Electric power transmission systems are a key infrastructure and blackouts of these systems have major direct and indirect consequences on the economy and national security. Analysis of North American Electrical Reliability Council blackout data suggests the existence of blackout size distributions with power tails. This is an indication that blackout dynamics behave as a complex dynamical system. Here, we investigate how these complex system dynamics impact the assessment and mitigation of blackout risk. The mitigation of failures in complex systems needs to be approached with care. The mitigation efforts can move the system to a new dynamic equilibrium while remaining near criticality and preserving the power tails. Thus, while the absolute frequency of disruptions of all sizes may be reduced, the underlying forces can still cause the relative frequency of large disruptions to small disruptions to remain the same. Moreover, in some cases, efforts to mitigate small disruptions can even increase the frequency of large disruptions. This occurs because the large and small disruptions are not independent but are strongly coupled by the dynamics. 1.

Abstract—Information dissemination in disaster scenarios requires timely and energy-efficient communication in intermittently connected networks. When the existing infrastructure is damaged or overloaded, we suggest the use of a manycast algorithm that runs over a wireless mobile ad hoc network, and overcomes partitions using a store-and-forward mechanism. This paper presents a random walk gossip protocol that uses an efficient data structure to keep track of already informed nodes with minimal signalling. Avoiding unnecessary transmissions also makes it less prone to overloads. Experimental evaluation shows higher delivery ratio, lower latency, and lower overhead compared to a recently published algorithm. I.

Abstract — Modern society depends on the operations of civil infrastructure systems, such as transportation, energy, telecommunications and water. Clearly, disruption of any of these systems would present a significant detriment to daily living. However, these systems have become so interconnected, one relying on another, that disruption of one may lead to disruptions in all. The focus of this research is on developing techniques which can be used to respond to events that have the capability to impact interdependent infrastructure systems. As discussed in the paper, infrastructure interdependencies occur when, due to either geographical proximity or shared operations, an impact on one infrastructure system affects one or more other infrastructure systems. The approach is to model the salient elements of these systems and provide decision makers with a means to manipulate the set of models, i.e. a decision support system. 1

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Summary. Disasters are characterised by their devastating effect on human lives and the society’s ability to function. Unfortunately, rescue operations and the possibility to re-establish a working society after such events is often hampered by the lack of functioning communication infrastructures. This paper 3 describes the challenges ahead in creating new communication networks to support post-disaster operations, and sets them in the context of the current issues in protection of critical infrastructures. The analysis reveals that while there are some common concerns there are also fundamental differences. The paper serves as an overview of some promising research directions and pointers to existing works in these areas. 1

Abstract: This study investigates impacts of the 2001 World Trade Center attack on critical infrastructure systems in the New York City metropolitan area. Of particular interest are the physical or logical connections—also known as interdependencies—among these systems, and the impacts of the attack on them. This study extends knowledge about the behavior of complex and interdependent infrastructures systems following a significant disruption. The results depict impact to all infrastructure systems as a result of the attack, with disruptions reported throughout the 3 month study period. Approximately 20 % of these disruptions involved interdependencies, and a majority of infrastructure systems were involved in at least one interdependency. The results therefore suggest that interdependence is a pervasive condition of New York City’s critical infrastructures. Accordingly, approaches to planning for and managing infrastructure-related disruptions, particularly those involving interdependency, are discussed.

Abstract. The protection of critical infrastructures, such as electrical power grids, has become a primary concern of many nation states in recent years. Critical infrastructures involve multi-dimensional, highly complex collections of technologies, processes, and people, and as such, are vulnerable to potentially catastrophic failures on many levels. Moreover, cross-infrastructure dependencies can give rise to cascading and escalating failures across multiple infrastructures. In order to address the problem of critical infrastructure protection, our research is developing innovative approaches to modeling critical infrastructures, with emphasis on analyzing the ramifications of crossinfrastructure dependencies. This paper presents an initial overview of the research and of the modeling environment under development. 1

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Abstract: Integral to effective critical infrastructure protection planning is the assessment of infrastructure vulnerabilities, which aims to provide planners with the insights into potential disruptions. For such a task, a set of scenarios is widely regarded in both academic and professional communities to be one of the best tools. Unfortunately, while scenarios are used extensively, they often are not used to their full potential, as scenario composition frequently occurs using a non-systematic “back-of-envelope ” approach that relies solely on ease-based heuristics. As a consequence, planners are often subject to “blind spots ” that minimize, if not exacerbate, the effectiveness of Critical Infrastructure Protection Plans. While recognizing that proper tools and technologies can play an important role in the revelation of blind spots, in this paper we focus specifically on this need for proper methodologies and frameworks to facilitate effective scenario set composition. In particular, we present our methodology for scenario set composition, we examine the role of ontological and geospatial analyses during the construction of scenario sets, and present our critical infrastructure interdependency framework to guide the planning process.

Section 1: Filtering and Prioritizing SCADA Risk Scenarios...............................................4 Stage 1: Develop a Hierarchical Holographic Model (HHM)................................................4