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Bayes Factors
, 1995
"... In a 1935 paper, and in his book Theory of Probability, Jeffreys developed a methodology for quantifying the evidence in favor of a scientific theory. The centerpiece was a number, now called the Bayes factor, which is the posterior odds of the null hypothesis when the prior probability on the null ..."
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Cited by 1176 (71 self)
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In a 1935 paper, and in his book Theory of Probability, Jeffreys developed a methodology for quantifying the evidence in favor of a scientific theory. The centerpiece was a number, now called the Bayes factor, which is the posterior odds of the null hypothesis when the prior probability on the null is onehalf. Although there has been much discussion of Bayesian hypothesis testing in the context of criticism of P values, less attention has been given to the Bayes factor as a practical tool of applied statistics. In this paper we review and discuss the uses of Bayes factors in the context of five scientific applications in genetics, sports, ecology, sociology and psychology.
Empirical exchange rate models of the Seventies: do they fit out of sample?
 JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
, 1983
"... This study compares the outofsample forecasting accuracy of various structural and time series exchange rate models. We find that a random walk model performs as well as any estimated model at one to twelve month horizons for the dollar/pound, dollar/mark, dollar/yen and tradeweighted dollar exch ..."
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Cited by 598 (7 self)
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This study compares the outofsample forecasting accuracy of various structural and time series exchange rate models. We find that a random walk model performs as well as any estimated model at one to twelve month horizons for the dollar/pound, dollar/mark, dollar/yen and tradeweighted dollar exchange rates. The candidate structural models include the flexibleprice (FrenkelBilson) and stickyprice (DornbuschFrankel) monetary models, and a stickyprice model which incorporates the current account (HooperMorton). The structural models perform poorly despite the fact that we base their forecasts on actual realized values of future explanatory variables.
Bayesian Interpolation
 Neural Computation
, 1991
"... Although Bayesian analysis has been in use since Laplace, the Bayesian method of modelcomparison has only recently been developed in depth. In this paper, the Bayesian approach to regularisation and modelcomparison is demonstrated by studying the inference problem of interpolating noisy data. T ..."
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Cited by 582 (19 self)
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Although Bayesian analysis has been in use since Laplace, the Bayesian method of modelcomparison has only recently been developed in depth. In this paper, the Bayesian approach to regularisation and modelcomparison is demonstrated by studying the inference problem of interpolating noisy data. The concepts and methods described are quite general and can be applied to many other problems. Regularising constants are set by examining their posterior probability distribution. Alternative regularisers (priors) and alternative basis sets are objectively compared by evaluating the evidence for them. `Occam's razor' is automatically embodied by this framework. The way in which Bayes infers the values of regularising constants and noise levels has an elegant interpretation in terms of the effective number of parameters determined by the data set. This framework is due to Gull and Skilling. 1 Data modelling and Occam's razor In science, a central task is to develop and compare models to a...
Efficient tests for an autoregression unit root
 Econometrica
, 1996
"... Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at ..."
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Cited by 398 (4 self)
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Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of JSTOR's Terms and Conditions of Use, available at
Blobworld: Image segmentation using ExpectationMaximization and its application to image querying
 IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence
, 1999
"... Retrieving images from large and varied collections using image content as a key is a challenging and important problem. We present a new image representation which provides a transformation from the raw pixel data to a small set of image regions which are coherent in color and texture. This "B ..."
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Cited by 360 (10 self)
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Retrieving images from large and varied collections using image content as a key is a challenging and important problem. We present a new image representation which provides a transformation from the raw pixel data to a small set of image regions which are coherent in color and texture. This "Blobworld" representation is created by clustering pixels in a joint colortextureposition feature space. The segmentation algorithm is fully automatic and has been run on a collection of 10,000 natural images. We describe a system that uses the Blobworld representation to retrieve images from this collection. An important aspect of the system is that the user is allowed to view the internal representation of the submitted image and the query results. Similar systems do not offer the user this view into the workings of the system; consequently, query results from these systems can be inexplicable, despite the availability of knobs for adjusting the similarity metrics. By finding image regions whi...
ModelBased Clustering, Discriminant Analysis, and Density Estimation
 JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
, 2000
"... Cluster analysis is the automated search for groups of related observations in a data set. Most clustering done in practice is based largely on heuristic but intuitively reasonable procedures and most clustering methods available in commercial software are also of this type. However, there is little ..."
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Cited by 319 (26 self)
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Cluster analysis is the automated search for groups of related observations in a data set. Most clustering done in practice is based largely on heuristic but intuitively reasonable procedures and most clustering methods available in commercial software are also of this type. However, there is little systematic guidance associated with these methods for solving important practical questions that arise in cluster analysis, such as \How many clusters are there?", "Which clustering method should be used?" and \How should outliers be handled?". We outline a general methodology for modelbased clustering that provides a principled statistical approach to these issues. We also show that this can be useful for other problems in multivariate analysis, such as discriminant analysis and multivariate density estimation. We give examples from medical diagnosis, mineeld detection, cluster recovery from noisy data, and spatial density estimation. Finally, we mention limitations of the methodology, a...
How many clusters? Which clustering method? Answers via modelbased cluster analysis
 THE COMPUTER JOURNAL
, 1998
"... ..."
The minimum description length principle in coding and modeling
 IEEE TRANS. INFORM. THEORY
, 1998
"... We review the principles of Minimum Description Length and Stochastic Complexity as used in data compression and statistical modeling. Stochastic complexity is formulated as the solution to optimum universal coding problems extending Shannon’s basic source coding theorem. The normalized maximized ..."
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Cited by 315 (12 self)
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We review the principles of Minimum Description Length and Stochastic Complexity as used in data compression and statistical modeling. Stochastic complexity is formulated as the solution to optimum universal coding problems extending Shannon’s basic source coding theorem. The normalized maximized likelihood, mixture, and predictive codings are each shown to achieve the stochastic complexity to within asymptotically vanishing terms. We assess the performance of the minimum description length criterion both from the vantage point of quality of data compression and accuracy of statistical inference. Context tree modeling, density estimation, and model selection in Gaussian linear regression serve as examples.
Unsupervised learning of finite mixture models
 IEEE Transactions on pattern analysis and machine intelligence
, 2002
"... AbstractÐThis paper proposes an unsupervised algorithm for learning a finite mixture model from multivariate data. The adjective ªunsupervisedº is justified by two properties of the algorithm: 1) it is capable of selecting the number of components and 2) unlike the standard expectationmaximization ..."
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Cited by 304 (21 self)
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AbstractÐThis paper proposes an unsupervised algorithm for learning a finite mixture model from multivariate data. The adjective ªunsupervisedº is justified by two properties of the algorithm: 1) it is capable of selecting the number of components and 2) unlike the standard expectationmaximization (EM) algorithm, it does not require careful initialization. The proposed method also avoids another drawback of EM for mixture fitting: the possibility of convergence toward a singular estimate at the boundary of the parameter space. The novelty of our approach is that we do not use a model selection criterion to choose one among a set of preestimated candidate models; instead, we seamlessly integrate estimation and model selection in a single algorithm. Our technique can be applied to any type of parametric mixture model for which it is possible to write an EM algorithm; in this paper, we illustrate it with experiments involving Gaussian mixtures. These experiments testify for the good performance of our approach. Index TermsÐFinite mixtures, unsupervised learning, model selection, minimum message length criterion, Bayesian methods, expectationmaximization algorithm, clustering. æ 1