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The crosssection of expected stock returns
 Journal of Finance
, 1992
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Cited by 1254 (18 self)
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Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR ' s Terms and Conditions of Use, available at
Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous
 Journal of Financial Economics
, 1976
"... The validity of the classic BlackScholes option pricing formula dcpcnds on the capability of investors to follow a dynamic portfolio strategy in the stock that replicates the payoff structure to the option. The critical assumption required for such a strategy to be feasible, is that the underlying ..."
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Cited by 688 (1 self)
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The validity of the classic BlackScholes option pricing formula dcpcnds on the capability of investors to follow a dynamic portfolio strategy in the stock that replicates the payoff structure to the option. The critical assumption required for such a strategy to be feasible, is that the underlying stock return dynamics can be described by a stochastic process with a continuous sample path. In this paper, an option pricing formula is derived for the moregeneral cast when the underlying stock returns are gcncrated by a mixture of both continuous and jump processes. The derived formula has most of the attractive features of the original Black&holes formula in that it does not dcpcnd on investor prcfcrenccs or knowledge of the expcctsd return on the underlying stock. Morcovcr, the same analysis applied to the options can bc extcndcd to the pricingofcorporatc liabilities. 1. Intruduction In their classic paper on the theory of option pricing, Black and Scholcs (1973) prcscnt a mode of an:llysis that has rcvolutionizcd the theory of corporate liability pricing. In part, their approach was a breakthrough because it leads to pricing formulas using. for the most part, only obscrvablc variables. In particular,
Market Efficiency, LongTerm Returns, and Behavioral Finance
, 1998
"... Market e#ciency survives the challenge from the literature on longterm return anomalies. Consistent with the market e#ciency hypothesis that the anomalies are chance results, apparent overreaction to information is about as common as underreaction, and postevent continuation of preevent abnormal ..."
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Cited by 510 (4 self)
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Market e#ciency survives the challenge from the literature on longterm return anomalies. Consistent with the market e#ciency hypothesis that the anomalies are chance results, apparent overreaction to information is about as common as underreaction, and postevent continuation of preevent abnormal returns is about as frequent as postevent reversal. Most important, consistent with the market e#ciency prediction that apparent anomalies can be due to methodology, most longterm return anomalies tend to disappear with reasonable changes in technique. # 1998 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.
A Simple Model of Capital Market Equilibrium with Incomplete Information
 Journal of Finance
, 1987
"... The sphere of modern financial economics encompases finance, micro investment theory and much of the economics of uncertainty. As is evident from its influence on other branches of economics including public finance, industrial organization and monetary theory, the boundaries of this sphere are both ..."
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Cited by 459 (2 self)
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The sphere of modern financial economics encompases finance, micro investment theory and much of the economics of uncertainty. As is evident from its influence on other branches of economics including public finance, industrial organization and monetary theory, the boundaries of this sphere are both permeable and flexible. The complex interactions of time and uncertainty guarantee intellectual challenge and intrinsic excitement to the study of financial economics. Indeed, the mathematics of the subject contain some of the most interesting applications of probability and optimization theory. But for all its mathematical refinement, the research has nevertheless had a direct and significant influence on practice. It was not always thus. Thirty years ago, finance theory was little more than a collection of anecdotes, rules of thumb, and manipulations of accounting data with an almost exclusive focus on corporate financial management. There is no need in this meeting of the guild to recount the subsequent evolution from this conceptual potpourri to a rigorous economic
A unified theory of underreaction, momentum trading and overreaction in asset markets
, 1999
"... We model a market populated by two groups of boundedly rational agents: “newswatchers” and “momentum traders.” Each newswatcher observes some private information, but fails to extract other newswatchers’ information from prices. If information diffuses gradually across the population, prices underre ..."
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Cited by 381 (23 self)
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We model a market populated by two groups of boundedly rational agents: “newswatchers” and “momentum traders.” Each newswatcher observes some private information, but fails to extract other newswatchers’ information from prices. If information diffuses gradually across the population, prices underreact in the short run. The underreaction means that the momentum traders can profit by trendchasing. However, if they can only implement simple (i.e., univariate) strategies, their attempts at arbitrage must inevitably lead to overreaction at long horizons. In addition to providing a unified account of under and overreactions, the model generates several other distinctive implications.
