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157
Policy Recognition in the Abstract Hidden Markov Model
 Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research
, 2002
"... In this paper, we present a method for recognising an agent's behaviour in dynamic, noisy, uncertain domains, and across multiple levels of abstraction. We term this problem online plan recognition under uncertainty and view it generally as probabilistic inference on the stochastic process rep ..."
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Cited by 148 (22 self)
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In this paper, we present a method for recognising an agent's behaviour in dynamic, noisy, uncertain domains, and across multiple levels of abstraction. We term this problem online plan recognition under uncertainty and view it generally as probabilistic inference on the stochastic process representing the execution of the agent's plan. Our contributions in this paper are twofold. In terms of probabilistic inference, we introduce the Abstract Hidden Markov Model (AHMM), a novel type of stochastic processes, provide its dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) structure and analyse the properties of this network. We then describe an application of the RaoBlackwellised Particle Filter to the AHMM which allows us to construct an ecient, hybrid inference method for this model. In terms of plan recognition, we propose a novel plan recognition framework based on the AHMM as the plan execution model. The RaoBlackwellised hybrid inference for AHMM can take advantage of the independence properties inherent in a model of plan execution, leading to an algorithm for online probabilistic plan recognition that scales well with the number of levels in the plan hierarchy. This illustrates that while stochastic models for plan execution can be complex, they exhibit special structures which, if exploited, can lead to efficient plan recognition algorithms. We demonstrate the usefulness of the AHMM framework via a behaviour recognition system in a complex spatial environment using distributed video surveillance data.
A General Framework for Adaptive Processing of Data Structures
 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON NEURAL NETWORKS
, 1998
"... A structured organization of information is typically required by symbolic processing. On the other hand, most connectionist models assume that data are organized according to relatively poor structures, like arrays or sequences. The framework described in this paper is an attempt to unify adaptive ..."
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Cited by 143 (57 self)
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A structured organization of information is typically required by symbolic processing. On the other hand, most connectionist models assume that data are organized according to relatively poor structures, like arrays or sequences. The framework described in this paper is an attempt to unify adaptive models like artificial neural nets and belief nets for the problem of processing structured information. In particular, relations between data variables are expressed by directed acyclic graphs, where both numerical and categorical values coexist. The general framework proposed in this paper can be regarded as an extension of both recurrent neural networks and hidden Markov models to the case of acyclic graphs. In particular we study the supervised learning problem as the problem of learning transductions from an input structured space to an output structured space, where transductions are assumed to admit a recursive hidden statespace representation. We introduce a graphical formalism for r...
MachineLearning Research  Four Current Directions
"... Machine Learning research has been making great progress in many directions. This article summarizes four of these directions and discusses some current open problems. The four directions are (a) improving classification accuracy by learning ensembles of classifiers, (b) methods for scaling up super ..."
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Cited by 136 (1 self)
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Machine Learning research has been making great progress in many directions. This article summarizes four of these directions and discusses some current open problems. The four directions are (a) improving classification accuracy by learning ensembles of classifiers, (b) methods for scaling up supervised learning algorithms, (c) reinforcement learning, and (d) learning complex stochastic models.
A differential approach to inference in Bayesian networks
 Journal of the ACM
, 2000
"... We present a new approach to inference in Bayesian networks which is based on representing the network using a polynomial and then retrieving answers to probabilistic queries by evaluating and differentiating the polynomial. The network polynomial itself is exponential in size, but we show how it ca ..."
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Cited by 135 (20 self)
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We present a new approach to inference in Bayesian networks which is based on representing the network using a polynomial and then retrieving answers to probabilistic queries by evaluating and differentiating the polynomial. The network polynomial itself is exponential in size, but we show how it can be computed efficiently using an arithmetic circuit that can be evaluated and differentiated in time and space linear in the circuit size. The proposed framework for inference subsumes one of the most influential methods for inference in Bayesian networks, known as the tree–clustering or jointree method, which provides a deeper understanding of this classical method and lifts its desirable characteristics to a much more general setting. We discuss some theoretical and practical implications of this subsumption. 1.
Exploiting the Past and the Future in Protein Secondary Structure Prediction
, 1999
"... Motivation: Predicting the secondary structure of a protein (alphahelix, betasheet, coil) is an important step towards elucidating its three dimensional structure, as well as its function. Presently, the best predictors are based on machine learning approaches, in particular neural network archite ..."
