Abstract—In this paper, we will describe the close connection between the now celebrated iterative turbo decoding algorithm of Berrou et al. and an algorithm that has been well known in the artificial intelligence community for a decade, but which is relatively unknown to information theorists: Pearl’s belief propagation algorithm. We shall see that if Pearl’s algorithm is applied to the “belief network ” of a parallel concatenation of two or more codes, the turbo decoding algorithm immediately results. Unfortunately, however, this belief diagram has loops, and Pearl only proved that his algorithm works when there are no loops, so an explanation of the excellent experimental performance of turbo decoding is still lacking. However, we shall also show that Pearl’s algorithm can be used to routinely derive previously known iterative, but suboptimal, decoding algorithms for a number of other error-control systems, including Gallager’s

Graphical models, suchasBayesian networks and Markov random fields, represent statistical dependencies of variables by a graph. The max-product "belief propagation" algorithm is a local-message passing algorithm on this graph that is known to converge to a unique fixed point when the graph is a tree. Furthermore, when the graph is a tree, the assignment based on the fixed-point yields the most probable a posteriori (MAP) values of the unobserved variables given the observed ones. Recently, good

Linear Programming (LP) relaxations have become powerful tools for finding the most probable (MAP) configuration in graphical models. These relaxations can be solved efficiently using message-passing algorithms such as belief propagation and, when the relaxation is tight, provably find the MAP configuration. The standard LP relaxation is not tight enough in many real-world problems, however, and this has lead to the use of higher order cluster-based LP relaxations. The computational cost increases exponentially with the size of the clusters and limits the number and type of clusters we can use. We propose to solve the cluster selection problem monotonically in the dual LP, iteratively selecting clusters with guaranteed improvement, and quickly re-solving with the added clusters by reusing the existing solution. Our dual message-passing algorithm finds the MAP configuration in protein sidechain placement, protein design, and stereo problems, in cases where the standard LP relaxation fails. 1

The problem of finding the most probable (MAP) configuration in graphical models comes up in a wide range of applications. In a general graphical model this problem is NP hard, but various approximate algorithms have been developed. Linear programming (LP) relaxations are a standard method in computer science for approximating combinatorial problems and have been used for finding the most probable assignment in small graphical models. However, applying this powerful method to real-world problems is extremely challenging due to the large numbers of variables and constraints in the linear program. Tree-Reweighted Belief Propagation is a promising recent algorithm for solving LP relaxations, but little is known about its running time on large problems. In this paper we compare tree-reweighted belief propagation (TRBP) and powerful generalpurpose LP solvers (CPLEX) on relaxations of real-world graphical models from the fields of computer vision and computational biology. We find that TRBP almost always finds the solution significantly faster than all the solvers in CPLEX and more importantly, TRBP can be applied to large scale problems for which the solvers in CPLEX cannot be applied. Using TRBP we can find the MAP configurations in a matter of minutes for a large range of real world problems. 1.

Finding the most probable assignment (MAP) in a general graphical model is known to be NP hard but good approximations have been attained with max-product belief propagation (BP) and its variants. In particular, it is known that using BP on a single-cycle graph or tree reweighted BP on an arbitrary graph will give the MAP solution if the beliefs have no ties. In this paper we extend the setting under which BP can be used to provably extract the MAP. We define Convex BP as BP algorithms based on a convex free energy approximation and show that this class includes ordinary BP with single-cycle, tree reweighted BP and many other BP variants. We show that when there are no ties, fixed-points of convex max-product BP will provably give the MAP solution. We also show that convex sum-product BP at sufficiently small temperatures can be used to solve linear programs that arise from relaxing the MAP problem. Finally, we derive a novel condition that allows us to derive the MAP solution even if some of the convex BP beliefs have ties. In experiments, we show that our theorems allow us to find the MAP in many real-world instances of graphical models where exact inference using junction-tree is impossible. 1

MAP is the problem of finding a most probable instantiation of a set of variables in a Bayesian network, given some evidence. MAP appears

MAP is the problem of finding a most probable instantiation of a set of variables given evidence. MAP has always been perceived to be significantly harder than the related problems of computing the probability of a variable instantiation (Pr), or the problem of computing the most probable explanation (MPE). This paper investigates the complexity of MAP in Bayesian networks. Specifically, we show that MAP is complete for NP PP and provide further negative complexity results for algorithms based on variable elimination. We also show that MAP remains hard even when MPE and Pr become easy. For example, we show that MAP is NP-complete when the networks are restricted to polytrees, and even then can not be effectively approximated. Given the difficulty of computing MAP exactly, and the difficulty of approximating MAP while providing useful guarantees on the resulting approximation, we investigate best effort approximations. We introduce a generic MAP approximation framework. We provide two instantiations of the framework; one for networks which are amenable to exact inference (Pr), and one for networks for which even exact inference is too hard. This allows MAP approximation on networks that are too complex to even exactly solve the easier problems, Pr and MPE. Experimental results indicate that using these approximation algorithms provides much better solutions than standard techniques, and provide accurate MAP estimates in many cases. 1.

As Bayesian networks are applied to more complex and realistic real-world applications, the development of more efficient inference algorithms working under real-time constraints is becoming more and more important. This paper presents a survey of various exact and approximate Bayesian network inference algorithms. In particular, previous research on real-time inference is reviewed. It provides a framework for understanding these algorithms and the relationships between them. Some important issues in real-time Bayesian networks inference are also discussed.

The growth in computer networks has created the potential to harness a great deal of computing power, but new models of distributed computing are often required. Cooperative distributed problem solving (CDPS) is the subfield of multi-agent systems (MAS) that is concerned with how large-scale problems can be solved using a network of intelligent agents working together. Building CDPS systems for real-world applications is still very difficult, however, in large part because the effects that domain and strategy characteristics have on the performance of CDPS systems are not well understood. This paper reports on the first results from a new simulation-based analysis system that has been created to study the performance of CDPS-based distributed sensor interpretation (DSI) and distributed diagnosis (DD). To demonstrate the kind of results that can be obtained, we have investigated how the monotonicity of a domain affects the performance of a potentially very efficient class of strategies for CDPS-based DSI/DD. Local solutions strategies attempt to limit communications among the agents by focusing on using the agents ’ local solutions to produce global solutions. While these strategies have been described as being important for effective CDPS-based DSI/DD, they need not perform well if a domain is nonmonotonic. We had previously suggested that the reason they have performed well in several research systems was that many DSI/DD domains are what we termed nearly monotonic. In this paper, we will provide quantitative

We analyze the computational complexity of causal relationships in Pearl's structural models, where we focus on causality between variables, event causality, and probabilistic causality. In particular, we analyze the complexity of the sophisticated notions of weak and actual causality by Halpern and Pearl. In the course of this, we also prove an open conjecture by Halpern and Pearl, and establish other semantic results. To our knowledge, no complexity aspects of causal relationships have been considered so far, and our results shed light on this issue. 1