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154
Policy Recognition in the Abstract Hidden Markov Model
 Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research
, 2002
"... In this paper, we present a method for recognising an agent's behaviour in dynamic, noisy, uncertain domains, and across multiple levels of abstraction. We term this problem online plan recognition under uncertainty and view it generally as probabilistic inference on the stochastic process rep ..."
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Cited by 129 (17 self)
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In this paper, we present a method for recognising an agent's behaviour in dynamic, noisy, uncertain domains, and across multiple levels of abstraction. We term this problem online plan recognition under uncertainty and view it generally as probabilistic inference on the stochastic process representing the execution of the agent's plan. Our contributions in this paper are twofold. In terms of probabilistic inference, we introduce the Abstract Hidden Markov Model (AHMM), a novel type of stochastic processes, provide its dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) structure and analyse the properties of this network. We then describe an application of the RaoBlackwellised Particle Filter to the AHMM which allows us to construct an ecient, hybrid inference method for this model. In terms of plan recognition, we propose a novel plan recognition framework based on the AHMM as the plan execution model. The RaoBlackwellised hybrid inference for AHMM can take advantage of the independence properties inherent in a model of plan execution, leading to an algorithm for online probabilistic plan recognition that scales well with the number of levels in the plan hierarchy. This illustrates that while stochastic models for plan execution can be complex, they exhibit special structures which, if exploited, can lead to efficient plan recognition algorithms. We demonstrate the usefulness of the AHMM framework via a behaviour recognition system in a complex spatial environment using distributed video surveillance data.
A General Framework for Adaptive Processing of Data Structures
 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON NEURAL NETWORKS
, 1998
"... A structured organization of information is typically required by symbolic processing. On the other hand, most connectionist models assume that data are organized according to relatively poor structures, like arrays or sequences. The framework described in this paper is an attempt to unify adaptive ..."
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Cited by 127 (50 self)
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A structured organization of information is typically required by symbolic processing. On the other hand, most connectionist models assume that data are organized according to relatively poor structures, like arrays or sequences. The framework described in this paper is an attempt to unify adaptive models like artificial neural nets and belief nets for the problem of processing structured information. In particular, relations between data variables are expressed by directed acyclic graphs, where both numerical and categorical values coexist. The general framework proposed in this paper can be regarded as an extension of both recurrent neural networks and hidden Markov models to the case of acyclic graphs. In particular we study the supervised learning problem as the problem of learning transductions from an input structured space to an output structured space, where transductions are assumed to admit a recursive hidden statespace representation. We introduce a graphical formalism for r...
Exploiting the Past and the Future in Protein Secondary Structure Prediction
, 1999
"... Motivation: Predicting the secondary structure of a protein (alphahelix, betasheet, coil) is an important step towards elucidating its three dimensional structure, as well as its function. Presently, the best predictors are based on machine learning approaches, in particular neural network archite ..."
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Cited by 125 (23 self)
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Motivation: Predicting the secondary structure of a protein (alphahelix, betasheet, coil) is an important step towards elucidating its three dimensional structure, as well as its function. Presently, the best predictors are based on machine learning approaches, in particular neural network architectures with a fixed, and relatively short, input window of amino acids, centered at the prediction site. Although a fixed small window avoids overfitting problems, it does not permit to capture variable longranged information. Results: We introduce a family of novel architectures which can learn to make predictions based on variable ranges of dependencies. These architectures extend recurrent neural networks, introducing noncausal bidirectional dynamics to capture both upstream and downstream information. The prediction algorithm is completed by the use of mixtures of estimators that leverage evolutionary information, expressed in terms of multiple alignments, both at the input and output levels. While our system currently achieves an overall performance close to 76% correct predictionat least comparable to the best existing systemsthe main emphasis here is on the development of new algorithmic ideas. Availability: The executable program for predicting protein secondary structure is available from the authors free of charge. Contact: pfbaldi@ics.uci.edu, gpollast@ics.uci.edu, brunak@cbs.dtu.dk, paolo@dsi.unifi.it. 1
MachineLearning Research  Four Current Directions
"... Machine Learning research has been making great progress in many directions. This article summarizes four of these directions and discusses some current open problems. The four directions are (a) improving classification accuracy by learning ensembles of classifiers, (b) methods for scaling up super ..."
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Cited by 125 (1 self)
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Machine Learning research has been making great progress in many directions. This article summarizes four of these directions and discusses some current open problems. The four directions are (a) improving classification accuracy by learning ensembles of classifiers, (b) methods for scaling up supervised learning algorithms, (c) reinforcement learning, and (d) learning complex stochastic models.
A differential approach to inference in Bayesian networks
 Journal of the ACM
, 2000
"... We present a new approach to inference in Bayesian networks which is based on representing the network using a polynomial and then retrieving answers to probabilistic queries by evaluating and differentiating the polynomial. The network polynomial itself is exponential in size, but we show how it ca ..."
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Cited by 118 (18 self)
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We present a new approach to inference in Bayesian networks which is based on representing the network using a polynomial and then retrieving answers to probabilistic queries by evaluating and differentiating the polynomial. The network polynomial itself is exponential in size, but we show how it can be computed efficiently using an arithmetic circuit that can be evaluated and differentiated in time and space linear in the circuit size. The proposed framework for inference subsumes one of the most influential methods for inference in Bayesian networks, known as the tree–clustering or jointree method, which provides a deeper understanding of this classical method and lifts its desirable characteristics to a much more general setting. We discuss some theoretical and practical implications of this subsumption. 1.
