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98
How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction: Frequency formats
 Psychological Review
, 1995
"... Is the mind, by design, predisposed against performing Bayesian inference? Previous research on base rate neglect suggests that the mind lacks the appropriate cognitive algorithms. However, any claim against the existence of an algorithm, Bayesian or otherwise, is impossible to evaluate unless one s ..."
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Cited by 220 (21 self)
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Is the mind, by design, predisposed against performing Bayesian inference? Previous research on base rate neglect suggests that the mind lacks the appropriate cognitive algorithms. However, any claim against the existence of an algorithm, Bayesian or otherwise, is impossible to evaluate unless one specifies the information format in which it is designed to operate. The authors show that Bayesian algorithms are computationally simpler in frequency formats than in the probability formats used in previous research. Frequency formats correspond to the sequential way information is acquired in natural sampling, from animal foraging to neural networks. By analyzing several thousand solutions to Bayesian problems, the authors found that when information was presented in frequency formats, statistically naive participants derived up to 50 % of all inferences by Bayesian algorithms. NonBayesian algorithms included simple versions of Fisherian and NeymanPearsonian inference. Is the mind, by design, predisposed against performing Bayesian inference? The classical probabilists of the Enlightenment, including Condorcet, Poisson, and Laplace, equated probability theory with the common sense of educated people, who were known then as “hommes éclairés.” Laplace (1814/1951) declared that “the theory of probability is at bottom nothing more than good sense reduced to a calculus which evaluates that which good minds know by a sort of instinct,
On the Reality of Cognitive Illusions
, 1996
"... The study of heuristics and biases in judgment has been criticized in several publications by G. Gigerenzer, who argues that "biases are not biases" and "heuristics are meant to explain what does not exist" (1991, p. 102). This article responds to Gigerenzer's critique and shows that it misrepresent ..."
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Cited by 94 (1 self)
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The study of heuristics and biases in judgment has been criticized in several publications by G. Gigerenzer, who argues that "biases are not biases" and "heuristics are meant to explain what does not exist" (1991, p. 102). This article responds to Gigerenzer's critique and shows that it misrepresents the authors' theoretical position and ignores critical evidence. Contrary to Gigerenzer's central empirical claim, judgments of frequency—not only subjective probabilities—are susceptible to large and systematic biases. A postscript responds to Gigerenzer's (1996) reply.
Boltzmann's Approach to Statistical Mechanics
 IN: CHANCE IN PHYSICS, FOUNDATIONS
, 2002
"... In the last quarter of the nineteenth century, Ludwig Boltzmann explained how irreversible macroscopic laws, in particular the second law of thermodynamics, originate in the timereversible laws of microscopic physics. Boltzmann's analysis, the essence of which I shall review here, is basically cor ..."
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Cited by 36 (3 self)
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In the last quarter of the nineteenth century, Ludwig Boltzmann explained how irreversible macroscopic laws, in particular the second law of thermodynamics, originate in the timereversible laws of microscopic physics. Boltzmann's analysis, the essence of which I shall review here, is basically correct. The most famous criticisms of Boltzmann's later work on the subject have little merit. Most twentieth century innovations  such as the identification of the state of a physical system with a probability distribution # on its phase space, of its thermodynamic entropy with the Gibbs entropy of #, and the invocation of the notions of ergodicity and mixing for the justification of the foundations of statistical mechanics  are thoroughly misguided.
A Dialogue Concerning Two World Systems: InfoComputational vs. Mechanistic
, 2009
"... www.idt.mdh.se/personal/gdc & www.typos.de ..."
Screening the graviton background, graviton pairing, and Newtonian gravity. [grqc/0207006
"... It is shown that screening the background of superstrong interacting gravitons creates for any pair of bodies as an attraction force as well an repulsion force due to pressure of gravitons. For single gravitons, these forces are approximately balanced, but each of them is much bigger than a force o ..."
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Cited by 16 (13 self)
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It is shown that screening the background of superstrong interacting gravitons creates for any pair of bodies as an attraction force as well an repulsion force due to pressure of gravitons. For single gravitons, these forces are approximately balanced, but each of them is much bigger than a force of newtonian attraction. If single gravitons are pairing, a body attraction force due to pressure of such graviton pairs is twice exceeding a corresponding repulsion force under the condition that graviton pairs are destructed by collisions with a body. If the considered quantum mechanism of classical gravity is realized in the nature, than an existence of black holes contradicts to Einstein’s equivalence principle. In such the model, Newton’s constant is proportional to H 2 /T 4, where H is the Hubble constant, T is an equivalent temperature of the graviton background. The estimate of the Hubble constant is obtained H = 3.026·10 −18 s −1 (or 94.576 km·s −1 ·Mpc −1). PACS 04.60.m, 98.70.Vc 1 1
Science of Chaos or Chaos in Science?
