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160
Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk
 THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE • VOL. LVI
, 2001
"... This paper uses a disaggregated approach to study the volatility of common stocks at the market, industry, and firm levels. Over the period 1962–1997 there has been a noticeable increase in firmlevel volatility relative to market volatility. Accordingly, correlations among individual stocks and the ..."
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Cited by 270 (13 self)
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This paper uses a disaggregated approach to study the volatility of common stocks at the market, industry, and firm levels. Over the period 1962–1997 there has been a noticeable increase in firmlevel volatility relative to market volatility. Accordingly, correlations among individual stocks and the explanatory power of the market model for a typical stock have declined, whereas the number of stocks needed to achieve a given level of diversification has increased. All the volatility measures move together countercyclically and help to predict GDP growth. Market volatility tends to lead the other volatility series. Factors that may be responsible for these findings are suggested.
Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test
 REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES
, 1988
"... In this article we test the random walk hypothesis for weekly stock market returns by comparing variance estimators derived from data sampled at different frequencies. The random walk model is strongly rejected for the entire sample period (19621985) and for all subperiod for a variety of aggrega ..."
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Cited by 229 (14 self)
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In this article we test the random walk hypothesis for weekly stock market returns by comparing variance estimators derived from data sampled at different frequencies. The random walk model is strongly rejected for the entire sample period (19621985) and for all subperiod for a variety of aggregate returns indexes and sizesorted portofolios. Although the rejections are due largely to the behavior of small stocks, they cannot be attributed completely to the effects of infrequent trading or timevarying volatilities. Moreover, the rejection of the random walk for weekly returns does not support a meanreverting model of asset prices.
Testing ContinuousTime Models of the Spot Interest Rate
 Review of Financial Studies
, 1996
"... Different continuoustime models for interest rates coexist in the literature. We test parametric models by comparing their implied parametric density to the same density estimated nonparametrically. We do not replace the continuoustime model by discrete approximations, even though the data are rec ..."
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Cited by 196 (7 self)
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Different continuoustime models for interest rates coexist in the literature. We test parametric models by comparing their implied parametric density to the same density estimated nonparametrically. We do not replace the continuoustime model by discrete approximations, even though the data are recorded at discrete intervals. The principal source of rejection of existing models is the strong nonlinearity of the drift. Around its mean, where the drift is essentially zero, the spot rate behaves like a random walk. The drift then meanreverts strongly when far away from the mean. The volatility is higher when away from the mean. The continuoustime financial theory has developed extensive tools to price derivative securities when the underlying traded asset(s) or nontraded factor(s) follow stochastic differential equations [see Merton (1990) for examples]. However, as a practical matter, how to specify an appropriate stochastic differential equation is for the most part an unanswered question. For example, many different continuoustime The comments and suggestions of Kerry Back (the editor) and an anonymous referee were very helpful. I am also grateful to George Constantinides,
Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: RealTime Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange
, 2002
"... Using a new dataset consisting of six years of realtime exchange rate quotations, macroeconomic expectations, and macroeconomic realizations (announcements), we characterize the conditional means of U.S. dollar spot exchange rates versus German Mark, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and th ..."
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Cited by 137 (13 self)
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Using a new dataset consisting of six years of realtime exchange rate quotations, macroeconomic expectations, and macroeconomic realizations (announcements), we characterize the conditional means of U.S. dollar spot exchange rates versus German Mark, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and the Euro. In particular, we find that announcement surprises (that is, divergences between expectations and realizations, or "news") produce conditional mean jumps; hence highfrequency exchange rate dynamics are linked to fundamentals. The details of the linkage are intriguing and include announcement timing and sign effects. The sign effect refers to the fact that the market reacts to news in an asymmetric fashion: bad news has greater impact than good news, which we relate to recent theoretical work on information processing and price discovery. Key Words: Exchange Rates; Macroeconomic News Announcements; Jumps; Market Microstructure; HighFrequency Data; Expectations Data; Anticipations Data; Order Flow; Asset Return Volatility; Forecasting.
Stock Prices and Volume
, 1990
"... We undertake a comprehensive investigation of price and volume comovement using daily New York Stock Exchange data from 1928 to 1987. We adjust the data to take into account wellknown calendar effects and longrun trends. To describt tbe process, we use a seminonparametric estimate of the joint de ..."
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Cited by 111 (9 self)
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We undertake a comprehensive investigation of price and volume comovement using daily New York Stock Exchange data from 1928 to 1987. We adjust the data to take into account wellknown calendar effects and longrun trends. To describt tbe process, we use a seminonparametric estimate of the joint density of current price change and volume conditional on past price changes and volume. Four empirical regularities are found: 1) positive correlation between conditional volatility and volume, 2) large price movements are followed by high volume, 3) conditioning on lagged volume substantially attenuates the "leverage " effect, and 4) after conditioning on lagged volume, there is a positive risk/return relation.
A Model of Intertemporal Asset Prices Under Asymmetric Information
, 1993
"... This paper presents a dynamic assetpricing model under asymmetric information. Investors have different information concerning the future growth rate of dividends. They rationally extract information from prices as well as dividends and maximize their expected utility. The model has a closedform s ..."
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Cited by 96 (10 self)
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This paper presents a dynamic assetpricing model under asymmetric information. Investors have different information concerning the future growth rate of dividends. They rationally extract information from prices as well as dividends and maximize their expected utility. The model has a closedform solution to the rational expectations equilibrium. We find that existence of uninformed investors increases the risk premium. Supply shocks can affect the risk premium only under asymmetric information. Information asymmetry among investors can increase price volatility and negative autocorrelation in returns. Lessinformed investors may rztionally behave like price chasers.
Continuous Record Asymptotics for Rolling Sample Variance Estimators
 Econometrica
, 1996
"... It is widely known that conditional covariances of asset returns change over time. ..."
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Cited by 91 (0 self)
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It is widely known that conditional covariances of asset returns change over time.
How often to sample a continuoustime process in the presence of market microstructure noise
 Review of Financial Studies
, 2005
"... In theory, the sum of squares of log returns sampled at high frequency estimates their variance. When market microstructure noise is present but unaccounted for, however, we show that the optimal sampling frequency is finite and derives its closedform expression. But even with optimal sampling, usi ..."
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Cited by 90 (13 self)
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In theory, the sum of squares of log returns sampled at high frequency estimates their variance. When market microstructure noise is present but unaccounted for, however, we show that the optimal sampling frequency is finite and derives its closedform expression. But even with optimal sampling, using say 5min returns when transactions are recorded every second, a vast amount of data is discarded, in contradiction to basic statistical principles. We demonstrate that modeling the noise and using all the data is a better solution, even if one misspecifies the noise distribution. So the answer is: sample as often as possible. Over the past few years, price data sampled at very high frequency have become increasingly available in the form of the Olsen dataset of currency exchange rates or the TAQ database of NYSE stocks. If such data were not affected by market microstructure noise, the realized volatility of the process (i.e., the average sum of squares of logreturns sampled at high frequency) would estimate the returns ’ variance, as is well known. In fact, sampling as often as possible would theoretically produce in the limit a perfect estimate of that variance. We start by asking whether it remains optimal to sample the price process at very high frequency in the presence of market microstructure noise, consistently with the basic statistical principle that, ceteris paribus, more data are preferred to less. We first show that, if noise is present but unaccounted for, then the optimal sampling frequency is finite, and we We are grateful for comments and suggestions from the editor, Maureen O’Hara, and two anonymous