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AN EQUILIBRIUM CHARACTERIZATION OF THE TERM STRUCTURE
, 1977
"... The paper derives a general form of the term structure of interest rates. The following assumptions are made: (A.l) The instantaneous (spot) interest rate follows a diffusion process; (A.2) the price of a discount bond depends only on the spot rate over its term; and (A.3) the market is efficient. U ..."
Abstract

Cited by 603 (0 self)
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The paper derives a general form of the term structure of interest rates. The following assumptions are made: (A.l) The instantaneous (spot) interest rate follows a diffusion process; (A.2) the price of a discount bond depends only on the spot rate over its term; and (A.3) the market is efficient. Under these assumptions, it is shown by means of an arbitrage argument that the expected rate of return on any bond in excess of the spot rate is proportional to its standard deviation. This property is then used to derive a partial differential equation for bond prices. The solution to that equation is given in the form of a stochastic integral representation. An interpretation of the bond pricing formula is provided. The model is illustrated on a specific case.
Continuous time threshold autoregressive models, Statistica Sinica
 J. Appl. Prob
, 1991
"... This thesis considers continuous time autoregressive processes defined by stochastic differential equations and develops some methods for modelling time series data by such processes. The first part of the thesis looks at continuous time linear autoregressive (CAR) processes defined by linear stocha ..."
Abstract

Cited by 4 (2 self)
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This thesis considers continuous time autoregressive processes defined by stochastic differential equations and develops some methods for modelling time series data by such processes. The first part of the thesis looks at continuous time linear autoregressive (CAR) processes defined by linear stochastic differential equations. These processes are wellunderstood and there is a large body of literature devoted to their study. I summarise some of the relevant material and develop some further results. In particular, I propose a new and very fast method of estimation using an approach analogous to the Yuleâ€“Walker estimates for discrete time autoregressive processes. The models so estimated may be used for preliminary analysis of the appropriate model structure and as a starting point for maximum likelihood estimation. A natural extension of CAR processes is the class of continuous time threshold autoregressive (CTAR) processes defined by piecewise linear stochastic differential