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of eleven Corps personnel was supplemented by the involvement of personnel from the Office of the Chief of Engineers and the WRSC. These personnel were interviewed along with personnel from a wide variety of Corps offices representing virtually every user of cost data throughout the agency to ascertain the range of NED and related cost issues of concern to them. The results of the interviews were compiled to identify those issues that were of interest to a significant number of interviewees. A comprehensive list of cost-related terms used by Corps personnel was compiled. The lists of issues and terms were presented to the FRG along with a draft report outline at a July 7, 1992 meeting of the FRG. From these materials a revised and detailed draft report outline was prepared by the FRG. The FRG group reviewed and commented on a draft report during the fall of 1992. The draft was revised to reflect the views of the FRG and submitted for another review. The revised draft and comments wer

The benefit/cost (B/C) ratio method is utilized in many government and public work projects to determine if the expected benefits provide an acceptable return on the estimated investment and costs. Many authors have studied probabilistic cash flows in recent years. They introduced some analytical methods which determine the probability distribution function of the net present value and internal rate of return of a series of random discrete cash flows. They considered serially correlated cash flows and the uncertainty of future capital investment and reinvestment rates and they presented some formulae for the B/C ratio for probabilistic cash flows. In the paper, the expected value and the variance of a probabilistic cash flow are obtained by means of moments. Then a probabilistic B/C ratio is given. Fuzzy set theory has the capability of representing vague knowledge and allows mathematical operators and programming to be applied to the fuzzy domain. The theory is primarily concerned with quantifying the vagueness in human thoughts and perceptions. The fuzzy B/C ratios are developed for a single investment project and for multiple projects having equal or different lives. Keywords: economic justification, risk, fuzzy set theory, B/C ratio 1.

This paper examines possible barriers to securitization, focusing on behavioral responses to such novel instruments. These barriers include the difficulties of conveying the associated risks, even to investors who are sophisticated about finance (but still uncertain about model risk and structural uncertainties). Our analyses will draw on results in behavioral decision making and psychology. They will lead to proposals for empirical research and general strategies for making securities design more consonant with investor behavior.

while working for The Greeley-Polhemus Group, Inc. (GPG) under contract to IWR. This manual would not be complete without an acknowledgement of the Corps personnel responsible for its preparation and the process by which they guided its formation. From the outset, the content of this manual has been the invention of the IWR and the Field Review Group (FRG) charged with its oversight. The FRG of eleven Corps personnel was supplemented by the involvement of personnel from the Office of the Chief of Engineers and the WRSC. These personnel were interviewed along with personnel from a wide variety of Corps offices representing virtually every user of cost data throughout the agency to ascertain the range of NED and related cost issues of concern to them. The results of the interviews were compiled to identify those issues that were of interest to a significant number of interviewees. A comprehensive list of cost-related terms used by Corps personnel was compiled. The lists of issues and terms were presented to the FRG along with a draft report outline at a July 7, 1992 meeting of the FRG. From these materials a revised and detailed draft

Appraisals typically are conducted using four standard methods approved by the American Society of Appraisers. For large-scale, technically unique projects, such as chemical and power plants, and old industrial practices, these standard methods are insufficient. These types of projects contain political, technical, and economic risks that are not accounted for in standard valuation methods. To include these risks in an appraisal, a Monte Carlo simulation method can be used. Probability distributions are used to model the appropriate uncertainty. Modeling future decisions that may have to be made concerning the project can also be included to add insight to the risk involved. A case study of a nuclear power plant is presented. The use of Monte Carlo methods and the modeling of future decisions decreased the worth of the plant by 28% as compared to a standard income capitalization method.

BACKGROUND: In a highly publicized joint report, the