, 1996
"... I try to clarify several confusions in the popular literature concerning chaos, determinism, the arrow of time, entropy and the role of probability in physics. Classical ideas going back to Laplace and Boltzmann are explained and defended while some recent views on irreversibility, due to Prigogine, ..."
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Cited by 15 (0 self)
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I try to clarify several confusions in the popular literature concerning chaos, determinism, the arrow of time, entropy and the role of probability in physics. Classical ideas going back to Laplace and Boltzmann are explained and defended while some recent views on irreversibility, due to Prigogine, are criticized.
Quantum Theory Without Observers
 I and II, Physics Today
, 1997
"... Introduction Despite its extraordinary predictive successes, quantum mechanics has, since its inception some seventy years ago, been plagued by conceptual difficulties. The basic problem, plainly put, is this: It is not at all clear what quantum mechanics is about. What, in fact, does quantum mecha ..."
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Cited by 13 (1 self)
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Introduction Despite its extraordinary predictive successes, quantum mechanics has, since its inception some seventy years ago, been plagued by conceptual difficulties. The basic problem, plainly put, is this: It is not at all clear what quantum mechanics is about. What, in fact, does quantum mechanics describe? It might seem, since it is widely agreed that the state of any quantum mechanical system is completely specified by its wave function, that quantum mechanics is fundamentally about the behavior of wave functions. Quite naturally, no physicist wanted this to be true more than did Erwin Schrodinger, the father of the wave function. Nonetheless, Schrodinger ultimately found this impossible to believe. His difficulty was not so much with the novelty of the wave function [2, page 156 of [3]]: "That it is an abstract, unintuitive mathematical construct is a scruple that almost always surfaces against new aids to thought and that carries no great message." Rather, it was that
C∞Smooth Singularities
 Chimeras of the Spacetime Manifold, in preparation
, 2001
"... Abstract. We present herewith certain thoughts on the important subject of nowadays physics, pertaining to the socalled “singularities”, that emanated from looking at the theme, in terms of ADG (: abstract differential geometry). Thus, according to the latter perspective, we can involve “singularit ..."
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Cited by 6 (3 self)
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Abstract. We present herewith certain thoughts on the important subject of nowadays physics, pertaining to the socalled “singularities”, that emanated from looking at the theme, in terms of ADG (: abstract differential geometry). Thus, according to the latter perspective, we can involve “singularities ” in our arguments, while still employing fundamental differentialgeometric notions, as connections, curvature, metric and the like, retaining also the form of standard important relations of the classical theory (e.g. Einstein and/or YangMills equations, in vacuum), even within that generalized context of ADG. To wind up, we can extend (in point of fact, calculate) over singularities classical differentialgeometric relations/equations, without altering their forms and/or changing the standard arguments; the change concerns thus only the way, we employ the usual differential geometry of smooth manifolds, so that the base “space ” acquires now a quite secondary rôle, not contributing, at all (!), to the differentialgeometric technique, we apply, the latter being thus, by definition, directly referred to the objects involved, that “live on the space”, not being, of course, i p s o f a c t o “singular”!
Can Conditioning on the “Past Hypothesis ” Militate Against the
"... is a uniform probability distribution defined, on the standard measure, over the space of microscopic states that are compatible with both the current macrocondition of the world, and with what he calls the “past hypothesis”, we can explain the time asymmetry of all of the thermodynamic behavior in ..."
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Cited by 6 (1 self)
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is a uniform probability distribution defined, on the standard measure, over the space of microscopic states that are compatible with both the current macrocondition of the world, and with what he calls the “past hypothesis”, we can explain the time asymmetry of all of the thermodynamic behavior in the world. The principal purpose of this paper is to dispute this claim. I argue that Albert’s proposal fails in his stated goal—to show how to use the timereversible dynamics of Newtonian physics to “underwrite the actual content of our thermodynamic experience ” (Albert 2000, 159). Albert’s proposal can satisfactorily explain why the overall entropy of the universe as a whole is increasing, but it does not and cannot explain the increasing entropy of relatively small, relatively shortlived systems in energetic isolation without making use of a principle that leads to reversibility objections. 1. Introduction. One