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124
Dynamic Bayesian Networks: Representation, Inference and Learning
, 2002
"... Modelling sequential data is important in many areas of science and engineering. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Kalman filter models (KFMs) are popular for this because they are simple and flexible. For example, HMMs have been used for speech recognition and biosequence analysis, and KFMs have bee ..."
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Cited by 563 (3 self)
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Modelling sequential data is important in many areas of science and engineering. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) and Kalman filter models (KFMs) are popular for this because they are simple and flexible. For example, HMMs have been used for speech recognition and biosequence analysis, and KFMs have been used for problems ranging from tracking planes and missiles to predicting the economy. However, HMMs
and KFMs are limited in their “expressive power”. Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs) generalize HMMs by allowing the state space to be represented in factored form, instead of as a single discrete random variable. DBNs generalize KFMs by allowing arbitrary probability distributions, not just (unimodal) linearGaussian. In this thesis, I will discuss how to represent many different kinds of models as DBNs, how to perform exact and approximate inference in DBNs, and how to learn DBN models from sequential data.
In particular, the main novel technical contributions of this thesis are as follows: a way of representing
Hierarchical HMMs as DBNs, which enables inference to be done in O(T) time instead of O(T 3), where T is the length of the sequence; an exact smoothing algorithm that takes O(log T) space instead of O(T); a simple way of using the junction tree algorithm for online inference in DBNs; new complexity bounds on exact online inference in DBNs; a new deterministic approximate inference algorithm called factored frontier; an analysis of the relationship between the BK algorithm and loopy belief propagation; a way of
applying RaoBlackwellised particle filtering to DBNs in general, and the SLAM (simultaneous localization
and mapping) problem in particular; a way of extending the structural EM algorithm to DBNs; and a variety of different applications of DBNs. However, perhaps the main value of the thesis is its catholic presentation of the field of sequential data modelling.
Convergence of Sequential Monte Carlo Methods
 Sequential Monte Carlo Methods in Practice
, 2000
"... Bayesian estimation problems where the posterior distribution evolves over time through the accumulation of data arise in many applications in statistics and related fields. Recently, a large number of algorithms and applications based on sequential Monte Carlo methods (also known as particle filter ..."
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Cited by 140 (11 self)
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Bayesian estimation problems where the posterior distribution evolves over time through the accumulation of data arise in many applications in statistics and related fields. Recently, a large number of algorithms and applications based on sequential Monte Carlo methods (also known as particle filtering methods) have appeared in the literature to solve this class of problems; see (Doucet, de Freitas & Gordon, 2001) for a survey. However, few of these methods have been proved to converge rigorously. The purpose of this paper is to address this issue. We present a general sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method which includes most of the important features present in current SMC methods. This method generalizes and encompasses many recent algorithms. Under mild regularity conditions, we obtain rigorous convergence results for this general SMC method and therefore give theoretical backing for the validity of all the algorithms that can be obtained as particular cases of it. Keywords: Bayesian...
Marginalized particle filters for mixed linear/nonlinear statespace models
 IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing
, 2005
"... Abstract—The particle filter offers a general numerical tool to approximate the posterior density function for the state in nonlinear and nonGaussian filtering problems. While the particle filter is fairly easy to implement and tune, its main drawback is that it is quite computer intensive, with th ..."
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Cited by 60 (21 self)
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Abstract—The particle filter offers a general numerical tool to approximate the posterior density function for the state in nonlinear and nonGaussian filtering problems. While the particle filter is fairly easy to implement and tune, its main drawback is that it is quite computer intensive, with the computational complexity increasing quickly with the state dimension. One remedy to this problem is to marginalize out the states appearing linearly in the dynamics. The result is that one Kalman filter is associated with each particle. The main contribution in this paper is the derivation of the details for the marginalized particle filter for a general nonlinear statespace model. Several important special cases occurring in typical signal processing applications will also be discussed. The marginalized particle filter is applied to an integrated navigation system for aircraft. It is demonstrated that the complete highdimensional system can be based on a particle filter using marginalization for all but three states. Excellent performance on real flight data is reported. Index Terms—Kalman filter, marginalization, navigation systems, nonlinear systems, particle filter, state estimation. I.
Central limit theorem for sequential monte carlo methods and its application to bayesian inference
 Ann. Statist
"... “particle filters, ” refers to a general class of iterative algorithms that performs Monte Carlo approximations of a given sequence of distributions of interest (πt). We establish in this paper a central limit theorem for the Monte Carlo estimates produced by these computational methods. This result ..."
