Abstract. This paper presents a Bayesian method for constructing probabilistic networks from databases. In particular, we focus on constructing Bayesian belief networks. Potential applications include computer-assisted hypothesis testing, automated scientific discovery, and automated construction of probabilistic expert systems. We extend the basic method to handle missing data and hidden (latent) variables. We show how to perform probabilistic inference by averaging over the inferences of multiple belief networks. Results are presented of a preliminary evaluation of an algorithm for constructing a belief network from a database of cases. Finally, we relate the methods in this paper to previous work, and we discuss open problems.

A factor graph is a bipartite graph that expresses how a "global" function of many variables factors into a product of "local" functions. Factor graphs subsume many other graphical models including Bayesian networks, Markov random fields, and Tanner graphs. Following one simple computational rule, the sum-product algorithm operates in factor graphs to compute---either exactly or approximately---various marginal functions by distributed message-passing in the graph. A wide variety of algorithms developed in artificial intelligence, signal processing, and digital communications can be derived as specific instances of the sum-product algorithm, including the forward/backward algorithm, the Viterbi algorithm, the iterative "turbo" decoding algorithm, Pearl's belief propagation algorithm for Bayesian networks, the Kalman filter, and certain fast Fourier transform algorithms.

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We show that it is possible to extend hidden Markov models to have a countably infinite number of hidden states. By using the theory of Dirichlet processes we can implicitly integrate out the infinitely many transition parameters, leaving only three hyperparameters which can be learned from data. These three hyperparameters define a hierarchical Dirichlet process capable of capturing a rich set of transition dynamics. The three hyperparameters control the time scale of the dynamics, the sparsity of the underlying state-transition matrix, and the expected number of distinct hidden states in a finite sequence. In this framework it is also natural to allow the alphabet of emitted symbols to be infinite---consider, for example, symbols being possible words appearing in English text.

We study two families of error-correcting codes defined in terms of very sparse matrices. "MN" (MacKay--Neal) codes are recently invented, and "Gallager codes" were first investigated in 1962, but appear to have been largely forgotten, in spite of their excellent properties. The decoding of both codes can be tackled with a practical sum-product algorithm. We prove that these codes are "very good," in that sequences of codes exist which, when optimally decoded, achieve information rates up to the Shannon limit. This result holds not only for the binary-symmetric channel but also for any channel with symmetric stationary ergodic noise. We give experimental results for binary-symmetric channels and Gaussian channels demonstrating that practical performance substantially better than that of standard convolutional and concatenated codes can be achieved; indeed, the performance of Gallager codes is almost as close to the Shannon limit as that of turbo codes. Index Terms--- Error-correctio...

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This paper presents a simple framework for Horn-clause abduction, with probabilities associated with hypotheses. The framework incorporates assumptions about the rule base and independence assumptions amongst hypotheses. It is shown how any probabilistic knowledge representable in a discrete Bayesian belief network can be represented in this framework. The main contribution is in finding a relationship between logical and probabilistic notions of evidential reasoning. This provides a useful representation language in its own right, providing a compromise between heuristic and epistemic adequacy. It also shows how Bayesian networks can be extended beyond a propositional language. This paper also shows how a language with only (unconditionally) independent hypotheses can represent any probabilistic knowledge, and argues that it is better to invent new hypotheses to explain dependence rather than having to worry about dependence in the language. Scholar, Canadian Institute for Advanced...

Abstract—In this paper, we will describe the close connection between the now celebrated iterative turbo decoding algorithm of Berrou et al. and an algorithm that has been well known in the artificial intelligence community for a decade, but which is relatively unknown to information theorists: Pearl’s belief propagation algorithm. We shall see that if Pearl’s algorithm is applied to the “belief network ” of a parallel concatenation of two or more codes, the turbo decoding algorithm immediately results. Unfortunately, however, this belief diagram has loops, and Pearl only proved that his algorithm works when there are no loops, so an explanation of the excellent experimental performance of turbo decoding is still lacking. However, we shall also show that Pearl’s algorithm can be used to routinely derive previously known iterative, but suboptimal, decoding algorithms for a number of other error-control systems, including Gallager’s

Bayesiannetworks provide a languagefor qualitatively representing the conditional independence properties of a distribution. This allows a natural and compact representation of the distribution, eases knowledge acquisition, and supports effective inference algorithms.

Bucket elimination is an algorithmic framework that generalizes dynamic programming to accommodate many problem-solving and reasoning tasks. Algorithms such as directional-resolution for propositional satisfiability, adaptive-consistency for constraint satisfaction, Fourier and Gaussian elimination for solving linear equalities and inequalities, and dynamic programming for combinatorial optimization, can all be accommodated within the bucket elimination framework. Many probabilistic inference tasks can likewise be expressed as bucket-elimination algorithms. These include: belief updating, finding the most probable explanation, and expected utility maximization. These algorithms share the same performance guarantees; all are time and space exponential in the inducedwidth of the problem's interaction graph. While elimination strategies have extensive demands on memory, a contrasting class of algorithms called "conditioning search" require only linear space. Algorithms in this class split a problem into subproblems by instantiating a subset of variables, called a conditioning set, or a cutset. Typical examples of conditioning search algorithms are: backtracking (in constraint satisfaction), and branch and bound (for combinatorial optimization). The paper presents the bucket-elimination framework as a unifying theme across probabilistic and deterministic reasoning tasks and show how conditioning search can be augmented to systematically trade space for time.