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217
Automatically characterizing large scale program behavior
, 2002
"... Understanding program behavior is at the foundation of computer architecture and program optimization. Many programs have wildly different behavior on even the very largest of scales (over the complete execution of the program). This realization has ramifications for many architectural and compile ..."
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Cited by 769 (41 self)
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Understanding program behavior is at the foundation of computer architecture and program optimization. Many programs have wildly different behavior on even the very largest of scales (over the complete execution of the program). This realization has ramifications for many architectural and compiler techniques, from thread scheduling, to feedback directed optimizations, to the way programs are simulated. However, in order to take advantage of timevarying behavior, we.must first develop the analytical tools necessary to automatically and efficiently analyze program behavior over large sections of execution. Our goal is to develop automatic techniques that are capable of finding and exploiting the Large Scale Behavior of programs (behavior seen over billions of instructions). The first step towards this goal is the development of a hardware independent metric that can concisely summarize the behavior of an arbitrary section of execution in a program. To this end we examine the use of Basic Block Vectors. We quantify the effectiveness of Basic Block Vectors in capturing program behavior across several different architectural metrics, explore the large scale behavior of several programs, and develop a set of algorithms based on clustering capable of analyzing this behavior. We then demonstrate an application of this technology to automatically determine where to simulate for a program to help guide computer architecture research. 1.
ModelBased Clustering, Discriminant Analysis, and Density Estimation
 JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION
, 2000
"... Cluster analysis is the automated search for groups of related observations in a data set. Most clustering done in practice is based largely on heuristic but intuitively reasonable procedures and most clustering methods available in commercial software are also of this type. However, there is little ..."
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Cited by 561 (29 self)
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Cluster analysis is the automated search for groups of related observations in a data set. Most clustering done in practice is based largely on heuristic but intuitively reasonable procedures and most clustering methods available in commercial software are also of this type. However, there is little systematic guidance associated with these methods for solving important practical questions that arise in cluster analysis, such as \How many clusters are there?", "Which clustering method should be used?" and \How should outliers be handled?". We outline a general methodology for modelbased clustering that provides a principled statistical approach to these issues. We also show that this can be useful for other problems in multivariate analysis, such as discriminant analysis and multivariate density estimation. We give examples from medical diagnosis, mineeld detection, cluster recovery from noisy data, and spatial density estimation. Finally, we mention limitations of the methodology, a...
Xmeans: Extending Kmeans with Efficient Estimation of the Number of Clusters
 In Proceedings of the 17th International Conf. on Machine Learning
, 2000
"... Despite its popularity for general clustering, Kmeans suffers three major shortcomings; it scales poorly computationally, the number of clusters K has to be supplied by the user, and the search is prone to local minima. We propose solutions for the first two problems, and a partial remedy for the t ..."
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Cited by 412 (5 self)
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Despite its popularity for general clustering, Kmeans suffers three major shortcomings; it scales poorly computationally, the number of clusters K has to be supplied by the user, and the search is prone to local minima. We propose solutions for the first two problems, and a partial remedy for the third. Building on prior work for algorithmic acceleration that is not based on approximation, we introduce a new algorithm that efficiently, searches the space of cluster locations and number of clusters to optimize the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) or the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) measure. The innovations include two new ways of exploiting cached sufficient statistics and a new very efficient test that in one Kmeans sweep selects the most promising subset of classes for refinement. This gives rise to a fast, statistically founded algorithm that outputs both the number of classes and their parameters. Experiments show this technique reveals the true number of classes in the underlying distribution, and that it is much faster than repeatedly using accelerated Kmeans for different values of K.
Model Selection and Model Averaging in Phylogenetics: Advantages of Akaike Information Criterion and Bayesian Approaches Over Likelihood Ratio Tests
, 2004
"... Model selection is a topic of special relevance in molecular phylogenetics that affects many, if not all, stages of phylogenetic inference. Here we discuss some fundamental concepts and techniques of model selection in the context of phylogenetics. We start by reviewing different aspects of the sel ..."
