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A Bayesian method for the induction of probabilistic networks from data
- MACHINE LEARNING
, 1992
"... This paper presents a Bayesian method for constructing probabilistic networks from databases. In particular, we focus on constructing Bayesian belief networks. Potential applications include computer-assisted hypothesis testing, automated scientific discovery, and automated construction of probabili ..."
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Cited by 1400 (31 self)
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This paper presents a Bayesian method for constructing probabilistic networks from databases. In particular, we focus on constructing Bayesian belief networks. Potential applications include computer-assisted hypothesis testing, automated scientific discovery, and automated construction of probabilistic expert systems. We extend the basic method to handle missing data and hidden (latent) variables. We show how to perform probabilistic inference by averaging over the inferences of multiple belief networks. Results are presented of a preliminary evaluation of an algorithm for constructing a belief network from a database of cases. Finally, we relate the methods in this paper to previous work, and we discuss open problems.
Approximate Signal Processing
, 1997
"... It is increasingly important to structure signal processing algorithms and systems to allow for trading off between the accuracy of results and the utilization of resources in their implementation. In any particular context, there are typically a variety of heuristic approaches to managing these tra ..."
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Cited by 538 (2 self)
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It is increasingly important to structure signal processing algorithms and systems to allow for trading off between the accuracy of results and the utilization of resources in their implementation. In any particular context, there are typically a variety of heuristic approaches to managing these tradeoffs. One of the objectives of this paper is to suggest that there is the potential for developing a more formal approach, including utilizing current research in Computer Science on Approximate Processing and one of its central concepts, Incremental Refinement. Toward this end, we first summarize a number of ideas and approaches to approximate processing as currently being formulated in the computer science community. We then present four examples of signal processing algorithms/systems that are structured with these goals in mind. These examples may be viewed as partial inroads toward the ultimate objective of developing, within the context of signal processing design and implementation,...
Connectionist Learning Procedures
- ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
, 1989
"... A major goal of research on networks of neuron-like processing units is to discover efficient learning procedures that allow these networks to construct complex internal representations of their environment. The learning procedures must be capable of modifying the connection strengths in such a way ..."
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Cited by 410 (9 self)
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A major goal of research on networks of neuron-like processing units is to discover efficient learning procedures that allow these networks to construct complex internal representations of their environment. The learning procedures must be capable of modifying the connection strengths in such a way that internal units which are not part of the input or output come to represent important features of the task domain. Several interesting gradient-descent procedures have recently been discovered. Each connection computes the derivative, with respect to the connection strength, of a global measure of the error in the performance of the network. The strength is then adjusted in the direction that decreases the error. These relatively simple, gradient-descent learning procedures work well for small tasks and the new challenge is to find ways of improving their convergence rate and their generalization abilities so that they can be applied to larger, more realistic tasks.
Learning Bayesian belief networks: An approach based on the MDL principle
- Computational Intelligence
, 1994
"... A new approach for learning Bayesian belief networks from raw data is presented. The approach is based on Rissanen's Minimal Description Length (MDL) principle, which is particularly well suited for this task. Our approach does not require any prior assumptions about the distribution being lear ..."
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Cited by 254 (7 self)
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A new approach for learning Bayesian belief networks from raw data is presented. The approach is based on Rissanen's Minimal Description Length (MDL) principle, which is particularly well suited for this task. Our approach does not require any prior assumptions about the distribution being learned. In particular, our method can learn unrestricted multiply-connected belief networks. Furthermore, unlike other approaches our method allows us to tradeo accuracy and complexity in the learned model. This is important since if the learned model is very complex (highly connected) it can be conceptually and computationally intractable. In such a case it would be preferable to use a simpler model even if it is less accurate. The MDL principle o ers a reasoned method for making this tradeo. We also show that our method generalizes previous approaches based on Kullback cross-entropy. Experiments have been conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the approach. Keywords: Knowledge Acquisition � Bayes Nets � Uncertainty Reasoning. 1
Reasoning about beliefs and actions under computational resource constraints
- in Proceedings of the 1989 Workshop on Uncertainty and AI
, 1987
"... Although many investigators arm a desire to build reasoning systems that behave consistently with the axiomatic basis dened by probability theory and utility theory, limited resources for engineering and computation can make a complete normative anal-ysis impossible. We attempt to move discussion be ..."
