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Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets
 JOURNAL OF FINANCE
, 2001
"... Testing the hypothesis that international equity market correlation increases in volatile times is a difficult exercise and misleading results have often been reported in the past because of a spurious relationship between correlation and volatility. This paper focuses on extreme correlation, that i ..."
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Cited by 407 (2 self)
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Testing the hypothesis that international equity market correlation increases in volatile times is a difficult exercise and misleading results have often been reported in the past because of a spurious relationship between correlation and volatility. This paper focuses on extreme correlation, that is to say the correlation between returns in either the negative or positive tail of the multivariate distribution. Using “extreme value theory ” to model the multivariate distribution tails, we derive the distribution of extreme correlation for a wide class of return distributions. Using monthly data on the five largest stock markets from 1958 to 1996, we reject the null hypothesis of multivariate normality for the negative tail, but not for the positive tail. We also find that correlation is not related to market volatility per se but to the market trend. Correlation increases in bear markets, but not in bull markets.
Conditional valueatrisk for general loss distributions
 Journal of Banking and Finance
, 2002
"... Abstract. Fundamental properties of conditional valueatrisk, as a measure of risk with significant advantages over valueatrisk, are derived for loss distributions in finance that can involve discreetness. Such distributions are of particular importance in applications because of the prevalence o ..."
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Cited by 356 (28 self)
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Abstract. Fundamental properties of conditional valueatrisk, as a measure of risk with significant advantages over valueatrisk, are derived for loss distributions in finance that can involve discreetness. Such distributions are of particular importance in applications because of the prevalence of models based on scenarios and finite sampling. Conditional valueatrisk is able to quantify dangers beyond valueatrisk, and moreover it is coherent. It provides optimization shortcuts which, through linear programming techniques, make practical many largescale calculations that could otherwise be out of reach. The numerical efficiency and stability of such calculations, shown in several case studies, are illustrated further with an example of index tracking. Key Words: Valueatrisk, conditional valueatrisk, mean shortfall, coherent risk measures, risk sampling, scenarios, hedging, index tracking, portfolio optimization, risk management
Correlation And Dependence In Risk Management: Properties And Pitfalls
 RISK MANAGEMENT: VALUE AT RISK AND BEYOND
, 1999
"... Modern risk management calls for an understanding of stochastic dependence going beyond simple linear correlation. This paper deals with the static (nontimedependent) case and emphasizes the copula representation of dependence for a random vector. Linear correlation is a natural dependence measure ..."
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Cited by 319 (37 self)
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Modern risk management calls for an understanding of stochastic dependence going beyond simple linear correlation. This paper deals with the static (nontimedependent) case and emphasizes the copula representation of dependence for a random vector. Linear correlation is a natural dependence measure for multivariate normally and, more generally, elliptically distributed risks but other dependence concepts like comonotonicity and rank correlation should also be understood by the risk management practitioner. Using counterexamples the falsity of some commonly held views on correlation is demonstrated; in general, these fallacies arise from the naive assumption that dependence properties of the elliptical world also hold in the nonelliptical world. In particular, the problem of finding multivariate models which are consistent with prespecified marginal distributions and correlations is addressed. Pitfalls are highlighted and simulation algorithms avoiding these problems are constructed. ...
The t copula and related copulas
 INTERNATIONAL STATISTICAL REVIEW
, 2005
"... The t copula and its properties are described with a focus on issues related to the dependence of extreme values. The Gaussian mixture representation of a multivariate t distribution is used as a starting point to construct two new copulas, the skewed t copula and the grouped t copula, which allow m ..."
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Cited by 112 (0 self)
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The t copula and its properties are described with a focus on issues related to the dependence of extreme values. The Gaussian mixture representation of a multivariate t distribution is used as a starting point to construct two new copulas, the skewed t copula and the grouped t copula, which allow more heterogeneity in the modelling of dependent observations. Extreme value considerations are used to derive two further new copulas: the t extreme value copula is the limiting copula of componentwise maxima of t distributed random vectors; the t lower tail copula is the limiting copula of bivariate observations from a t distribution that are conditioned to lie below some joint threshold that is progressively lowered. Both these copulas may be approximated for practical purposes by simpler, betterknown copulas, these being the Gumbel and Clayton copulas respectively.
