Results 1  10
of
70
Graphical models for preference and utility
 In Proc. UAI
, 1995
"... Probabilistic independence can dramatically simplify the task of eliciting, representing, and computing with probabilities in large domains. A key technique in achieving these benefits is the idea of graphical modeling. We survey existing notions of independence for utility functions in a multiattr ..."
Abstract

Cited by 126 (1 self)
 Add to MetaCart
Probabilistic independence can dramatically simplify the task of eliciting, representing, and computing with probabilities in large domains. A key technique in achieving these benefits is the idea of graphical modeling. We survey existing notions of independence for utility functions in a multiattribute space, and suggest that these can be used to achieve similar advantages. Our new results concern conditional additive independence, which we show always has a perfect representation as separation in an undirected graph (a Markov network). Conditional additive independencies entail a particular functional form for the utility function that is analogous to a product decomposition of a probability function, and confers analogous benefits. This functional form has been utilized in the Bayesian network and influence diagram literature, but generally without an explanation in terms of independence. The functional form yields a decomposition of the utility function that can greatly speed up expected utility calculations, particularly when the utility graph has a similar topology to the probabilistic network being used. 1
Psychological Expected Utility Theory and Anticipatory Feelings
 Center, New York University
, 1997
"... We extend expected utility theory to situations in which agents experience feelings of anticipation prior to the resolution of uncertainty. We show how these anticipatory feelings may result in time inconsistency. We provide an example from portfolio theory to illustrate the potential impact of anti ..."
Abstract

Cited by 120 (3 self)
 Add to MetaCart
We extend expected utility theory to situations in which agents experience feelings of anticipation prior to the resolution of uncertainty. We show how these anticipatory feelings may result in time inconsistency. We provide an example from portfolio theory to illustrate the potential impact of anticipation on asset prices. I.
Toward a method of selecting among computational models of cognition
 Psychological Review
, 2002
"... The question of how one should decide among competing explanations of data is at the heart of the scientific enterprise. Computational models of cognition are increasingly being advanced as explanations of behavior. The success of this line of inquiry depends on the development of robust methods to ..."
Abstract

Cited by 74 (4 self)
 Add to MetaCart
The question of how one should decide among competing explanations of data is at the heart of the scientific enterprise. Computational models of cognition are increasingly being advanced as explanations of behavior. The success of this line of inquiry depends on the development of robust methods to guide the evaluation and selection of these models. This article introduces a method of selecting among mathematical models of cognition known as minimum description length, which provides an intuitive and theoretically wellgrounded understanding of why one model should be chosen. A central but elusive concept in model selection, complexity, can also be derived with the method. The adequacy of the method is demonstrated in 3 areas of cognitive modeling: psychophysics, information integration, and categorization. How should one choose among competing theoretical explanations of data? This question is at the heart of the scientific enterprise, regardless of whether verbal models are being tested in an experimental setting or computational models are being evaluated in simulations. A number of criteria have been proposed to assist in this endeavor, summarized nicely by Jacobs and Grainger
Independence and Qualitative Decision Theory
 In Proceedings of KR'96
, 1997
"... Probabilistic independence has proved to be a fundamental tool that can dramatically simplify the task of eliciting, representing, and computing with probabilities. We advance the position that notions of utility independence can serve similar functions when reasoning about preferences and uti ..."
Abstract

Cited by 54 (0 self)
 Add to MetaCart
Probabilistic independence has proved to be a fundamental tool that can dramatically simplify the task of eliciting, representing, and computing with probabilities. We advance the position that notions of utility independence can serve similar functions when reasoning about preferences and utilities during decision making.
The Priority Heuristic: Making Choices without TradeOffs
 Psychological Review
, 2006
"... Bernoulli’s framework of expected utility serves as a model for various psychological processes, including motivation, moral sense, attitudes, and decision making. To account for evidence at variance with expected utility, the authors generalize the framework of fast and frugal heuristics from infer ..."
Abstract

Cited by 44 (8 self)
 Add to MetaCart
Bernoulli’s framework of expected utility serves as a model for various psychological processes, including motivation, moral sense, attitudes, and decision making. To account for evidence at variance with expected utility, the authors generalize the framework of fast and frugal heuristics from inferences to preferences. The priority heuristic predicts (a) the Allais paradox, (b) risk aversion for gains if probabilities are high, (c) risk seeking for gains if probabilities are low (e.g., lottery tickets), (d) risk aversion for losses if probabilities are low (e.g., buying insurance), (e) risk seeking for losses if probabilities are high, (f) the certainty effect, (g) the possibility effect, and (h) intransitivities. The authors test how accurately the heuristic predicts people’s choices, compared with previously proposed heuristics and 3 modifications of expected utility theory: securitypotential/aspiration theory, transferofattentionexchange model, and cumulative prospect theory.
Imprecision in Engineering Design
 ASME JOURNAL OF MECHANICAL DESIGN
, 1995
"... Methods for incorporating imprecision in engineering design decisionmaking are briefly reviewed and compared. A tutorial is presented on the Method of Imprecision (MoI), a formal method, based on the mathematics of fuzzy sets, for representing and manipulating imprecision in engineering design. The ..."
Abstract

