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678
Dynamic Bayesian Networks: Representation, Inference and Learning
, 2002
"... Modelling sequential data is important in many areas of science and engineering. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Kalman filter models (KFMs) are popular for this because they are simple and flexible. For example, HMMs have been used for speech recognition and biosequence analysis, and KFMs have bee ..."
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Cited by 598 (3 self)
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Modelling sequential data is important in many areas of science and engineering. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Kalman filter models (KFMs) are popular for this because they are simple and flexible. For example, HMMs have been used for speech recognition and biosequence analysis, and KFMs have been used for problems ranging from tracking planes and missiles to predicting the economy. However, HMMs
and KFMs are limited in their “expressive power”. Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) generalize HMMs by allowing the state space to be represented in factored form, instead of as a single discrete random variable. DBNs generalize KFMs by allowing arbitrary probability distributions, not just (unimodal) linearGaussian. In this thesis, I will discuss how to represent many different kinds of models as DBNs, how to perform exact and approximate inference in DBNs, and how to learn DBN models from sequential data.
In particular, the main novel technical contributions of this thesis are as follows: a way of representing
Hierarchical HMMs as DBNs, which enables inference to be done in O(T) time instead of O(T 3), where T is the length of the sequence; an exact smoothing algorithm that takes O(log T) space instead of O(T); a simple way of using the junction tree algorithm for online inference in DBNs; new complexity bounds on exact online inference in DBNs; a new deterministic approximate inference algorithm called factored frontier; an analysis of the relationship between the BK algorithm and loopy belief propagation; a way of
applying RaoBlackwellised particle filtering to DBNs in general, and the SLAM (simultaneous localization
and mapping) problem in particular; a way of extending the structural EM algorithm to DBNs; and a variety of different applications of DBNs. However, perhaps the main value of the thesis is its catholic presentation of the field of sequential data modelling.
Object Tracking: A Survey
, 2006
"... The goal of this article is to review the stateoftheart tracking methods, classify them into different categories, and identify new trends. Object tracking, in general, is a challenging problem. Difficulties in tracking objects can arise due to abrupt object motion, changing appearance patterns o ..."
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Cited by 362 (6 self)
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The goal of this article is to review the stateoftheart tracking methods, classify them into different categories, and identify new trends. Object tracking, in general, is a challenging problem. Difficulties in tracking objects can arise due to abrupt object motion, changing appearance patterns of both the object and the scene, nonrigid object structures, objecttoobject and objecttoscene occlusions, and camera motion. Tracking is usually performed in the context of higherlevel applications that require the location and/or shape of the object in every frame. Typically, assumptions are made to constrain the tracking problem in the context of a particular application. In this survey, we categorize the tracking methods on the basis of the object and motion representations used, provide detailed descriptions of representative methods in each category, and examine their pros and cons. Moreover, we discuss the important issues related to tracking including the use of appropriate image features, selection of motion models, and detection of objects.
M.: A Bayesian networks approach for predicting proteinprotein interactions from genomic data
 Science
, 2003
"... We developed an approach using Bayesian networks to predict proteinprotein interactions genomewide in yeast. Our method naturally weights and combines into reliable predictions genomic features only weakly associated with interaction (e.g., mRNA coexpression, coessentiality and colocalization). ..."
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Cited by 208 (10 self)
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We developed an approach using Bayesian networks to predict proteinprotein interactions genomewide in yeast. Our method naturally weights and combines into reliable predictions genomic features only weakly associated with interaction (e.g., mRNA coexpression, coessentiality and colocalization). In addition to de novo predictions, it can integrate often noisy, experimental interaction datasets. We observe that at given levels of sensitivity our predictions are more accurate than the existing highthroughput experimental datasets. We validate our predictions with new TAPtagging experiments. Our analysis, which gives a comprehensive view of yeast interactions, is available at genecensus.org/intint. 2 Many fundamental cellular processes involve proteinprotein interactions, and comprehensively identifying them is important to systematically defining the biological role of proteins. New experimental and computational methods have vastly increased the number of known or putative interactions, catalogued in databases (17). Much genomic information also relates to interactions indirectly: Interacting proteins are often
The Bayes Net Toolbox for MATLAB
 Computing Science and Statistics
, 2001
"... The Bayes Net Toolbox (BNT) is an opensource Matlab package for directed graphical models. BNT supports many kinds of nodes (probability distributions), exact and approximate inference, parameter and structure learning, and static and dynamic models. BNT is widely used in teaching and research: the ..."
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Cited by 186 (1 self)
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The Bayes Net Toolbox (BNT) is an opensource Matlab package for directed graphical models. BNT supports many kinds of nodes (probability distributions), exact and approximate inference, parameter and structure learning, and static and dynamic models. BNT is widely used in teaching and research: the web page has received over 28,000 hits since May 2000. In this paper, we discuss a broad spectrum of issues related to graphical models (directed and undirected), and describe, at a highlevel, how BNT was designed to cope with them all. We also compare BNT to other software packages for graphical models, and to the nascent OpenBayes effort.
Partially observable markov decision processes with continuous observations for dialogue management
 Computer Speech and Language
, 2005
"... This work shows how a dialogue model can be represented as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) with observations composed of a discrete and continuous component. The continuous component enables the model to directly incorporate a confidence score for automated planning. Using a t ..."