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Cited by 378 (8 self)
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Model selection is a topic of special relevance in molecular phylogenetics that affects many, if not all, stages of phylogenetic inference. Here we discuss some fundamental concepts and techniques of model selection in the context of phylogenetics. We start by reviewing different aspects of the selection of substitution models in phylogenetics from a theoretical, philosophical and practical point of view, and summarize this comparison in table format. We argue that the most commonly implemented model selection approach, the hierarchical likelihood ratio test, is not the optimal strategy for model selection in phylogenetics, and that approaches like the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian methods offer important advantages. In particular, the latter two methods are able to simultaneously compare multiple nested or nonnested models, assess model selection uncertainty, and allow for the estimation of phylogenies and model parameters using all available models (modelaveraged inference or multimodel inference). We also describe how the relative importance of the different parameters included in substitution models can be depicted. To illustrate some of these points, we have applied AICbased model averaging to 37 mitochondrial DNA sequences from the subgenus Ohomopterus (genus Carabus) ground beetles described by Sota and Vogler (2001).
Analyzing Developmental Trajectories: A Semiparametric, GroupBased Approach
 Psychological Methods
, 1999
"... A developmental trajectory describes the course of a behavior over age or time. A groupbased method for identifying distinctive groups of individual trajectories within the population and for profiling the characteristics of group members is demonstrated. Such clusters might include groups of & ..."
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Cited by 216 (11 self)
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A developmental trajectory describes the course of a behavior over age or time. A groupbased method for identifying distinctive groups of individual trajectories within the population and for profiling the characteristics of group members is demonstrated. Such clusters might include groups of &quot;increasers. &quot; &quot;decreasers,&quot; and &quot;no changers. &quot; Suitably defined probability distributions are used to handle 3 data types—count, binary, and psychometric scale data. Four capabilities are demonstrated: (a) the capability to identify rather than assume distinctive groups of trajectories, (b) the capability to estimate the proportion of the population following each such trajectory group, (c) the capability to relate group membership probability to individual characteristics and circumstances, and (d) the capability to use the group membership probabilities for various other purposes such as creating profiles of group members. Over the past decade, major advances have been made in methodology for analyzing individuallevel developmental trajectories. The two main branches of methodology are hierarchical modeling (Bryk &
Efficient approximations for the marginal likelihood of Bayesian networks with hidden variables
 Machine Learning
, 1997
"... We discuss Bayesian methods for learning Bayesian networks when data sets are incomplete. In particular, we examine asymptotic approximations for the marginal likelihood of incomplete data given a Bayesian network. We consider the Laplace approximation and the less accurate but more efficient BIC/MD ..."
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Cited by 195 (12 self)
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We discuss Bayesian methods for learning Bayesian networks when data sets are incomplete. In particular, we examine asymptotic approximations for the marginal likelihood of incomplete data given a Bayesian network. We consider the Laplace approximation and the less accurate but more efficient BIC/MDL approximation. We also consider approximations proposed by Draper (1993) and Cheeseman and Stutz (1995). These approximations are as efficient as BIC/MDL, but their accuracy has not been studied in any depth. We compare the accuracy of these approximations under the assumption that the Laplace approximation is the most accurate. In experiments using synthetic data generated from discrete naiveBayes models having a hidden root node, we find that (1) the BIC/MDL measure is the least accurate, having a bias in favor of simple models, and (2) the Draper and CS measures are the most accurate. 1
Calibration and Empirical Bayes Variable Selection
 Biometrika
, 1997
"... this paper, is that with F =2logp. This choice was proposed by Foster &G eorge (1994) where it was called the Risk Inflation Criterion (RIC) because it asymptotically minimises the maximum predictive risk inflation due to selection when X is orthogonal. This choice and its minimax property were ..."
