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Computations with Imprecise Parameters in Engineering Design: Background and Theory
 ASME JOURNAL OF MECHANISMS, TRANSMISSIONS, AND AUTOMATION IN DESIGN
, 1989
"... A technique to perform design calculations on imprecise representations of parameters has been developed and is presented. The level of imprecision in the description of design elements is typically high in the preliminary phase of engineering design. This imprecision is represented using the fuzzy ..."
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Cited by 58 (18 self)
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A technique to perform design calculations on imprecise representations of parameters has been developed and is presented. The level of imprecision in the description of design elements is typically high in the preliminary phase of engineering design. This imprecision is represented using the fuzzy calculus. Calculations can be performed using this method, to produce (imprecise) performance parameters from imprecise (input) design parameters. The Fuzzy Weighted Average technique is used to perform these calculations. A new metric, called the γlevel measure, is introduced to determine the relative coupling between imprecise inputs and outputs. The background and theory supporting this approach are presented, along with one example.
Applying Bayesian Belief Networks to Systems Dependability Assessment
 in Proceedings of Safety Critical Systems Club Symposium
, 1996
"... The dependability of technological systems is a growing social concern. Increasingly computer based systems are developed that carry the potential of increasing catastrophic consequences from single accidents. There have been significant research advances in assessment methods. However dependability ..."
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Cited by 26 (12 self)
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The dependability of technological systems is a growing social concern. Increasingly computer based systems are developed that carry the potential of increasing catastrophic consequences from single accidents. There have been significant research advances in assessment methods. However dependability assessment of computer systems in practice is still a very uncertain and often adhoc procedure. Decision making about system dependability is an uncertain affair and must account of failures in expertise and be capable of integrating different sources of evidence. A more meaningful way of reasoning about systems dependability can be achieved by rejecting current adhoc dependability assessment methods and replacing them with the idea of dependability argumentation. Bayesian Belief Networks (BBN’s) is proposed as the most promising technology to support this kind of dependability argumentation. 1
Imprecise probabilities of engineering system failure from random and fuzzy set reliability analysis
 In: de Cooman G, Fine TL, Seidenfeld T, editors. Proc 2nd International symposium on imprecise probabilities and their applications. Maastricht: Shaker Publishing
, 2001
"... Reliability analysis of engineering systems conventionally represents the system state variables as precise probability distributions and generates precise estimates of the probability of system failure. It is demonstrated how this conventional approach can be extended to handle imprecise knowledge ..."
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Cited by 10 (0 self)
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Reliability analysis of engineering systems conventionally represents the system state variables as precise probability distributions and generates precise estimates of the probability of system failure. It is demonstrated how this conventional approach can be extended to handle imprecise knowledge about the system state variables, represented in general as random sets, in order to generate bounds on the probability of failure. The conventional assumption of a precise limit state function is then relaxed. A new method based on linguistic covering of the state variable space with fuzzy set labels is introduced and is used to generate an imprecise limit state function from very scarce experimental data.
Confidence and risk
"... The concepts of confidence and risk are discussed with regard to the epistemological (philosophical) basis of risk assessment, and the uncertainty associated with the estimation and quantification of risks. Noting divergent views of the nature of knowledge and science, it is concluded that epistemol ..."
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The concepts of confidence and risk are discussed with regard to the epistemological (philosophical) basis of risk assessment, and the uncertainty associated with the estimation and quantification of risks. Noting divergent views of the nature of knowledge and science, it is concluded that epistemological issues cannot be objectively resolved or quarantined to protect the ‘objectivity ’ of a risk assessment process, and risk communicators should take account of epistemological issues that affect the way communicated results are interpreted and also affect public trust and confidence. In relation to the treatment of uncertain probabilities of failure, a new measure of ‘probabilistic confidence ’ is proposed to account for the concern that something may be unsafe (in relation to a target level of safety) and may subsequently fail. This measure of ‘probabilistic confidence ’ provides a rational basis for the determination of an appropriate characteristic value for an uncertain probability of failure.
LIVING WITH RISK: EXPLORING THE CONCEPT OF RISK WITH ADULTS WITH LEARNING DIFFICULTIES
"... adults with learning difficulties. PhD thesis. ..."
Future Identities: Changing
, 2013
"... This review has been commissioned as part of the UK Government’s Foresight project, Future Identities: Changing identities in the UK – the next 10 years. The views expressed do not represent policy of any government or organisation. ..."
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This review has been commissioned as part of the UK Government’s Foresight project, Future Identities: Changing identities in the UK – the next 10 years. The views expressed do not represent policy of any government or organisation.