Control of Selective Perception Using Bayes Nets and Decision Theory
, 1993
"... A selective vision system sequentially collects evidence to support a specified hypothesis about a scene, as long as the additional evidence is worth the effort of obtaining it. Efficiency comes from processing the scene only where necessary, to the level of detail necessary, and with only the neces ..."
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Cited by 107 (1 self)
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A selective vision system sequentially collects evidence to support a specified hypothesis about a scene, as long as the additional evidence is worth the effort of obtaining it. Efficiency comes from processing the scene only where necessary, to the level of detail necessary, and with only the necessary operators. Knowledge representation and sequential decisionmaking are central issues for selective vision, which takes advantage of prior knowledge of a domain's abstract and geometrical structure and models for the expected performance and cost of visual operators. The TEA1 selective vision system uses Bayes nets for representation and benefitcost analysis for control of visual and nonvisual actions. It is the highlevel control for an active vision system, enabling purposive behavior, the use of qualitative vision modules and a pointable multiresolution sensor. TEA1 demonstrates that Bayes nets and decision theoretic techniques provide a general, reusable framework for constructi...
A Bayesian Approach to Causal Discovery
, 1997
"... We examine the Bayesian approach to the discovery of directed acyclic causal models and compare it to the constraintbased approach. Both approaches rely on the Causal Markov assumption, but the two differ significantly in theory and practice. An important difference between the approaches is that t ..."
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Cited by 85 (1 self)
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We examine the Bayesian approach to the discovery of directed acyclic causal models and compare it to the constraintbased approach. Both approaches rely on the Causal Markov assumption, but the two differ significantly in theory and practice. An important difference between the approaches is that the constraintbased approach uses categorical information about conditionalindependence constraints in the domain, whereas the Bayesian approach weighs the degree to which such constraints hold. As a result, the Bayesian approach has three distinct advantages over its constraintbased counterpart. One, conclusions derived from the Bayesian approach are not susceptible to incorrect categorical decisions about independence facts that can occur with data sets of finite size. Two, using the Bayesian approach, finer distinctions among model structuresboth quantitative and qualitativecan be made. Three, information from several models can be combined to make better inferences and to better ...
A general algorithm for approximate inference and its applciation to hybrid bayes nets
 In Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI'98
, 1998
"... The clique tree algorithm is the standard method for doing inference in Bayesian networks. It works by manipulating clique potentials — distributions over the variables in a clique. While this approach works well for many networks, it is limited by the need to maintain an exact representation of the ..."
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Cited by 79 (2 self)
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The clique tree algorithm is the standard method for doing inference in Bayesian networks. It works by manipulating clique potentials — distributions over the variables in a clique. While this approach works well for many networks, it is limited by the need to maintain an exact representation of the clique potentials. This paper presents a new unified approach that combines approximate inference and the clique tree algorithm, thereby circumventing this limitation. Many known approximate inference algorithms can be viewed as instances of this approach. The algorithm essentially does clique tree propagation, using approximate inference to estimate the densities in each clique. In many settings, the computation of the approximate clique potential can be done easily using statistical importance sampling. Iterations are used to gradually improve the quality of the estimation. 1
A new look at causal independence
 In Proc. of the Tenth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Ingelligence
, 1994
"... Heckerman (1993) defined causal independence in terms of a set of temporal conditional independence statements. These statements formalized certain types of causal interaction where (1) the effect is independent of the order that causes are introduced and (2) the impact of a single cause on the effe ..."
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Cited by 71 (4 self)
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Heckerman (1993) defined causal independence in terms of a set of temporal conditional independence statements. These statements formalized certain types of causal interaction where (1) the effect is independent of the order that causes are introduced and (2) the impact of a single cause on the effect does not depend on what other causes have previously been applied. In this paper, we introduce an equivalent atemporal characterization of causal independence based on a functional representation of the relationship between causes and the effect. In this representation, the interaction between causes and effect can be written as a nested decomposition of functions. Causal independence can be exploited by representing this decomposition in the belief network, resulting in representations that are more efficient for inference than general causal models. We present empirical results showing the benefits of a causalindependence representation for beliefnetwork inference. 1
Causal independence for probability assessment and inference using Bayesian networks
 IEEE Trans. on Systems, Man and Cybernetics
, 1994
"... ABayesian network is a probabilistic representation for uncertain relationships, which has proven to be useful for modeling realworld problems. When there are many potential causes of a given e ect, however, both probability assessment and inference using a Bayesian network can be di cult. In this ..."
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Cited by 67 (3 self)
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ABayesian network is a probabilistic representation for uncertain relationships, which has proven to be useful for modeling realworld problems. When there are many potential causes of a given e ect, however, both probability assessment and inference using a Bayesian network can be di cult. In this paper, we describe causal independence, a collection of conditional independence assertions and functional relationships that are often appropriate to apply to the representation of the uncertain interactions between causes and e ect. We show how the use of causal independence in a Bayesian network can greatly simplify probability assessment aswell as probabilistic inference. 1