The Bayesian framework is a well-studied and successful framework for inductive reasoning, which includes hypothesis testing and confirmation, parameter estimation, sequence prediction, classification, and regression. But standard statistical guidelines for choosing the model class and prior are not always available or can fail, in particular in complex situations. Solomonoff completed the Bayesian framework by providing a rigorous, unique, formal, and universal choice for the model class and the prior. I discuss in breadth how and in which sense universal (non-i.i.d.) sequence prediction solves various (philosophical) problems of traditional Bayesian sequence prediction. I show that Solomonoff’s model possesses many desirable properties: Strong total and future bounds, and weak instantaneous bounds, and in contrast to most classical continuous prior densities has no zero p(oste)rior problem, i.e. can confirm universal hypotheses, is reparametrization and regrouping invariant, and avoids the old-evidence and updating problem. It even performs well

www.hutter1.net Specialized intelligent systems can be found everywhere: finger print, handwriting, speech, and face recognition, spam filtering, chess and other game programs, robots, et al. This decade the first presumably complete mathematical theory of artificial intelligence based on universal induction-predictiondecision-action has been proposed. This information-theoretic approach solidifies the foundations of inductive inference and artificial intelligence. Getting the foundations right usually marks a significant progress and maturing of a field. The theory provides a gold standard and guidance for researchers working on intelligent algorithms. The roots of universal induction have been laid exactly half-a-century ago and the roots of universal intelligence exactly one decade ago. So it is timely to take stock of what has been achieved and what remains to be done. Since there are already good recent surveys, I describe the state-of-the-art only in passing and refer the reader to the literature.

We raise the question of approximating the compressibility of a string with respect to a fixed compression scheme, in sublinear time. We study this question in detail for two popular lossless compression schemes: run-length encoding (RLE) and Lempel-Ziv (LZ), and present sublinear algorithms for approximating compressibility with respect to both schemes. We also give several lower bounds that show that our algorithms for both schemes cannot be improved significantly. Our investigation of LZ yields results whose interest goes beyond the initial questions we set out to study. In particular, we prove combinatorial structural lemmas that relate the compressibility of a string with respect to Lempel-Ziv to the number of distinct short substrings contained in it. In addition, we show that approximating the compressibility with respect to LZ is related to approximating the support size of a distribution. I.