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224
Dynamic Bayesian Networks: Representation, Inference and Learning
, 2002
"... Modelling sequential data is important in many areas of science and engineering. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Kalman filter models (KFMs) are popular for this because they are simple and flexible. For example, HMMs have been used for speech recognition and biosequence analysis, and KFMs have bee ..."
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Cited by 759 (3 self)
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Modelling sequential data is important in many areas of science and engineering. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Kalman filter models (KFMs) are popular for this because they are simple and flexible. For example, HMMs have been used for speech recognition and biosequence analysis, and KFMs have been used for problems ranging from tracking planes and missiles to predicting the economy. However, HMMs
and KFMs are limited in their “expressive power”. Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) generalize HMMs by allowing the state space to be represented in factored form, instead of as a single discrete random variable. DBNs generalize KFMs by allowing arbitrary probability distributions, not just (unimodal) linearGaussian. In this thesis, I will discuss how to represent many different kinds of models as DBNs, how to perform exact and approximate inference in DBNs, and how to learn DBN models from sequential data.
In particular, the main novel technical contributions of this thesis are as follows: a way of representing
Hierarchical HMMs as DBNs, which enables inference to be done in O(T) time instead of O(T 3), where T is the length of the sequence; an exact smoothing algorithm that takes O(log T) space instead of O(T); a simple way of using the junction tree algorithm for online inference in DBNs; new complexity bounds on exact online inference in DBNs; a new deterministic approximate inference algorithm called factored frontier; an analysis of the relationship between the BK algorithm and loopy belief propagation; a way of
applying RaoBlackwellised particle filtering to DBNs in general, and the SLAM (simultaneous localization
and mapping) problem in particular; a way of extending the structural EM algorithm to DBNs; and a variety of different applications of DBNs. However, perhaps the main value of the thesis is its catholic presentation of the field of sequential data modelling.
Model selection and estimation in the Gaussian graphical model
 BIOMETRIKA (2007), PP. 1–17
, 2007
"... ..."
The Bayes Net Toolbox for MATLAB
 Computing Science and Statistics
, 2001
"... The Bayes Net Toolbox (BNT) is an opensource Matlab package for directed graphical models. BNT supports many kinds of nodes (probability distributions), exact and approximate inference, parameter and structure learning, and static and dynamic models. BNT is widely used in teaching and research: the ..."
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Cited by 243 (1 self)
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The Bayes Net Toolbox (BNT) is an opensource Matlab package for directed graphical models. BNT supports many kinds of nodes (probability distributions), exact and approximate inference, parameter and structure learning, and static and dynamic models. BNT is widely used in teaching and research: the web page has received over 28,000 hits since May 2000. In this paper, we discuss a broad spectrum of issues related to graphical models (directed and undirected), and describe, at a highlevel, how BNT was designed to cope with them all. We also compare BNT to other software packages for graphical models, and to the nascent OpenBayes effort.
An Empirical Bayes Approach to Inferring LargeScale Gene Association Networks
 BIOINFORMATICS
, 2004
"... Motivation: Genetic networks are often described statistically by graphical models (e.g. Bayesian networks). However, inferring the network structure offers a serious challenge in microarray analysis where the sample size is small compared to the number of considered genes. This renders many standar ..."
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Cited by 234 (6 self)
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Motivation: Genetic networks are often described statistically by graphical models (e.g. Bayesian networks). However, inferring the network structure offers a serious challenge in microarray analysis where the sample size is small compared to the number of considered genes. This renders many standard algorithms for graphical models inapplicable, and inferring genetic networks an “illposed” inverse problem. Methods: We introduce a novel framework for smallsample inference of graphical models from gene expression data. Specifically, we focus on socalled graphical Gaussian models (GGMs) that are now frequently used to describe gene association networks and to detect conditionally dependent genes. Our new approach is based on (i) improved (regularized) smallsample point estimates of partial correlation, (ii) an exact test of edge inclusion with adaptive estimation of the degree of freedom, and (iii) a heuristic network search based on false discovery rate multiple testing. Steps (ii) and (iii) correspond to an empirical Bayes estimate of the network topology. Results: Using computer simulations we investigate the sensitivity (power) and specificity (true negative rate) of the proposed framework to estimate GGMs from microarray data. This shows that it is possible to recover the true network topology with high accuracy even for smallsample data sets. Subsequently, we analyze gene expression data from a breast cancer tumor study and illustrate our approach by inferring a corresponding largescale gene association network for 3,883 genes. Availability: The authors have implemented the approach in the R package “GeneTS ” that is freely available from
A Guide to the Literature on Learning Probabilistic Networks From Data
, 1996
"... This literature review discusses different methods under the general rubric of learning Bayesian networks from data, and includes some overlapping work on more general probabilistic networks. Connections are drawn between the statistical, neural network, and uncertainty communities, and between the ..."
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Cited by 203 (0 self)
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This literature review discusses different methods under the general rubric of learning Bayesian networks from data, and includes some overlapping work on more general probabilistic networks. Connections are drawn between the statistical, neural network, and uncertainty communities, and between the different methodological communities, such as Bayesian, description length, and classical statistics. Basic concepts for learning and Bayesian networks are introduced and methods are then reviewed. Methods are discussed for learning parameters of a probabilistic network, for learning the structure, and for learning hidden variables. The presentation avoids formal definitions and theorems, as these are plentiful in the literature, and instead illustrates key concepts with simplified examples. Keywords Bayesian networks, graphical models, hidden variables, learning, learning structure, probabilistic networks, knowledge discovery. I. Introduction Probabilistic networks or probabilistic gra...