The performance of mutual funds in the period 19451964
 Journal of Finance
, 1968
"... In this paper I derive a riskadjusted measure of portfolio performance (now known as "Jensen's Alpha") that estimates how much a manager's forecasting ability contributes to the fund's returns. The measure is based on the theory of the pricing of capital assets by Sharpe (1 ..."
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Cited by 380 (0 self)
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In this paper I derive a riskadjusted measure of portfolio performance (now known as "Jensen's Alpha") that estimates how much a manager's forecasting ability contributes to the fund's returns. The measure is based on the theory of the pricing of capital assets by Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965a) and Treynor (Undated). I apply the measure to estimate the predictive ability of 115 mutual fund managers in the period 19451964—that is their ability to earn returns which are higher than those we would expect given the level of risk of each of the portfolios. The foundations of the model and the properties of the performance measure suggested here are discussed in Section II. The evidence on mutual fund performance indicates not only that these 115 mutual funds were on average not able to predict security prices well enough to outperform a buythemarketandhold policy, but also that there is very little evidence that any individual fund was able to do significantly better than that which we expected from mere random chance. It is also important to note that these conclusions hold even when we measure the fund returns gross of management expenses (that is assume their bookkeeping, research, and other expenses except brokerage commissions were obtained free). Thus on average the funds apparently were not quite successful enough in their trading activities to recoup even their brokerage expenses. Keywords: Jensen's Alpha, mutual fund performance, riskadjusted returns, forecasting ability, predictive ability.
On estimating the expected return on the market  an exploratory investigation
 Journal of Financial Economics
, 1980
"... The expected market return is a number frequently required for the solution of many investment and corporate tinance problems, but by comparison with other tinancial variables, there has been little research on estimating this expected return. Current practice for estimating the expected market retu ..."
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Cited by 342 (2 self)
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The expected market return is a number frequently required for the solution of many investment and corporate tinance problems, but by comparison with other tinancial variables, there has been little research on estimating this expected return. Current practice for estimating the expected market return adds the historical average realized excess market returns to the current observed interest rate. While this model explicitly reflects the dependence of the market return on the interest rate, it fails to account for the effect of changes in the level of market risk. Three models of equilibrium expected market returns which reflect this dependence are analyzed in this paper. Estimation procedures which incorporate the prior restriction that equilibrium expected excess returns on the market must be positive are derived and applied to return data for the period 19261978. The principal conclusions from this exploratory investigation are: (1) in estimating models of the expected market return, the nonnegativity restriction of the expected excess return should be explicitly included as part of the specification; (2) estimators which use realized returns should be adjusted for heteroscedasticity. 1.
Conditional skewness in asset pricing tests
 Journal of Finance
, 2000
"... If asset returns have systematic skewness, expected returns should include rewards for accepting this risk. We formalize this intuition with an asset pricing model that incorporates conditional skewness. Our results show that conditional skewness helps explain the crosssectional variation of expect ..."
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Cited by 203 (6 self)
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If asset returns have systematic skewness, expected returns should include rewards for accepting this risk. We formalize this intuition with an asset pricing model that incorporates conditional skewness. Our results show that conditional skewness helps explain the crosssectional variation of expected returns across assets and is significant even when factors based on size and booktomarket are included. Systematic skewness is economically important and commands a risk premium, on average, of 3.60 percent per year. Our results suggest that the momentum effect is related to systematic skewness. The low expected return momentum portfolios have higher skewness than high expected return portfolios. THE SINGLE FACTOR CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL ~CAPM! of Sharpe ~1964! and Lintner ~1965! has come under recent scrutiny. Tests indicate that the crossasset variation in expected returns cannot be explained by the market beta alone. For example, a growing number of studies show that “fundamental” variables such as size, booktomarket value, and price to earnings ratios