We define Recursive Markov Chains (RMCs), a class of finitely presented denumerable Markov chains, and we study algorithms for their analysis. Informally, an RMC consists of a collection of finite-state Markov chains with the ability to invoke each other in a potentially recursive manner. RMCs offer a natural abstract model for probabilistic programs with procedures. They generalize, in a precise sense, a number of well studied stochastic models, including Stochastic Context-Free Grammars (SCFG) and Multi-Type Branching Processes (MT-BP). We focus on algorithms for reachability and termination analysis for RMCs: what is the probability that an RMC started from a given state reaches another target state, or that it terminates? These probabilities are in general irrational, and they arise as (least) fixed point solutions to certain (monotone) systems of nonlinear equations associated with RMCs. We address both the qualitative problem of determining whether the probabilities are 0, 1 or in-between, and

Abstract. Recursive Markov Chains (RMCs) ([EY04]) are a natural abstract model of procedural probabilistic programs and related systems involving recursion and probability. They succinctly define a class of denumerable Markov chains that generalize multi-type branching (stochastic) processes. In this paper, we study the problem of model checking an RMC against a given ω-regular specification. Namely, given an RMC A and a Büchi automaton B, we wish to know the probability that an execution of A is accepted by B. We establish a number of strong upper bounds, as well as lower bounds, both for qualitative problems (is the probability = 1, or = 0?), and for quantitative problems (is the probability ≥ p?, or, approximate the probability to within a desired precision). Among these, we show that qualitative model checking for general RMCs can be decided in PSPACE in |A | and EXPTIME in |B|, and when A is either a single-exit RMC or when the total number of entries and exits in A is bounded, it can be decided in polynomial time in |A|. We then show that quantitative model checking can also be done in PSPACE in |A|, and in EXPSPACE in |B|. When B is deterministic, all our complexities in |B | come down by one exponential. For lower bounds, we show that the qualitative model checking problem, even for a fixed RMC, is already EXPTIME-complete. On the other hand, even for simple reachability analysis, we showed in [EY04] that our PSPACE upper bounds in A can not be improved upon without a breakthrough on a well-known open problem in the complexity of numerical computation. 1

Abstract. We introduce Recursive Markov Decision Processes (RMDPs) and Recursive Simple Stochastic Games (RSSGs), and study the decidability and complexity of algorithms for their analysis and verification. These models extend Recursive Markov Chains (RMCs), introduced in [EY05a,EY05b] as a natural model for verification of probabilistic procedural programs and related systems involving both recursion and probabilistic behavior. RMCs define a class of denumerable Markov chains with a rich theory generalizing that of stochastic context-free grammars and multi-type branching processes, and they are also intimately related to probabilistic pushdown systems. RMDPs & RSSGs extend RMCs with one controller or two adversarial players, respectively. Such extensions are useful for modeling nondeterministic and concurrent behavior, as well as modeling a system’s interactions with an environment. We provide a number of upper and lower bounds for deciding, given an RMDP (or RSSG) A and probability p, whether player 1 has a strategy to force termination at a desired exit with probability at least p. We also address “qualitative ” termination questions, where p = 1, and model checking questions. 1

Abstract. We consider qualitative and quantitative model-checking problems for probabilistic pushdown automata (pPDA) and various temporal logics. We prove that the qualitative and quantitative model-checking problem for ω-regular properties and pPDA is in 2-EXPSPACE and 3-EXPTIME, respectively. We also prove that model-checking the qualitative fragment of the logic PECTL ∗ for pPDA is in 2-EXPSPACE, and model-checking the qualitative fragment of PCTL for pPDA is in EXPSPACE. Furthermore, model-checking the qualitative fragment of PCTL is shown to be EXPTIME-hard even for stateless pPDA. Finally, we show that PCTL model-checking is undecidable for pPDA, and PCTL + model-checking is undecidable even for stateless pPDA. 1