Multiresolution markov models for signal and image processing
 Proceedings of the IEEE
, 2002
"... This paper reviews a significant component of the rich field of statistical multiresolution (MR) modeling and processing. These MR methods have found application and permeated the literature of a widely scattered set of disciplines, and one of our principal objectives is to present a single, coheren ..."
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Cited by 154 (19 self)
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This paper reviews a significant component of the rich field of statistical multiresolution (MR) modeling and processing. These MR methods have found application and permeated the literature of a widely scattered set of disciplines, and one of our principal objectives is to present a single, coherent picture of this framework. A second goal is to describe how this topic fits into the even larger field of MR methods and concepts–in particular making ties to topics such as wavelets and multigrid methods. A third is to provide several alternate viewpoints for this body of work, as the methods and concepts we describe intersect with a number of other fields. The principle focus of our presentation is the class of MR Markov processes defined on pyramidally organized trees. The attractiveness of these models stems from both the very efficient algorithms they admit and their expressive power and broad applicability. We show how a variety of methods and models relate to this framework including models for selfsimilar and 1/f processes. We also illustrate how these methods have been used in practice. We discuss the construction of MR models on trees and show how questions that arise in this context make contact with wavelets, state space modeling of time series, system and parameter identification, and hidden
An empirical study of speed and communication in globally distributed software development
 IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering
, 2003
"... Abstract—Global software development is rapidly becoming the norm for technology companies. Previous qualitative research suggests that distributed development may increase development cycle time for individual work items (modification requests). We use both data from the source code change manageme ..."
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Cited by 137 (10 self)
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Abstract—Global software development is rapidly becoming the norm for technology companies. Previous qualitative research suggests that distributed development may increase development cycle time for individual work items (modification requests). We use both data from the source code change management system and survey data to model the extent of delay in a distributed software development organization and explore several possible mechanisms for this delay. One key finding is that distributed work items appear to take about two and onehalf times as long to complete as similar items where all the work is colocated. The data strongly suggest a mechanism for the delay, i.e., that distributed work items involve more people than comparable samesite work items, and the number of people involved is strongly related to the calendar time to complete a work item. We replicate the analysis of change data in a different organization with a different product and different sites and confirm our main findings. We also report survey results showing differences between samesite and distributed social networks, testing several hypotheses about characteristics of distributed social networks that may be related to delay. We discuss implications of our findings for practices and collaboration technology that have the potential for dramatically speeding distributed software development. Index Terms—Global development, collaboration, delay, speed, awareness, informal communication. æ 1
Learning Bayesian Networks from Data: An InformationTheory Based Approach
, 2001
"... This paper provides algorithms that use an informationtheoretic analysis to learn Bayesian network structures from data. Based on our threephase learning framework, we develop efficient algorithms that can effectively learn Bayesian networks, requiring only polynomial numbers of conditional indepe ..."
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Cited by 126 (4 self)
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This paper provides algorithms that use an informationtheoretic analysis to learn Bayesian network structures from data. Based on our threephase learning framework, we develop efficient algorithms that can effectively learn Bayesian networks, requiring only polynomial numbers of conditional independence (CI) tests in typical cases. We provide precise conditions that specify when these algorithms are guaranteed to be correct as well as empirical evidence (from real world applications and simulation tests) that demonstrates that these systems work efficiently and reliably in practice.
ANCESTRAL GRAPH MARKOV MODELS
, 2002
"... This paper introduces a class of graphical independence models that is closed under marginalization and conditioning but that contains all DAG independence models. This class of graphs, called maximal ancestral graphs, has two attractive features: there is at most one edge between each pair of verti ..."
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Cited by 121 (23 self)
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This paper introduces a class of graphical independence models that is closed under marginalization and conditioning but that contains all DAG independence models. This class of graphs, called maximal ancestral graphs, has two attractive features: there is at most one edge between each pair of vertices; every missing edge corresponds to an independence relation. These features lead to a simple parameterization of the corresponding set of distributions in the Gaussian case.
Estimating highdimensional directed acyclic graphs with the PCalgorithm
 JOURNAL OF MACHINE LEARNING RESEARCH
, 2007
"... We consider the PCalgorithm (Spirtes et al., 2000) for estimating the skeleton and equivalence class of a very highdimensional directed acyclic graph (DAG) with corresponding Gaussian distribution. The PCalgorithm is computationally feasible and often very fast for sparse problems with many nodes ..."
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Cited by 114 (7 self)
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We consider the PCalgorithm (Spirtes et al., 2000) for estimating the skeleton and equivalence class of a very highdimensional directed acyclic graph (DAG) with corresponding Gaussian distribution. The PCalgorithm is computationally feasible and often very fast for sparse problems with many nodes (variables), and it has the attractive property to automatically achieve high computational efficiency as a function of sparseness of the true underlying DAG. We prove uniform consistency of the algorithm for very highdimensional, sparse DAGs where the number of nodes is allowed to quickly grow with sample size n, as fast as O(n a) for any 0 < a < ∞. The sparseness assumption is rather minimal requiring only that the neighborhoods in the DAG are of lower order than sample size n. We also demonstrate the PCalgorithm for simulated data.