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General methods for monitoring convergence of iterative simulations
 J. Comput. Graph. Statist
, 1998
"... We generalize the method proposed by Gelman and Rubin (1992a) for monitoring the convergence of iterative simulations by comparing between and within variances of multiple chains, in order to obtain a family of tests for convergence. We review methods of inference from simulations in order to develo ..."
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Cited by 203 (8 self)
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We generalize the method proposed by Gelman and Rubin (1992a) for monitoring the convergence of iterative simulations by comparing between and within variances of multiple chains, in order to obtain a family of tests for convergence. We review methods of inference from simulations in order to develop convergencemonitoring summaries that are relevant for the purposes for which the simulations are used. We recommend applying a battery of tests for mixing based on the comparison of inferences from individual sequences and from the mixture of sequences. Finally, we discuss multivariate analogues, for assessing convergence of several parameters simultaneously.
Markov Chain Monte Carlo Model Determination for Hierarchical and Graphical Loglinear Models
 Biometrika
, 1996
"... this paper, we will only consider undirected graphical models. For details of Bayesian model selection for directed graphical models see Madigan et al (1995). An (undirected) graphical model is determined by a set of conditional independence constraints of the form `fl 1 is independent of fl 2 condi ..."
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Cited by 55 (8 self)
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this paper, we will only consider undirected graphical models. For details of Bayesian model selection for directed graphical models see Madigan et al (1995). An (undirected) graphical model is determined by a set of conditional independence constraints of the form `fl 1 is independent of fl 2 conditional on all other fl i 2 C'. Graphical models are so called because they can each be represented as a graph with vertex set C and an edge between each pair fl 1 and fl 2 unless fl 1 and fl 2 are conditionally independent as described above. Darroch, Lauritzen and Speed (1980) show that each graphical loglinear model is hierarchical, with generators given by the cliques (complete subgraphs) of the graph. The total number of possible graphical models is clearly given by 2 (
Variable Selection for Regression Models
, 1998
"... A simple method for subset selection of independent variables in regression models is proposed. We expand the usual regression equation to an equation that incorporates all possible subsets of predictors by adding indicator variables as parameters. The vector of indicator variables dictates which pr ..."
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Cited by 41 (2 self)
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A simple method for subset selection of independent variables in regression models is proposed. We expand the usual regression equation to an equation that incorporates all possible subsets of predictors by adding indicator variables as parameters. The vector of indicator variables dictates which predictors to include. Several choices of priors can be employed for the unknown regression coefficients and the unknown indicator parameters. The posterior distribution of the indicator vector is approximated by means of the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We select subsets with high posterior probabilities. In addition to linear models, we consider generalized linear models.
The Modern Call Center: A MultiDisciplinary Perspective on Operations Management Research
"... Call centers are an increasingly important part of today’s business world, employing millions of agents across the globe and serving as a primary customerfacing channel for firms in many different industries. Call centers have been a fertile area for operations management researchers in several dom ..."
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Cited by 32 (0 self)
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Call centers are an increasingly important part of today’s business world, employing millions of agents across the globe and serving as a primary customerfacing channel for firms in many different industries. Call centers have been a fertile area for operations management researchers in several domains, including forecasting, capacity planning, queueing, and personnel scheduling. In addition, as telecommunications and information technology have advanced over the past several years, the operational challenges faced by call center managers have become more complicated. Issues associated with human resources management, sales, and marketing have also become increasingly relevant to call center operations and associated academic research. In this paper, we provide a survey of the recent literature on call center operations management. Along with traditional research areas, we pay special attention to new management challenges that have been caused by emerging technologies, to behavioral issues associated with both call center agents and customers, and to the interface between call center operations and sales and marketing. We identify a handful of broad themes for future investigation while also pointing out several very specific research opportunities.
The modern callcenter: A multidisciplinary perspective on operations management research
"... Call centers are an increasingly important part of today’s business world, employing millions of agents across the globe and serving as a primary customerfacing channel for firms in many different industries. Call centers have been a fertile area for operations management researchers in several are ..."
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Cited by 23 (3 self)
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Call centers are an increasingly important part of today’s business world, employing millions of agents across the globe and serving as a primary customerfacing channel for firms in many different industries. Call centers have been a fertile area for operations management researchers in several areas, including forecasting, capacity planning, queueing, and personnel scheduling. In addition, as telecommunications and information technology have advanced over the past several years, the operational challenges faced by call center managers have become more complicated as a result. Issues associated with human resources management, sales, and marketing have also become increasingly relevant to call center operations and associated academic research. In this paper, we provide a survey of the recent literature on call center operations management. Along with traditional research areas, we pay special attention to new management challenges that have been caused by emerging technologies, to behavioral issues associated with both call center agents and customers, and to the interface between call center operations and sales and marketing. We identify a handful of broad themes for future investigation while also pointing out several very specific research opportunities.
Adaptive Bayesian Regression Splines in Semiparametric Generalized Linear Models
 Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics
, 1998
"... This paper presents a fully Bayesian approach to regression splines with automatic knot selection in generalized semiparametric models for fundamentally nonGaussian responses. In a basis function representation of the regression spline we use a Bspline basis. The reversible jump Markov chain Mon ..."