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Cited by 160 (43 self)
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This work shows how a dialogue model can be represented as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) with observations composed of a discrete and continuous component. The continuous component enables the model to directly incorporate a confidence score for automated planning. Using a testbed simulated dialogue management problem, we show how recent optimization techniques are able to find a policy for this continuous POMDP which outperforms a traditional MDP approach. Further, we present a method for automatically improving handcrafted dialogue managers by incorporating POMDP belief state monitoring, including confidence score information. Experiments on the testbed system show significant improvements for several example handcrafted dialogue managers across a range of operating conditions. 1
Perspectives on system identification
 In Plenary talk at the proceedings of the 17th IFAC World Congress, Seoul, South Korea
, 2008
"... System identification is the art and science of building mathematical models of dynamic systems from observed inputoutput data. It can be seen as the interface between the real world of applications and the mathematical world of control theory and model abstractions. As such, it is an ubiquitous ne ..."
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Cited by 91 (3 self)
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System identification is the art and science of building mathematical models of dynamic systems from observed inputoutput data. It can be seen as the interface between the real world of applications and the mathematical world of control theory and model abstractions. As such, it is an ubiquitous necessity for successful applications. System identification is a very large topic, with different techniques that depend on the character of the models to be estimated: linear, nonlinear, hybrid, nonparametric etc. At the same time, the area can be characterized by a small number of leading principles, e.g. to look for sustainable descriptions by proper decisions in the triangle of model complexity, information contents in the data, and effective validation. The area has many facets and there are many approaches and methods. A tutorial or a survey in a few pages is not quite possible. Instead, this presentation aims at giving an overview of the “science ” side, i.e. basic principles and results and at pointing to open problem areas in the practical, “art”, side of how to approach and solve a real problem. 1.
Probabilistic inductive logic programming
 In ALT
, 2004
"... Abstract. Probabilistic inductive logic programming aka. statistical relational learning addresses one of the central questions of artificial intelligence: the integration of probabilistic reasoning with machine learning and first order and relational logic representations. A rich variety of diffe ..."
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Cited by 56 (8 self)
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Abstract. Probabilistic inductive logic programming aka. statistical relational learning addresses one of the central questions of artificial intelligence: the integration of probabilistic reasoning with machine learning and first order and relational logic representations. A rich variety of different formalisms and learning techniques have been developed. A unifying characterization of the underlying learning settings, however, is missing so far. In this chapter, we start from inductive logic programming and sketch how the inductive logic programming formalisms, settings and techniques can be extended to the statistical case. More precisely, we outline three classical settings for inductive logic programming, namely learning from entailment, learning from interpretations, and learning from proofs or traces, and show how they can be adapted to cover stateoftheart statistical relational learning approaches. 1
Clp(bn): Constraint logic programming for probabilistic knowledge
 In Proceedings of the 19th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI03
, 2003
"... Abstract. In Datalog, missing values are represented by Skolem constants. More generally, in logic programming missing values, or existentially quantified variables, are represented by terms built from Skolem functors. The CLP(BN) language represents the joint probability distribution over missing v ..."
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Cited by 53 (6 self)
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Abstract. In Datalog, missing values are represented by Skolem constants. More generally, in logic programming missing values, or existentially quantified variables, are represented by terms built from Skolem functors. The CLP(BN) language represents the joint probability distribution over missing values in a database or logic program by using constraints to represent Skolem functions. Algorithms from inductive logic programming (ILP) can be used with only minor modification to learn CLP(BN) programs. An implementation of CLP(BN) is publicly available as part of YAP Prolog at
MEBN: A Language for FirstOrder Bayesian Knowledge Bases
"... Although classical firstorder logic is the de facto standard logical foundation for artificial intelligence, the lack of a builtin, semantically grounded capability for reasoning under uncertainty renders it inadequate for many important classes of problems. Probability is the bestunderstood and m ..."
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Cited by 48 (19 self)
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Although classical firstorder logic is the de facto standard logical foundation for artificial intelligence, the lack of a builtin, semantically grounded capability for reasoning under uncertainty renders it inadequate for many important classes of problems. Probability is the bestunderstood and most widely applied formalism for computational scientific reasoning under uncertainty. Increasingly expressive languages are emerging for which the fundamental logical basis is probability. This paper presents MultiEntity Bayesian Networks (MEBN), a firstorder language for specifying probabilistic knowledge bases as parameterized fragments of Bayesian networks. MEBN fragments (MFrags) can be instantiated and combined to form arbitrarily complex graphical probability models. An MFrag represents probabilistic relationships among a conceptually meaningful group of uncertain hypotheses. Thus, MEBN facilitates representation of knowledge at a natural level of granularity. The semantics of MEBN assigns a probability distribution over interpretations of an associated classical firstorder theory on a finite or countably infinite domain. Bayesian inference provides both a proof theory for combining prior knowledge with observations, and a learning theory for refining a representation as evidence accrues. A proof is given that MEBN can represent a probability distribution on interpretations of any finitely axiomatizable firstorder theory.
Anomalous System Call Detection
 ACM Transactions on Information and System Security
, 2006
"... this paper presents a novel anomaly detection approach that takes into account the information contained in system call arguments. We introduce several models that learn the characteristics of legitimate argument values and are capable of finding malicious instances. Based on the proposed models, we ..."
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Cited by 48 (5 self)
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this paper presents a novel anomaly detection approach that takes into account the information contained in system call arguments. We introduce several models that learn the characteristics of legitimate argument values and are capable of finding malicious instances. Based on the proposed models, we developed a hostbased intrusion detection system that monitors running applications to identify malicious behavior. The system includes a novel technique for performing Bayesian classification of the outputs of individual detection models. This technique provides an improvement over the nave thresholdbased schemes traditionally used to combine model outputs