SUMMARY. Cervical mucus hydration increases during the fertile interval prior to ovulation. Since sperm can only penetrate mucus having a high water content, cervical secretions provide a reliable marker of the fertile days of the menstrual cycle. This article develops a Bayesian approach for modeling of daily observations of cervical mucus, and applies the approach to assess heterogeneity among women and cycles from a given woman with respect to the increase in mucus hydration during the fertile interval. The proposed model relates the mucus observations to an underlying normal mucus hydration score, which varies relative to a peak hydration day. Uncertainty in the timing of the peak is accounted for, and a novel weighted mixture model is used to characterize heterogeneity in distinct features of the underlying mean function. Prior information on the mucus hydration trajectory is incorporated, and a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach is developed. Based on data from a study of daily fecundability, there appears to be substantial heterogeneity among women in detected preovulatory increases in mucus hydration but only minimal differences among cycles from a given woman.

Summary. We discuss functional clustering procedures for nested designs, where multiple curves are collected for each subject in the study. We start by considering the application of standard functional clustering tools to this problem, which leads to groupings based on the average profile for each subject. After discussing some of the shortcomings of this approach, we present a mixture model based on a generalization of the nested Dirichlet process that clusters subjects based on the distribution of their curves. By using mixtures of generalized Dirichlet processes, the model induces a much more flexible prior on the partition structure than other popular model-based clustering methods, allowing for different rates of introduction of new clusters as the number of observations increases. The methods are illustrated using hormone profiles from multiple menstrual cycles collected for women in the Early Pregnancy Study.

Abstract: Previous research has shown that individuals who are reminded of their death exhibited a greater desire for offspring than those who were not reminded of their death. The present research investigated whether being reminded of mortality affects mate selection behaviors, such as facial preference judgments. Prior research has shown that women prefer more masculine faces when they are at the high versus low fertility phase of their menstrual cycles. We report an experiment in which women were tested either at their high or fertility phase. They were randomly assigned to either a mortality salience (MS) or control condition and then asked to judge faces ranging from extreme masculine to extreme feminine. The results showed that women’s choice of the attractive male face was determined by an interaction between fertility phase and condition. In control conditions, high fertility phase women preferred a significantly more masculine face than women who were in a lower fertility phase of their menstrual cycles. In MS conditions, high fertility phase women preferred a significantly less masculine (i.e., more average) face than women who were in a low fertility phase. The results indicate that biological processes, such as fertility phase, involved in mate selection are sensitive to current environmental factors, such as death reminders. This sensitivity may serve as an adaptive compromise when choosing a mate in potentially adverse environmental conditions.