of those descriptions. Instead, qualitative descriptions of experiments and existence proofs (i.e. unvalidated experimental results) are the norm. This paper discusses this problem, and presents a novel method of describing robotenvironment interaction quantitatively — a first step towards scientific mobile robotics. The application of this novel method is illustrated on an example taken from mobile robotics: the comparison between a Nomad 200 mobile robot and its computer model.
A new test for chaos in deterministic systems
 Proc. R. Soc. London A
, 2004
"... We describe a new test for determining whether a given deterministic dynamical system is chaotic or nonchaotic. In contrast to the usual method of computing the maximal Lyapunov exponent, our method is applied directly to the time series data and does not require phase space reconstruction. Moreover ..."
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Cited by 8 (2 self)
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We describe a new test for determining whether a given deterministic dynamical system is chaotic or nonchaotic. In contrast to the usual method of computing the maximal Lyapunov exponent, our method is applied directly to the time series data and does not require phase space reconstruction. Moreover, the dimension of the dynamical system and the form of the underlying equations is irrelevant. The input is the time series data and the output is 0 or 1 depending on whether the dynamics is nonchaotic or chaotic. The test is universally applicable to any deterministic dynamical system, in particular to ordinary and partial differential equations, and to maps. φ(x(s))cos(θ(s))ds where φ is an observable on the underlying dynamics x(t) and θ(t) = ct+ ∫ t 0 φ(x(s))ds. The constant c> 0 is fixed arbitrarily. We define the meansquaredisplacement M(t) for p(t) and set K = limt→ ∞ logM(t) / log t. Using recent developments in ergodic theory, we argue that typically K = 0 signifying nonchaotic dynamics or K = 1 signifying chaotic dynamics. Our diagnostic is the real valued function p(t) = ∫ t
Nonparametric Neural Network Estimation of Lyapunov Exponents and a Direct Test for Chaos
, 2000
"... This paper derives the asymptotic distribution of the nonparametric neural network estimator of the Lyapunov exponent in a noisy system. Positivity of the Lyapunov exponent is an operational definition of chaos. We introduce a statistical framework for testing the chaotic hypothesis based on the est ..."
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Cited by 8 (2 self)
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This paper derives the asymptotic distribution of the nonparametric neural network estimator of the Lyapunov exponent in a noisy system. Positivity of the Lyapunov exponent is an operational definition of chaos. We introduce a statistical framework for testing the chaotic hypothesis based on the estimated Lyapunov exponents and a consistent variance estimator. A simulation study to evaluate small sample performance is reported. We also apply our procedures to daily stock return data. In most cases, the hypothesis of chaos in the stock return series is rejected at the 1 % level with an exception in some higher power transformed absolute returns.
Chaotic time series Part I: Estimation of some invariant properties in state space
 Modeling, Identification and Control, 15(4):205  224
, 1995
"... Certain deterministic nonlinear systems may show chaotic behaviour. Time series derived from such systems seem stochastic when analyzed with linear techniques. However, uncovering the deterministic structure is important because it allows constructing more realistic and better models and thus impro ..."
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Cited by 8 (5 self)
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Certain deterministic nonlinear systems may show chaotic behaviour. Time series derived from such systems seem stochastic when analyzed with linear techniques. However, uncovering the deterministic structure is important because it allows constructing more realistic and better models and thus improved predictive capabilities. This paper provides a review of two main key features of chaotic systems, the dimensions of their strange attractors and the Lyapunov exponents. The emphasis is on state space reconstruction techniques that are used to estimate these properties, given scalar observations. Data generated from equations known to display chaotic behaviour are used for illustration. A compilation of applications to real data from widely different fields is given. If chaos is found to be present, one may proceed to build nonlinear models, which is the topic of the second paper in this series.
On the Estimation of Topological Entropy
 Journal of Statistical Physics
, 1993
"... We study here a method for estimating the topological entropy of a smooth dynamical system. Our method is based on estimating the logarithmic growth rates of suitably chosen curves in the system. We present two algorithms for this purpose and we analyze each according to its strengths and pitfalls. ..."
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Cited by 7 (1 self)
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We study here a method for estimating the topological entropy of a smooth dynamical system. Our method is based on estimating the logarithmic growth rates of suitably chosen curves in the system. We present two algorithms for this purpose and we analyze each according to its strengths and pitfalls. We also contrast these with a method based on the definition of topological entropy, using (n; ffl)spanning sets. 1 Introduction and Preliminaries The topological entropy of a system is a quantitative measure of its orbit complexity. In a certain sense, it is the maximum amount of information lost per unit time by the system using measurements with finite precision. As such, the entropy is an important invariant to know. Since the definition of the entropy requires an exponentially growing number of objects, it is impractical to expect that the definition can effectively be used to estimate it. Fortunately, there are several recent theorems which aid in its estimation. Block and Keesling ...