Abstract: In recent years, several countries have carried out large-scale technology foresight exercises. While these have been extensively discussed in the literature, less attention has been given to how foresight objectives are served through consultative processes which are not necessarily designated as ‘foresight ’ but nevertheless seek to provide direction to publicly supported research and technology development (RTD) efforts. Here, we address this question by examining Finnish RTD programs in electronics and telecommunications where foresight processes have been enacted to build up capabilities for strategic flexibility and, more specifically, for the ability to change the direction of RTD efforts during the program. We also argue that these processes may be crucial in conditions of rapid technological change.

Abstract. R&D portfolio management is a critical task with which the majority of the large companies are confronted. Despite its wide implementation in companies there are no widely accepted and used methods to perform this task. Each company uses its own mix of various qualitative and quantitative methods to achieve its goal. The objective of this thesis is to explore the adequacy and the design issues to use a prediction market for supporting the R&D portfolio management process. We chose prediction markets to perform this task since their aggregation mechanisms and information discovery process seems to solve most of the current issues of the R&D portfolio management process.

R&D portfolio management is a critical task with which the majority of the large companies are confronted. Despite its wide implementation in companies, there are no widely accepted and used methods to perform this task. Each company uses its own mix of various qualitative and quantitative methods to achieve its goal. The objective of this thesis is to explore the adequacy to use a prediction market for supporting the R&D portfolio management process. We chose prediction markets to perform this task since their aggregation mechanisms and information discovery process seems to solve most of the current issues of the R&D portfolio management process. PREDICTION MARKETS AS AN INNOVATIVE WAY TO MANAGE R&D PORTFOLIOS 1