Results 11  20
of
953
A Tutorial on Learning Bayesian Networks
 Communications of the ACM
, 1995
"... We examine a graphical representation of uncertain knowledge called a Bayesian network. The representation is easy to construct and interpret, yet has formal probabilistic semantics making it suitable for statistical manipulation. We show how we can use the representation to learn new knowledge by c ..."
Abstract

Cited by 330 (13 self)
 Add to MetaCart
We examine a graphical representation of uncertain knowledge called a Bayesian network. The representation is easy to construct and interpret, yet has formal probabilistic semantics making it suitable for statistical manipulation. We show how we can use the representation to learn new knowledge by combining domain knowledge with statistical data. 1 Introduction Many techniques for learning rely heavily on data. In contrast, the knowledge encoded in expert systems usually comes solely from an expert. In this paper, we examine a knowledge representation, called a Bayesian network, that lets us have the best of both worlds. Namely, the representation allows us to learn new knowledge by combining expert domain knowledge and statistical data. A Bayesian network is a graphical representation of uncertain knowledge that most people find easy to construct and interpret. In addition, the representation has formal probabilistic semantics, making it suitable for statistical manipulation (Howard,...
A Survey of Optimization by Building and Using Probabilistic Models
 COMPUTATIONAL OPTIMIZATION AND APPLICATIONS
, 1999
"... This paper summarizes the research on populationbased probabilistic search algorithms based on modeling promising solutions by estimating their probability distribution and using the constructed model to guide the further exploration of the search space. It settles the algorithms in the field of ge ..."
Abstract

Cited by 297 (88 self)
 Add to MetaCart
This paper summarizes the research on populationbased probabilistic search algorithms based on modeling promising solutions by estimating their probability distribution and using the constructed model to guide the further exploration of the search space. It settles the algorithms in the field of genetic and evolutionary computation where they have been originated. All methods are classified into a few classes according to the complexity of the class of models they use. Algorithms from each of these classes are briefly described and their strengths and weaknesses are discussed.
Hierarchical Bayesian Optimization Algorithm = Bayesian Optimization Algorithm + Niching + Local Structures
, 2001
"... The paper describes the hierarchical Bayesian optimization algorithm which combines the Bayesian optimization algorithm, local structures in Bayesian networks, and a powerful niching technique. The proposed algorithm is able to solve hierarchical traps and other difficult problems very efficiently. ..."
Abstract

Cited by 273 (69 self)
 Add to MetaCart
The paper describes the hierarchical Bayesian optimization algorithm which combines the Bayesian optimization algorithm, local structures in Bayesian networks, and a powerful niching technique. The proposed algorithm is able to solve hierarchical traps and other difficult problems very efficiently.
Learning Bayesian Networks With Local Structure
, 1996
"... . We examine a novel addition to the known methods for learning Bayesian networks from data that improves the quality of the learned networks. Our approach explicitly represents and learns the local structure in the conditional probability distributions (CPDs) that quantify these networks. This inc ..."
Abstract

Cited by 245 (13 self)
 Add to MetaCart
. We examine a novel addition to the known methods for learning Bayesian networks from data that improves the quality of the learned networks. Our approach explicitly represents and learns the local structure in the conditional probability distributions (CPDs) that quantify these networks. This increases the space of possible models, enabling the representation of CPDs with a variable number of parameters. The resulting learning procedure induces models that better emulate the interactions present in the data. We describe the theoretical foundations and practical aspects of learning local structures and provide an empirical evaluation of the proposed learning procedure. This evaluation indicates that learning curves characterizing this procedure converge faster, in the number of training instances, than those of the standard procedure, which ignores the local structure of the CPDs. Our results also show that networks learned with local structures tend to be more complex (in terms of a...
Learning the structure of dynamic probabilistic networks
, 1998
"... Dynamic probabilistic networks are a compact representation of complex stochastic processes. In this paper we examine how to learn the structure of a DPN from data. We extend structure scoring rules for standard probabilistic networks to the dynamic case, and show how to search for structure when so ..."
Abstract

Cited by 229 (13 self)
 Add to MetaCart
Dynamic probabilistic networks are a compact representation of complex stochastic processes. In this paper we examine how to learn the structure of a DPN from data. We extend structure scoring rules for standard probabilistic networks to the dynamic case, and show how to search for structure when some of the variables are hidden. Finally, we examine two applications where such a technology might be useful: predicting and classifying dynamic behaviors, and learning causal orderings in biological processes. We provide empirical results that demonstrate the applicability of our methods in both domains. 1
Being Bayesian about network structure
 Machine Learning
, 2000
"... Abstract. In many multivariate domains, we are interested in analyzing the dependency structure of the underlying distribution, e.g., whether two variables are in direct interaction. We can represent dependency structures using Bayesian network models. To analyze a given data set, Bayesian model sel ..."
Abstract