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Cited by 57 (2 self)
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“particle filters, ” refers to a general class of iterative algorithms that performs Monte Carlo approximations of a given sequence of distributions of interest (πt). We establish in this paper a central limit theorem for the Monte Carlo estimates produced by these computational methods. This result holds under minimal assumptions on the distributions πt, and applies in a general framework which encompasses most of the sequential Monte Carlo methods that have been considered in the literature, including the resamplemove algorithm of Gilks and Berzuini [J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. B Stat. Methodol. 63 (2001) 127–146] and the residual resampling scheme. The corresponding asymptotic variances provide a convenient measurement of the precision of a given particle filter. We study, in particular, in some typical examples of Bayesian applications, whether and at which rate these asymptotic variances diverge in time, in order to assess the long term reliability of the considered algorithm. 1. Introduction. Sequential Monte Carlo methods form an emerging
Monte Carlo Methods for Tempo Tracking and Rhythm Quantization
 JOURNAL OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE RESEARCH
, 2003
"... We present a probabilistic generarive model for timing deviations in expressive music performance. The structure of the proposed model is equivalent to a switching state space model. The switch variables correspond to discrete note locations as in a musical score. The continuous hidden variables ..."
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Cited by 53 (9 self)
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We present a probabilistic generarive model for timing deviations in expressive music performance. The structure of the proposed model is equivalent to a switching state space model. The switch variables correspond to discrete note locations as in a musical score. The continuous hidden variables denote the tempo. We formulate two well known music recognition problems, namely tempo tracking and automatic transcription (rhythm quantization) as filtering and maximum a posteriori (MAP) state estimation tasks. Ex act computation of posterior features such as the MAP state is intractable in this model class, so we introduce Monte Carlo methods for integration and optimization. We compare Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods (such as Gibbs sampling, simulated annealing and iterative improvement) and sequential Monte Carlo methods (particle filters). Our simulation results suggest better results with sequential methods. The methods can be applied in both online and batch scenarios such as tempo tracking and transcription and are thus potentially useful in a number of music applications such as adaptive automatic accompaniment, score typesetting and music information retrieval.
Modeling and Decoding Motor Cortical Activity Using a Switching Kalman Filter
, 2004
"... We present a Switching Kalman Filter Model for the realtime inference of hand kinematics from a population of motor cortical neurons. Firing rates are modeled as a Gaussian mixture where the mean of each Gaussian component is a linear function of hand kinematics. A "hidden state" models the probabil ..."
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Cited by 42 (8 self)
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We present a Switching Kalman Filter Model for the realtime inference of hand kinematics from a population of motor cortical neurons. Firing rates are modeled as a Gaussian mixture where the mean of each Gaussian component is a linear function of hand kinematics. A "hidden state" models the probability of each mixture component and evolves over time in a Markov chain. The model generalizes previous encoding and decoding methods, addresses the nonGaussian nature of firing rates, and can cope with crudely sorted neural data common in online prosthetic applications.
Particle filter theory and practice with positioning applications
 IEEE Aerospace and Electronic Systems Magazine
, 2010
"... N.B.: When citing this work, cite the original article. ©2010 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. However, permission to reprint/republish this material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or to ..."
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Cited by 28 (9 self)
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N.B.: When citing this work, cite the original article. ©2010 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. However, permission to reprint/republish this material for advertising or promotional purposes or for creating new collective works for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or to reuse any copyrighted
On Computational Methods for Nonlinear Estimation
 THESIS NO
, 2003
"... The Bayesian approach provides a rather powerful framework for handling nonlinear, as well as linear, estimation problems. We can in fact pose a general solution to the nonlinear estimation problem. However, in the general case there does not exist any closedform solution and we are forced to use a ..."
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Cited by 18 (0 self)
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The Bayesian approach provides a rather powerful framework for handling nonlinear, as well as linear, estimation problems. We can in fact pose a general solution to the nonlinear estimation problem. However, in the general case there does not exist any closedform solution and we are forced to use approximate techniques. In this thesis we will study one such technique, the sequential Monte Carlo method, commonly referred to as the particle filter. Some work on linear stochastic differentialalgebraic equations and constrained estimation using convex optimization will also be presented. The sequential Monte Carlo method offers a systematic framework for handling estimation of nonlinear systems subject to nonGaussian noise. Its main drawback is that it requires a lot of computational power. We will use the particle filter both for the nonlinear state estimation problem and the nonlinear system identification
Particle learning and smoothing
 Statistical Science
, 2010
"... In this paper we develop particle learning (PL) methods for state filtering, sequential parameter learning and smoothing in a general class of nonlinear state space models. The approach extends existing particle methods by incorporating static parameters and utilizing sufficient statistics for the p ..."
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Cited by 18 (7 self)
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In this paper we develop particle learning (PL) methods for state filtering, sequential parameter learning and smoothing in a general class of nonlinear state space models. The approach extends existing particle methods by incorporating static parameters and utilizing sufficient statistics for the parameters and/or the states as particles. State smoothing with parameter uncertainty is also solved as a by product of particle learning. In a number of applications, we show that our algorithms outperform existing particle filtering algorithms as well as MCMC.