Cited by 33 (6 self)
 Add to MetaCart
Methods for incorporating imprecision in engineering design decisionmaking are briefly reviewed and compared. A tutorial is presented on the Method of Imprecision (MoI), a formal method, based on the mathematics of fuzzy sets, for representing and manipulating imprecision in engineering design. The results of a design cost estimation example, utilizing a new informal cost specification, are presented. The MoI can provide formal information upon which to base decisions during preliminary engineering design and can facilitate setbased concurrent design.
The method of imprecision compared to utility theory for design selection problems
 In Proceedings of the 1993 ASME Design Theory and Methodology Conference
, 1993
"... Two methods have been proposed for manipulating uncertainty reflecting designer choice: utility theory and the method of imprecision. Both methods represent this uncertainty across decision making attributes with zero to one ranks, higher preference modeled with a higher rank. The two methods can di ..."
Abstract

Cited by 20 (5 self)
 Add to MetaCart
Two methods have been proposed for manipulating uncertainty reflecting designer choice: utility theory and the method of imprecision. Both methods represent this uncertainty across decision making attributes with zero to one ranks, higher preference modeled with a higher rank. The two methods can differ, however, in the combination metrics used to combine the ranks of the incommensurate design attributes. Utility theory resolves the multiattributes using various well proven additive metrics. In contrast, the method of imprecision resolves by also considering nonadditive metrics, such as ranking by the worst case performance or by multiplicative metrics. The axioms of utility theory are appropriate for designs where it is deemed the attributes can always be traded off, even to the point of achieving zero preference in some attributes. In the case of a design with attributes which cannot have zero preference, such as stress limits or maximum allowed cost, the method of imprecision is more appropriate: it trades off attribute levels without permitting any of them to be traded off to zero performance. 1
Rational coordination in multiagent environments
 JAAMAS
, 2000
"... Abstract. We adopt the decisiontheoretic principle of expected utility maximization as a paradigm for designing autonomous rational agents, and present a framework that uses this paradigm to determine the choice of coordinated action. We endow an agent with a specialized representation that capture ..."
Abstract

Cited by 19 (5 self)
 Add to MetaCart
Abstract. We adopt the decisiontheoretic principle of expected utility maximization as a paradigm for designing autonomous rational agents, and present a framework that uses this paradigm to determine the choice of coordinated action. We endow an agent with a specialized representation that captures the agent’s knowledge about the environment and about the other agents, including its knowledge about their states of knowledge, which can include what they know about the other agents, and so on. This reciprocity leads to a recursive nesting of models. Our framework puts forth a representation for the recursive models and, under the assumption that the nesting of models is finite, uses dynamic programming to solve this representation for the agent’s rational choice of action. Using a decisiontheoretic approach, our work addresses concerns of agent decisionmaking about coordinated action in unpredictable situations, without imposing upon agents predesigned prescriptions, or protocols, about standard rules of interaction. We implemented our method in a number of domains and we show results of coordination among our automated agents, among humancontrolled agents, and among our agents coordinating with humancontrolled agents. Keywords: coordination; rationality; decision theory; game theory; agent modeling 1.
An Initial Theory of Value‐Based Software Engineering
 Value‐ Based Software Engineering
, 2005
"... How far that little candle throws his beams! Make that three candles, follow the beam, and you have a dissertation. I have been most fortunate to have such three distinct guides that have carried me through in times of need, and lead me towards success. Professors Barry Boehm, Stan Rifkin and Paul A ..."
Abstract

Cited by 16 (9 self)
 Add to MetaCart
How far that little candle throws his beams! Make that three candles, follow the beam, and you have a dissertation. I have been most fortunate to have such three distinct guides that have carried me through in times of need, and lead me towards success. Professors Barry Boehm, Stan Rifkin and Paul Adler, without you I would not have been sitting today, writing this final page in concluding a degree that only few can dream, and fewer actually achieve. Professor Barry Boehm, the ways and things an individual can learn from you is no less than the number of times “risk ” has been used in the literature of software engineering. Having been your student, I have found a new identity that outshines all others, and I pride in it. It goes “Apurva is a Boehm student ” period. Professor Stan Rifkin, the intersection at which engineering and social sciences meet, I thought was a place not known to any until you helped me find it. The journey was very rough, but I would not have seen the end if not for your kindness and compassion that kept me going. Professor Paul Adler, when its about organization theory, there’s Marx and