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Cited by 191 (21 self)
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this paper, is that with F =2logp. This choice was proposed by Foster &G eorge (1994) where it was called the Risk Inflation Criterion (RIC) because it asymptotically minimises the maximum predictive risk inflation due to selection when X is orthogonal. This choice and its minimax property were also discovered independently by Donoho & Johnstone (1994) in the wavelet regression context, where they refer to it as the universal hard thresholding rule
Benchmark Priors for Bayesian Model Averaging
 FORTHCOMING IN THE JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS
, 2001
"... In contrast to a posterior analysis given a particular sampling model, posterior model probabilities in the context of model uncertainty are typically rather sensitive to the specification of the prior. In particular, “diffuse” priors on modelspecific parameters can lead to quite unexpected consequ ..."
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Cited by 171 (5 self)
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In contrast to a posterior analysis given a particular sampling model, posterior model probabilities in the context of model uncertainty are typically rather sensitive to the specification of the prior. In particular, “diffuse” priors on modelspecific parameters can lead to quite unexpected consequences. Here we focus on the practically relevant situation where we need to entertain a (large) number of sampling models and we have (or wish to use) little or no subjective prior information. We aim at providing an “automatic” or “benchmark” prior structure that can be used in such cases. We focus on the Normal linear regression model with uncertainty in the choice of regressors. We propose a partly noninformative prior structure related to a Natural Conjugate gprior specification, where the amount of subjective information requested from the user is limited to the choice of a single scalar hyperparameter g0j. The consequences of different choices for g0j are examined. We investigate theoretical properties, such as consistency of the implied Bayesian procedure. Links with classical information criteria are provided. More importantly, we examine the finite sample implications of several choices of g0j in a simulation study. The use of the MC3 algorithm of Madigan and York (1995), combined with efficient coding in Fortran, makes it feasible to conduct large simulations. In addition to posterior criteria, we shall also compare the predictive performance of different priors. A classic example concerning the economics of crime will also be provided and contrasted with results in the literature. The main findings of the paper will lead us to propose a “benchmark” prior specification in a linear regression context with model uncertainty.
Practical Bayesian Density Estimation Using Mixtures Of Normals
 Journal of the American Statistical Association
, 1995
"... this paper, we propose some solutions to these problems. Our goal is to come up with a simple, practical method for estimating the density. This is an interesting problem in its own right, as well as a first step towards solving other inference problems, such as providing more flexible distributions ..."
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Cited by 160 (2 self)
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this paper, we propose some solutions to these problems. Our goal is to come up with a simple, practical method for estimating the density. This is an interesting problem in its own right, as well as a first step towards solving other inference problems, such as providing more flexible distributions in hierarchical models. To see why the posterior is improper under the usual reference prior, we write the model in the following way. Let Z = (Z 1 ; : : : ; Z n ) and X = (X 1 ; : : : ; X n ). The Z
Learning the k in kmeans
 In Proc. 17th NIPS
, 2003
"... When clustering a dataset, the right number k of clusters to use is often not obvious, and choosing k automatically is a hard algorithmic problem. In this paper we present an improved algorithm for learning k while clustering. The Gmeans algorithm is based on a statistical test for the hypothesis t ..."
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Cited by 134 (5 self)
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When clustering a dataset, the right number k of clusters to use is often not obvious, and choosing k automatically is a hard algorithmic problem. In this paper we present an improved algorithm for learning k while clustering. The Gmeans algorithm is based on a statistical test for the hypothesis that a subset of data follows a Gaussian distribution. Gmeans runs kmeans with increasing k in a hierarchical fashion until the test accepts the hypothesis that the data assigned to each kmeans center are Gaussian. Two key advantages are that the hypothesis test does not limit the covariance of the data and does not compute a full covariance matrix. Additionally, Gmeans only requires one intuitive parameter, the standard statistical significance level α. We present results from experiments showing that the algorithm works well, and better than a recent method based on the BIC penalty for model complexity. In these experiments, we show that the BIC is ineffective as a scoring function, since it does