Probabilistic inference is an attractive approach to uncertain reasoning and empirical learning in artificial intelligence. Computational difculties arise, however, because probabilistic models with the necessary realism and flexibility lead to complex distributions over high-dimensional spaces. Related problems in other fields have been tackled using Monte Carlo methods based on sampling using Markov chains, providing a rich array of techniques that can be applied to problems in artificial intelligence. The "Metropolis algorithm" has been used to solve difficult problems in statistical physics for over forty years, and, in the last few years, the related method of "Gibbs sampling" has been applied to problems of statistical inference. Concurrently, an alternative method for solving problems in statistical physics by means of dynamical simulation has been developed as well, and has recently been unified with the Metropolis algorithm to produce the "hybrid Monte Carlo" method. In computer science, Markov chain sampling is the basis of the heuristic optimization technique of "simulated annealing", and has recently been used in randomized algorithms for approximate counting of large sets. In this review, I outline the role of probabilistic inference in artificial intelligence, and present the theory of Markov chains, and describe various Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, along with a number of supporting techniques. I try to present a comprehensive picture of the range of methods that have been developed, including techniques from the varied literature that have not yet seen wide application in artificial intelligence, but which appear relevant. As illustrative examples, I use the problems of probabilitic inference in expert systems, discovery of latent classes from data, and Bayesian learning for neural networks.

program. The authors wish to acknowledge helpful discussions with Lancelot James and Jim Pitman and the referees for useful comments. 1 We consider problems involving groups of data, where each observation within a group is a draw from a mixture model, and where it is desirable to share mixture components between groups. We assume that the number of mixture components is unknown a priori and is to be inferred from the data. In this setting it is natural to consider sets of Dirichlet processes, one for each group, where the well-known clustering property of the Dirichlet process provides a nonparametric prior for the number of mixture components within each group. Given our desire to tie the mixture models in the various groups, we consider a hierarchical model, specifically one in which the base measure for the child Dirichlet processes is itself distributed according to a Dirichlet process. Such a base measure being discrete, the child Dirichlet processes necessar-ily share atoms. Thus, as desired, the mixture models in the different groups necessarily share mixture components. We discuss representations of hierarchical Dirichlet processes in terms of

this paper we exploit Gibbs sampling to provide a likelihood framework for the analysis of stochastic volatility models, demonstrating how to perform either maximum likelihood or Bayesian estimation. The paper includes an extensive Monte Carlo experiment which compares the efficiency of the maximum likelihood estimator with that of quasi-likelihood and Bayesian estimators proposed in the literature. We also compare the fit of the stochastic volatility model to that of ARCH models using the likelihood criterion to illustrate the flexibility of the framework presented. Some key words: ARCH, Bayes estimation, Gibbs sampler, Heteroscedasticity, Maximum likelihood, Quasi-maximum likelihood, Simulation, Stochastic EM algorithm, Stochastic volatility, Stock returns. 1 INTRODUCTION

Learning visual models of object categories notoriously requires hundreds or thousands of training examples. We show that it is possible to learn much information about a category from just one, or a handful, of images. The key insight is that, rather than learning from scratch, one can take advantage of knowledge coming from previously learned categories, no matter how different these categories might be. We explore a Bayesian implementation of this idea. Object categories are represented by probabilistic models. Prior knowledge is represented as a probability density function on the parameters of these models. The posterior model for an object category is obtained by updating the prior in the light of one or more observations. We test a simple implementation of our algorithm on a database of 101 diverse object categories. We compare category models learned by an implementation of our Bayesian approach to models learned from by Maximum Likelihood (ML) and Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) methods. We find that on a database of more than 100 categories, the Bayesian approach produces informative models when the number of training examples is too small for other methods to operate successfully.

In a Bayesian mixture model it is not necessary a priori to limit the number of components to be finite. In this paper an infinite Gaussian mixture model is presented which neatly sidesteps the difficult problem of finding the "right" number of mixture components. Inference in the model is done using an efficient parameter-free Markov Chain that relies entirely on Gibbs sampling.

Abstract. Gaussian processes are a natural way of defining prior distributions over functions of one or more input variables. In a simple nonparametric regression problem, where such a function gives the mean of a Gaussian distribution for an observed response, a Gaussian process model can easily be implemented using matrix computations that are feasible for datasets of up to about a thousand cases. Hyperparameters that define the covariance function of the Gaussian process can be sampled using Markov chain methods. Regression models where the noise has a t distribution and logistic or probit models for classification applications can be implemented by sampling as well for latent values underlying the observations. Software is now available that implements these methods using covariance functions with hierarchical parameterizations. Models defined in this way can discover high-level properties of the data, such as which inputs are relevant to predicting the response. 1

We describe a hierarchical, generative model that can be viewed as a non-linear generalization of factor analysis and can be implemented in a neural network. The model uses bottom-up, top-down and lateral connections to perform Bayesian perceptual inference correctly. Once perceptual inference has been performed the connection strengths can be updated using a very simple learning rule that only requires locally available information. We demonstrate that the network learns to extract sparse, distributed, hierarchical representations.

this article then is to develop methodology for modeling the nonnormality of the ut, the vt, or both. A second departure from the model specification ( 1 ) is to allow for unknown variances in the state or observational equation, as well as for unknown parameters in the transition matrices Ft and Ht. As a third generalization we allow for nonlinear model structures; that is, X t = ft(Xt-l) q- Ut, and Yt = ht(xt) + vt, t = 1, ..., n, (2) whereft( ) and ht(. ) are given, but perhaps also depend on some unknown parameters. The experimenter may wish to entertain a variety of error distributions. Our goal throughout the article is an analysis for general state-space models that does not resort to convenient assumptions at the expense of model adequacy

Abstract. Markov chain sampling methods that automatically adapt to characteristics of the distribution being sampled can be constructed by exploiting the principle that one can sample from a distribution by sampling uniformly from the region under the plot of its density function. A Markov chain that converges to this uniform distribution can be constructed by alternating uniform sampling in the vertical direction with uniform sampling from the horizontal ‘slice ’ defined by the current vertical position, or more generally, with some update that leaves the uniform distribution over this slice invariant. Variations on such ‘slice sampling ’ methods are easily implemented for univariate distributions, and can be used to sample from a multivariate distribution by updating each variable in turn. This approach is often easier to implement than Gibbs sampling, and more efficient than simple Metropolis updates, due to the ability of slice sampling to adaptively choose the magnitude of changes made. It is therefore attractive for routine and automated use. Slice sampling methods that update all variables simultaneously are also possible. These methods can adaptively choose the magnitudes of changes made to each variable, based on the local properties of the density function. More ambitiously, such methods could potentially allow the sampling to adapt to dependencies between variables by constructing local quadratic approximations. Another approach is to improve sampling efficiency by suppressing random walks. This can be done using ‘overrelaxed ’ versions of univariate slice sampling procedures, or by using ‘reflective ’ multivariate slice sampling methods, which bounce off the edges of the slice.

We present several Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods that have been widely used in recent years in econometrics and statistics. Among these is the Gibbs sampler, which has been of particular interest to econometricians. Although the paper summarizes some of the relevant theoretical literature, its emphasis is on the presentation and explanation of applications to important models that are studied in econometrics. We include a discussion of some implementation issues, the use of the methods in connection with the EM algorithm, and how the methods can be helpful in model specification questions. Many of the applications of these methods are of particular interest to Bayesians, but we also point out ways in which frequentist statisticians may find the techniques useful.