Limit theory for the sample autocorrelations and extremes of a GARCH(1,1) process
, 1998
"... The asymptotic theory for the sample autocorrelations and extremes of a GARCH(1; 1) process is provided. Special attention is given to the case when the sum of the ARCH and GARCH parameters is close to one, i.e. when one is close to an infinite variance marginal distribution. This situation has been ..."
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Cited by 91 (20 self)
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The asymptotic theory for the sample autocorrelations and extremes of a GARCH(1; 1) process is provided. Special attention is given to the case when the sum of the ARCH and GARCH parameters is close to one, i.e. when one is close to an infinite variance marginal distribution. This situation has been observed for various financial logreturn series and led to the introduction of the IGARCH model. In such a situation the sample autocorrelations are unreliable estimators of their deterministic counterparts for the time series and its absolute values, and the sample autocorrelations of the squared time series have nondegenerate limit distributions. We discuss the consequences for a foreign exchange rate series. AMS 1991 Subject Classification: Primary: 62P20 Secondary: 90A20 60G55 60J10 62F10 62F12 62G30 62M10 Key Words and Phrases. GARCH, sample autocorrelations, stochastic recurrence equation, Pareto tail, extremes, extremal index, point processes, foreign exchange rates 1 Introduc...
Dependence Structures for Multivariate HighFrequency Data in Finance. Quantitative Finance 3
, 2003
"... www.math.ethz.ch/finance Stylised facts for univariate high–frequency data in finance are well–known. They include scaling behaviour, volatility clustering, heavy tails, and seasonalities. The multivariate problem, however, has scarcely been addressed up to now. In this paper, bivariate series of hi ..."
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Cited by 89 (4 self)
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www.math.ethz.ch/finance Stylised facts for univariate high–frequency data in finance are well–known. They include scaling behaviour, volatility clustering, heavy tails, and seasonalities. The multivariate problem, however, has scarcely been addressed up to now. In this paper, bivariate series of high–frequency FX spot data for major FX markets are investigated. First, as an indispensable prerequisite for further analysis, the problem of simultaneous deseasonalisation of high–frequency data is addressed. In the bulk of the paper we analyse in detail the dependence structure as a function of the time scale. Particular emphasis is put on the tail behaviour, which is investigated by means of copulas and spectral measures. 1
Multivariate realised kernels: consistent positive semidefinite estimators of the covariation of equity prices with noise and nonsynchronous trading
, 2008
"... ..."
Ruin probabilities and overshoots for general Lévy insurance risk processes
 ANN. APPL. PROBAB
, 2004
"... We formulate the insurance risk process in a general Lévy process setting, and give general theorems for the ruin probability and the asymptotic distribution of the overshoot of the process above a high level, when the process drifts to − ∞ a.s. and the positive tail of the Lévy measure, or of the l ..."
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Cited by 82 (26 self)
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We formulate the insurance risk process in a general Lévy process setting, and give general theorems for the ruin probability and the asymptotic distribution of the overshoot of the process above a high level, when the process drifts to − ∞ a.s. and the positive tail of the Lévy measure, or of the ladder height measure, is subexponential or, more generally, convolution equivalent. Results of Asmussen and Klüppelberg [Stochastic Process. Appl. 64 (1996) 103–125] and Bertoin and Doney [Adv. in Appl. Probab. 28 (1996) 207–226] for ruin probabilities and the overshoot in random walk and compound Poisson models are shown to have analogues in the general setup. The identities we derive open the way to further investigation of general renewaltype properties of Lévy processes.
Extreme value theory as a risk management tool
 North American Actuarial Journal
, 1999
"... The financial industry, including banking and insurance, is undergoing major changes. The (re)insurance industry is increasingly exposed to catastrophic losses for which the requested cover is only just available. An increasing complexity of financial instruments calls for sophisticated risk managem ..."
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Cited by 81 (1 self)
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The financial industry, including banking and insurance, is undergoing major changes. The (re)insurance industry is increasingly exposed to catastrophic losses for which the requested cover is only just available. An increasing complexity of financial instruments calls for sophisticated risk management tools. The securitization of risk and alternative risk transfer highlight the convergence of finance and insurance at the product level. Extreme value theory plays an important methodological role within risk management for insurance, reinsurance, and finance. 1.