We reexamine what it means to compute Nash equilibria and, more generally, what it means to compute a fixed point of a given Brouwer function, and we investigate the complexity of the associated problems. Specifically, we study the complexity of the following problem: given a finite game, Γ, with 3 or more players, and given ɛ> 0, compute an approximation within ɛ of some (actual) Nash equilibrium. We show that approximation of an actual Nash Equilibrium, even to within any non-trivial constant additive factor ɛ < 1/2 in just one desired coordinate, is at least as hard as the long standing square-root sum problem, as well as a more general arithmetic circuit decision problem that characterizes P-time in a unit-cost model of computation with arbitrary precision rational arithmetic; thus placing the approximation problem in P, or even NP, would resolve major open problems in the complexity of numerical computation. We show similar results for market equilibria: it is hard to estimate with any nontrivial accuracy the equilibrium prices in an exchange economy with a unique equilibrium, where the economy is given by explicit algebraic formulas for the excess demand functions. We define a class, FIXP, which captures search problems that can be cast as fixed point

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Abstract. We study Recursive Concurrent Stochastic Games (RCSGs), extending our recent analysis of recursive simple stochastic games [16, 17] to a concurrent setting where the two players choose moves simultaneously and independently at each state. For multi-exit games, our earlier work already showed undecidability for basic questions like termination, thus we focus on the important case of single-exit RCSGs (1-RCSGs). We first characterize the value of a 1-RCSG termination game as the least fixed point solution of a system of nonlinear minimax functional equations, and use it to show PSPACE decidability for the quantitative termination problem. We then give a strategy improvement technique, which we use to show that player 1 (maximizer) has ǫ-optimal randomized Stackless & Memoryless (r-SM) strategies for all ǫ> 0, while player 2 (minimizer) has optimal r-SM strategies. Thus, such games are r-SM-determined. These results mirror and generalize in a strong sense the randomized memoryless determinacy results for finite stochastic games, and extend the classic Hoffman-Karp [22] strategy improvement approach from the finite to an infinite state setting. The proofs in our infinite-state setting are very different however, relying on subtle analytic properties of certain power series that arise from studying 1-RCSGs. We show that our upper bounds, even for qualitative (probability 1) termination, can not be improved, even to NP, without a major breakthrough, by giving two reductions: first a P-time reduction from the long-standing square-root sum problem to the quantitative termination decision problem for finite concurrent stochastic games, and then a P-time reduction from the latter problem to the qualitative termination problem for 1-RCSGs. 1.

Monotone systems of polynomial equations (MSPEs) are systems of fixedpoint equations X1 = f1(X1,..., Xn),..., Xn = fn(X1,..., Xn) where each fi is a polynomial with positive real coefficients. The question of computing the least non-negative solution of a given MSPE X = f(X) arises naturally in the analysis of stochastic models such as stochastic context-free grammars, probabilistic pushdown automata, and backbutton processes. Etessami and Yannakakis have recently adapted Newton’s iterative method to MSPEs. In a previous paper we have proved the existence of a threshold kf for strongly connected MSPEs, such that after kf iterations of Newton’s method each new iteration computes at least 1 new bit of the solution. However, the proof was purely existential. In this paper we give an upper bound for kf as a function of the minimal component of the least fixed-point µf of f(X). Using this result we show that kf is at most single exponential resp. linear for strongly connected MSPEs derived from probabilistic pushdown automata resp. from back-button processes. Further, we prove the existence of a threshold for arbitrary MSPEs after which each new iteration computes at least 1/w2 h new bits of the solution, where w and h are the width and height of the DAG of strongly connected components.

Monolithic nite-state probabilistic programs have been abstractly modeled by nite Markov chains, and the algorithmic veri - cation problems for them have been investigated very extensively. In this paper we survey recent work conducted by the authors together with colleagues on the algorithmic veri cation of probabilistic procedural programs ([BKS,EKM04,EY04]). Probabilistic procedural programs can more naturally be modeled by recursive Markov chains ([EY04]), or equivalently, probabilistic pushdown automata ([EKM04]). A very rich theory emerges for these models. While our recent work solves a number of veri cation problems for these models, many intriguing questions remain open.