Cited by 218 (5 self)
 Add to MetaCart
Abstract. In many multivariate domains, we are interested in analyzing the dependency structure of the underlying distribution, e.g., whether two variables are in direct interaction. We can represent dependency structures using Bayesian network models. To analyze a given data set, Bayesian model selection attempts to find the most likely (MAP) model, and uses its structure to answer these questions. However, when the amount of available data is modest, there might be many models that have nonnegligible posterior. Thus, we want compute the Bayesian posterior of a feature, i.e., the total posterior probability of all models that contain it. In this paper, we propose a new approach for this task. We first show how to efficiently compute a sum over the exponential number of networks that are consistent with a fixed order over network variables. This allows us to compute, for a given order, both the marginal probability of the data and the posterior of a feature. We then use this result as the basis for an algorithm that approximates the Bayesian posterior of a feature. Our approach uses a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, but over orders rather than over network structures. The space of orders is smaller and more regular than the space of structures, and has much a smoother posterior “landscape”. We present empirical results on synthetic and reallife datasets that compare our approach to full model averaging (when possible), to MCMC over network structures, and to a nonBayesian bootstrap approach.
Correlating Instrumentation Data to System States: A Building Block for Automated Diagnosis and Control
 In OSDI
, 2004
"... building block for automated diagnosis and control ..."
Abstract

Cited by 208 (17 self)
 Add to MetaCart
building block for automated diagnosis and control
On bias, variance, 0/1loss, and the curseofdimensionality
 Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery
, 1997
"... Abstract. The classification problem is considered in which an output variable y assumes discrete values with respective probabilities that depend upon the simultaneous values of a set of input variables x ={x1,...,xn}.At issue is how error in the estimates of these probabilities affects classificat ..."
Abstract

Cited by 207 (1 self)
 Add to MetaCart
Abstract. The classification problem is considered in which an output variable y assumes discrete values with respective probabilities that depend upon the simultaneous values of a set of input variables x ={x1,...,xn}.At issue is how error in the estimates of these probabilities affects classification error when the estimates are used in a classification rule. These effects are seen to be somewhat counter intuitive in both their strength and nature. In particular the bias and variance components of the estimation error combine to influence classification in a very different way than with squared error on the probabilities themselves. Certain types of (very high) bias can be canceled by low variance to produce accurate classification. This can dramatically mitigate the effect of the bias associated with some simple estimators like “naive ” Bayes, and the bias induced by the curseofdimensionality on nearestneighbor procedures. This helps explain why such simple methods are often competitive with and sometimes superior to more sophisticated ones for classification, and why “bagging/aggregating ” classifiers can often improve accuracy. These results also suggest simple modifications to these procedures that can (sometimes dramatically) further improve their classification performance.
Learning Bayesian network structure from massive datasets: The “sparse candidate” algorithm
, 1999
"... Learning Bayesian networks is often cast as an optimization problem, where the computational task is to find a structure that maximizes a statistically motivated score. By and large, existing learning tools address this optimization problem using standard heuristic search techniques. Since the searc ..."
Abstract

Cited by 189 (9 self)
 Add to MetaCart
Learning Bayesian networks is often cast as an optimization problem, where the computational task is to find a structure that maximizes a statistically motivated score. By and large, existing learning tools address this optimization problem using standard heuristic search techniques. Since the search space is extremely large, such search procedures can spend most of the time examining candidates that are extremely unreasonable. This problem becomes critical when we deal with data sets that are large either in the number of instances, or the number of attributes. In this paper, we introduce an algorithm that achieves faster learning by restricting the search space. This iterative algorithm restricts the parents of each variable to belong to a small subset of candidates. We then search for a network that satisfies these constraints. The learned network is then used for selecting better candidates for the next iteration. We evaluate this algorithm both on synthetic and reallife data. Our results show that it is significantly faster than alternative search procedures without loss of quality in the learned structures. 1
The Bayes Net Toolbox for MATLAB
 Computing Science and Statistics
, 2001
"... The Bayes Net Toolbox (BNT) is an opensource Matlab package for directed graphical models. BNT supports many kinds of nodes (probability distributions), exact and approximate inference, parameter and structure learning, and static and dynamic models. BNT is widely used in teaching and research: the ..."
Abstract

Cited by 186 (1 self)
 Add to MetaCart
The Bayes Net Toolbox (BNT) is an opensource Matlab package for directed graphical models. BNT supports many kinds of nodes (probability distributions), exact and approximate inference, parameter and structure learning, and static and dynamic models. BNT is widely used in teaching and research: the web page has received over 28,000 hits since May 2000. In this paper, we discuss a broad spectrum of issues related to graphical models (directed and undirected), and describe, at a highlevel, how BNT was designed to cope with them all. We also compare BNT to other software packages for graphical models, and to the nascent OpenBayes effort.