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Cited by 219 (22 self)
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Although many investigators arm a desire to build reasoning systems that behave consistently with the axiomatic basis dened by probability theory and utility theory, limited resources for engineering and computation can make a complete normative anal-ysis impossible. We attempt to move discussion beyond the debate over the scope of problems that can be handled eectively to cases where it is clear that there are in-sucient computational resources to perform an analysis deemed as complete. Under these conditions, we stress the importance of considering the expected costs and benets of applying alternative approximation procedures and heuristics for computation and knowledge acquisition. We discuss how knowledge about the structure of user utility can be used to control value tradeos for tailoring inference to alternative contexts. We address the notion of real-time rationality, focusing on the application of knowledge about the expected timewise-renement abilities of reasoning strategies to balance the bene ts of additional computation with the costs of acting with a partial result. We dis-cuss the benets of applying decision theory to control the solution of dicult problems given limitations and uncertainty in reasoning resources. 1
The Complexity of Logic-Based Abduction
, 1993
"... Abduction is an important form of nonmonotonic reasoning allowing one to find explanations for certain symptoms or manifestations. When the application domain is described by a logical theory, we speak about logic-based abduction. Candidates for abductive explanations are usually subjected to minima ..."
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Cited by 193 (28 self)
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Abduction is an important form of nonmonotonic reasoning allowing one to find explanations for certain symptoms or manifestations. When the application domain is described by a logical theory, we speak about logic-based abduction. Candidates for abductive explanations are usually subjected to minimality criteria such as subsetminimality, minimal cardinality, minimal weight, or minimality under prioritization of individual hypotheses. This paper presents a comprehensive complexity analysis of relevant decision and search problems related to abduction on propositional theories. Our results indicate that abduction is harder than deduction. In particular, we show that with the most basic forms of abduction the relevant decision problems are complete for complexity classes at the second level of the polynomial hierarchy, while the use of prioritization raises the complexity to the third level in certain cases.
An Architecture for Adaptive Intelligent Systems
, 1999
"... Our goal is to understand and build comprehensive agents that function effectively in challenging niches. In particular, we identify a class of niches to be occupied by "adaptive intelligent systems (AISs)." In contrast with niches occupied by typical AI agents, AIS niches present situatio ..."
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Cited by 165 (12 self)
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Our goal is to understand and build comprehensive agents that function effectively in challenging niches. In particular, we identify a class of niches to be occupied by "adaptive intelligent systems (AISs)." In contrast with niches occupied by typical AI agents, AIS niches present situations that vary dynamically along several key dimensions: different combinations of required tasks, different configurations of available resources, contextual conditions ranging from benign to stressful, and different performance criteria. We present a small class hierarchy of AIS niches that exhibit these dimensions of variability and describe a particular AIS niche, ICU (intensive care unit) patient monitoring, which we use for illustration throughout the paper. To function effectively throughout the range of situations presented by an AIS niche, an agent must be highly adaptive. In contrast with the rather stereotypic behavior of typical AI agents, an AIS must adapt several key aspects of its behavio...
Axioms for probability and belief-function propagation
- Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence
, 1990
"... In this paper, we describe an abstract framework and axioms under which exact local computation of marginals is possible. The primitive objects of the framework are variables and valuations. The primitive operators of the framework are combination and marginalization. These operate on valuations. We ..."
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Cited by 164 (23 self)
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In this paper, we describe an abstract framework and axioms under which exact local computation of marginals is possible. The primitive objects of the framework are variables and valuations. The primitive operators of the framework are combination and marginalization. These operate on valuations. We state three axioms for these operators and we derive the possibility of local computation from the axioms. Next, we describe a propagation scheme for computing marginals of a valuation when we have a factorization of the valuation on a hypertree. Finally we show how the problem of computing marginals of joint probability distributions and joint belief functions fits the general framework. 1.
On the Logic of Causal Models
, 1988
"... This paper explores the role of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) as a representation of conditional independence relationships. We show that DAGs offer polynomially sound and complete inference mechanisms for inferring conditional independence relationships from a given causal set of such relationship ..."
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Cited by 157 (15 self)
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This paper explores the role of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) as a representation of conditional independence relationships. We show that DAGs offer polynomially sound and complete inference mechanisms for inferring conditional independence relationships from a given causal set of such relationships. As a consequence, d-separation, a graphical criterion for identifying independencies in a DAG, is shown to uncover more valid independencies then any other criterion. In addition, we employ the Armstrong property of conditional independence to show that the dependence relationships displayed by a DAG are inherently consistent, i.e. for every DAG D there exists some probability distribution P that embodies all the conditional independencies displayed in D and none other.