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Cited by 20 (2 self)
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This paper presents a fully Bayesian approach to regression splines with automatic knot selection in generalized semiparametric models for fundamentally nonGaussian responses. In a basis function representation of the regression spline we use a Bspline basis. The reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo method allows for simultaneous estimation both of the number of knots and the knot placement, together with the unknown basis coefficients determining the shape of the spline. Since the spline can be represented as design matrix times unknown (basis) coefficients, it is straightforward to include additionally a vector of covariates with fixed effects, yielding a semiparametric model. The method is illustrated with data sets from the literature for curve estimation in generalized linear models, the Tokyo rainfall data and the coal mining disaster data, and by a creditscoring problem for generalized semiparametric models. Keywords: Bspline basis; knot selection; nonnormal response...
Bayesian Tests And Model Diagnostics In Conditionally Independent Hierarchical Models
 Journal of the American Statistical Association
, 1994
"... Consider the conditionally independent hierarchical model (CIHM) where observations y i are independently distributed from f(y i j` i ), the parameters ` i are independently distributed from distributions g(`j), and the hyperparameters are distributed according to a distribution h(). The posterior ..."
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Cited by 16 (1 self)
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Consider the conditionally independent hierarchical model (CIHM) where observations y i are independently distributed from f(y i j` i ), the parameters ` i are independently distributed from distributions g(`j), and the hyperparameters are distributed according to a distribution h(). The posterior distribution of all parameters of the CIHM can be efficiently simulated by Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) algorithms. Although these simulation algorithms have facilitated the application of CIHM's, they generally have not addressed the problem of computing quantities useful in model selection. This paper explores how MCMC simulation algorithms and other related computational algorithms can be used to compute Bayes factors that are useful in criticizing a particular CIHM. In the case where the CIHM models a belief that the parameters are exchangeable or lie on a regression surface, the Bayes factor can measure the consistency of the data with the structural prior belief. Bayes factors can ...
Diagnostic Checks for DiscreteData Regression Models Using Posterior Predictive Simulations
, 1997
"... Model checking with discrete data regressions can be difficult because usual methods such as residual plots have complicated reference distributions that depend on the parameters in the model. Posterior predictive checks have been proposed as a Bayesian way to average the results of goodnessoffit ..."
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Cited by 11 (7 self)
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Model checking with discrete data regressions can be difficult because usual methods such as residual plots have complicated reference distributions that depend on the parameters in the model. Posterior predictive checks have been proposed as a Bayesian way to average the results of goodnessoffit tests in the presence of uncertainty in estimation of the parameters. We try this approach using a variety of discrepancy variables for generalized linear models fit to a historical data set on behavioral learning. We then discuss the general applicability of our findings in the context of a recent applied example on which we have worked. We find that the following discrepancy variables work well, in the sense of being easy to interpret and sensitive to important model failures: (a) structured displays of the entire data set, (b) general discrepancy variables based on plots of binned or smoothed residuals versus predictors, and (c) specific discrepancy variables created based on the particul...
Gibbs Sampling
 Journal of the American Statistical Association
, 1995
"... 8> R f(`)d`. To marginalize, say for ` i ; requires h(` i ) = R f(`)d` (i) = R f(`)d` where ` (i) denotes all components of ` save ` i : To obtain Eg(` i ) requires similar integration; to obtain the marginal distribution of say g(`) or its expectation requires similar integration. When p is l ..."
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Cited by 10 (0 self)
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8> R f(`)d`. To marginalize, say for ` i ; requires h(` i ) = R f(`)d` (i) = R f(`)d` where ` (i) denotes all components of ` save ` i : To obtain Eg(` i ) requires similar integration; to obtain the marginal distribution of say g(`) or its expectation requires similar integration. When p is large (as it will be in the applications we envision) such integration is analytically infeasible (the socalled curse of dimensionality*). Gibbs sampling provides a Monte Carlo approach for carrying out such integrations. In what sorts of settings would we have need to mar
Bayesian Modelling of Outstanding Liabilities Incorporating Claim Count Uncertainty
 North American Actuarial Journal
, 1999
"... This paper deals with the prediction of the amount of outstanding claims that an insurance company will pay in the near future. We consider various competing models using Bayesian theory and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Claim counts are used in order to add a further hierarchical stage in the u ..."
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Cited by 9 (0 self)
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This paper deals with the prediction of the amount of outstanding claims that an insurance company will pay in the near future. We consider various competing models using Bayesian theory and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Claim counts are used in order to add a further hierarchical stage in the usual lognormal and statespace models. By this way, we incorporate information from both the outstanding claim amounts and counts data resulting to new model formulations. We provide implementation details and illustrations with real insurance data. Keywords: Lognormal model; Markov chain Monte Carlo; Missing values; Multinomial model; State space models. 1 Introduction Insurance companies often do not pay the outstanding claims as soon as they occur. Instead, claims are settled with a time delay which may be years or, in some extreme cases, decades. Reserving for outstanding claims is of central interest in actuarial practice and has attracted the attention of many researchers because of ...