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Existing strategies for econometric analysis related to macroeconomics are subject to a number of serious objections, some recently formulated, some old. These objections are summarized in this paper, and it is argued that taken together they make it unlikely that macroeconomic models are in fact over identified, as the existing statistical theory usually assumes. The implications of this conclusion are explored, and an example of econometric work in a non-standard style, taking account of the objections to the standard style, is presented.

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Abstract. In this paper we introduce and analyze a stochastic particle method for the McKean-Vlasov and the Burgers equation; the construction and error analysis are based upon the theory of the propagation of chaos for interacting particle systems. Our objective is three-fold. First, we consider a McKean-Vlasov equation in [0,T]×R with sufficiently smooth kernels, and the PDEs giving the distribution function and the density of the measure µt, the solution to the McKean-Vlasov equation. The simulation of the stochastic system with N particles provides a discrete measure which approximates µk∆t for each time k∆t (where ∆t is a discretization step of the time interval [0,T]). An integration (resp. smoothing) of this discrete measure provides approximations of the distribution function (resp. density) of µk∆t. We show that the convergence rate is O 1 / √ N + √) ∆t for the approximation in L1 (Ω × R) ofthecumula-tive distribution function at time T, and of order O ε2 + 1

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This paper studies the choice between centralization and decentralization of fiscal policy in a political economy setting. With centralization, regional delegates vote over agendas comprising sets of region-specific projects. The outcome is inefficient because the choice of projects is insufficiently sensitive to within-region benefits. The number of projects funded may be non-monotonic in the strength of project externalities. The efficiency gains from decentralization, and the performance of “constitutional rules” (such as majority voting) which may be used to choose between decentralization and centralization, are then discussed in this framework. Weaker externalities and more heterogeneity between regions need not increase the efficiency gain from decentralization.