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11
Poverty Traps
 Prepared for the Handbook of Economic Growth
"... In the problem of economic development, a phrase that crops up frequently is ‘the vicious circle of poverty.’ It is generally treated as something obvious, too obvious to be worth examining. I hope I may be forgiven if I begin by taking a look at this obvious concept. (R. Nurkse, 1953) ..."
Abstract

Cited by 57 (3 self)
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In the problem of economic development, a phrase that crops up frequently is ‘the vicious circle of poverty.’ It is generally treated as something obvious, too obvious to be worth examining. I hope I may be forgiven if I begin by taking a look at this obvious concept. (R. Nurkse, 1953)
2003): “A Forward Projection of the CrossCountry Income Distribution,”Discussion Paper No
 Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University
"... This paper proposes and implements a method to predict the evolution of the crosscountry income distribution using a stochastic parameterization of the Azariadis– Drazen (1990) nonconvex growth model. We estimate the dynamic structure of that model from data in the Penn World Tables, and define indu ..."
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Cited by 8 (1 self)
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This paper proposes and implements a method to predict the evolution of the crosscountry income distribution using a stochastic parameterization of the Azariadis– Drazen (1990) nonconvex growth model. We estimate the dynamic structure of that model from data in the Penn World Tables, and define inductively all future distributions as a normconvergent sequence in the function space L1. Elements of the sequence are calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. Our results suggest that nonlinearities in the growth process are responsible for the emerging bimodality in the distribution of income, but that bimodality will eventually peak and then decline. In the long run we predict convergence. 1 1
Mathematics For Simulation
"... I survey several mathematical techniques and results that are useful in the context of stochastic simulation. The concepts are introduced through the study of a simple model of ambulance operation to ensure clarity, concreteness and cohesion. ..."
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Cited by 6 (2 self)
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I survey several mathematical techniques and results that are useful in the context of stochastic simulation. The concepts are introduced through the study of a simple model of ambulance operation to ensure clarity, concreteness and cohesion.
2004): “Some stability results for Markovian economic semigroups
 International Journal of Economic Theory
"... Abstract. The paper studies existence, uniqueness and stability of stationary equilibrium distributions in a class of stochastic dynamic models common to economic analysis. The stability conditions provided are suitable for treating multisector models and nonlinear time series models with unbounded ..."
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Cited by 1 (1 self)
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Abstract. The paper studies existence, uniqueness and stability of stationary equilibrium distributions in a class of stochastic dynamic models common to economic analysis. The stability conditions provided are suitable for treating multisector models and nonlinear time series models with unbounded state. 1.
Computing Densities and Expectations in Stochastic Recursive Economies: Generalized LookAhead Techniques
, 2009
"... We propose a generalized lookahead estimator for computing densities and expectations in economic models. We provide conditions under which the estimator converges globally with probability one, and exhibit the asymptotic distribution of the error. Our estimator is more efficient than other Monte C ..."
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We propose a generalized lookahead estimator for computing densities and expectations in economic models. We provide conditions under which the estimator converges globally with probability one, and exhibit the asymptotic distribution of the error. Our estimator is more efficient than other Monte Carlo based approaches. Numerical experiments indicate that the estimator can provide large increases in accuracy and speed relative to traditional methods. Particular applications we consider are the stochastic growth model and an income fluctuation problem.
A Forward Projection of the CrossCountry Bivand
"... This paper proposes and implements a method to predict the evolution of the crosscountry income distribution using a stochastic parameterization of the Azariadis Drazen (1990) nonconvex growth model. We estimate the dynamic structure of that model from data in the Penn World Tables, and define ind ..."
Abstract
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This paper proposes and implements a method to predict the evolution of the crosscountry income distribution using a stochastic parameterization of the Azariadis Drazen (1990) nonconvex growth model. We estimate the dynamic structure of that model from data in the Penn World Tables, and define inductively all future distributions as a sequence in L 1 . Elements of the sequence are calculated using Monte Carlo simulation. Our results suggest that nonlinearities in the growth process are responsible for the emerging bimodality in the distribution of income, but that bimodality will eventually peak and then decline. In the long run we predict convergence.
Improved Monte Carlo Methods for StateSpace Models
, 2007
"... The views expressed herein are entirely those of the author and do not represent the views, policy or understanding of any other person or official body. Copyright c ○ 2007 Mark Briers Declaration This dissertation is submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. This dissertation is the result ..."
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The views expressed herein are entirely those of the author and do not represent the views, policy or understanding of any other person or official body. Copyright c ○ 2007 Mark Briers Declaration This dissertation is submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. This dissertation is the result of my own work and includes nothing which is the outcome of work done in collaboration except where specifically indicated in the text. This dissertation contains less than limits of 150 figures and 65,000 words; there are 32 figures and approximately 42,000 words. This thesis is not substantially the same as any that I have submitted for a degree or diploma or other qualification at any other University. Furthermore, no part of this thesis has already been submitted or is being concurrently submitted for any such degree, diploma or other qualification.
†University of Tokyo
, 2009
"... We propose a generalized lookahead estimator for computing densities and expectations in economic models. We provide conditions under which the estimator converges globally with probability one, and exhibit the asymptotic distribution of the error. Our estimator is more efficient than other Monte ..."
Abstract
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We propose a generalized lookahead estimator for computing densities and expectations in economic models. We provide conditions under which the estimator converges globally with probability one, and exhibit the asymptotic distribution of the error. Our estimator is more efficient than other Monte Carlo based approaches. Numerical experiments indicate that the estimator can provide large increases in accuracy and speed relative to traditional methods. Particular applications we consider are the stochastic growth model and an income fluctuation problem.
Computing Densities: A Conditional Monte
, 2009
"... order). This financial support enables us to issue CARF Working Papers. ..."
cesses. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C15,
"... We study a Monte Carlo algorithm for computing marginal and stationary densities of Markov models, establishing global asymptotic normality and OP(n−1/2) convergence. From these results we derive ..."
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We study a Monte Carlo algorithm for computing marginal and stationary densities of Markov models, establishing global asymptotic normality and OP(n−1/2) convergence. From these results we derive