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Cited by 133 (25 self)
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Motivation: Predicting the secondary structure of a protein (alphahelix, betasheet, coil) is an important step towards elucidating its three dimensional structure, as well as its function. Presently, the best predictors are based on machine learning approaches, in particular neural network architectures with a fixed, and relatively short, input window of amino acids, centered at the prediction site. Although a fixed small window avoids overfitting problems, it does not permit to capture variable longranged information. Results: We introduce a family of novel architectures which can learn to make predictions based on variable ranges of dependencies. These architectures extend recurrent neural networks, introducing noncausal bidirectional dynamics to capture both upstream and downstream information. The prediction algorithm is completed by the use of mixtures of estimators that leverage evolutionary information, expressed in terms of multiple alignments, both at the input and output levels. While our system currently achieves an overall performance close to 76% correct predictionat least comparable to the best existing systemsthe main emphasis here is on the development of new algorithmic ideas. Availability: The executable program for predicting protein secondary structure is available from the authors free of charge. Contact: pfbaldi@ics.uci.edu, gpollast@ics.uci.edu, brunak@cbs.dtu.dk, paolo@dsi.unifi.it. 1
Control of Selective Perception Using Bayes Nets and Decision Theory
, 1993
"... A selective vision system sequentially collects evidence to support a specified hypothesis about a scene, as long as the additional evidence is worth the effort of obtaining it. Efficiency comes from processing the scene only where necessary, to the level of detail necessary, and with only the neces ..."
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Cited by 115 (2 self)
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A selective vision system sequentially collects evidence to support a specified hypothesis about a scene, as long as the additional evidence is worth the effort of obtaining it. Efficiency comes from processing the scene only where necessary, to the level of detail necessary, and with only the necessary operators. Knowledge representation and sequential decisionmaking are central issues for selective vision, which takes advantage of prior knowledge of a domain's abstract and geometrical structure and models for the expected performance and cost of visual operators. The TEA1 selective vision system uses Bayes nets for representation and benefitcost analysis for control of visual and nonvisual actions. It is the highlevel control for an active vision system, enabling purposive behavior, the use of qualitative vision modules and a pointable multiresolution sensor. TEA1 demonstrates that Bayes nets and decision theoretic techniques provide a general, reusable framework for constructi...
A Bayesian Approach to Causal Discovery
, 1997
"... We examine the Bayesian approach to the discovery of directed acyclic causal models and compare it to the constraintbased approach. Both approaches rely on the Causal Markov assumption, but the two differ significantly in theory and practice. An important difference between the approaches is that t ..."
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Cited by 93 (1 self)
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We examine the Bayesian approach to the discovery of directed acyclic causal models and compare it to the constraintbased approach. Both approaches rely on the Causal Markov assumption, but the two differ significantly in theory and practice. An important difference between the approaches is that the constraintbased approach uses categorical information about conditionalindependence constraints in the domain, whereas the Bayesian approach weighs the degree to which such constraints hold. As a result, the Bayesian approach has three distinct advantages over its constraintbased counterpart. One, conclusions derived from the Bayesian approach are not susceptible to incorrect categorical decisions about independence facts that can occur with data sets of finite size. Two, using the Bayesian approach, finer distinctions among model structuresboth quantitative and qualitativecan be made. Three, information from several models can be combined to make better inferences and to better ...
A general algorithm for approximate inference and its applciation to hybrid bayes nets
 In Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI'98
, 1998
"... The clique tree algorithm is the standard method for doing inference in Bayesian networks. It works by manipulating clique potentials — distributions over the variables in a clique. While this approach works well for many networks, it is limited by the need to maintain an exact representation of the ..."
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Cited by 89 (2 self)
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The clique tree algorithm is the standard method for doing inference in Bayesian networks. It works by manipulating clique potentials — distributions over the variables in a clique. While this approach works well for many networks, it is limited by the need to maintain an exact representation of the clique potentials. This paper presents a new unified approach that combines approximate inference and the clique tree algorithm, thereby circumventing this limitation. Many known approximate inference algorithms can be viewed as instances of this approach. The algorithm essentially does clique tree propagation, using approximate inference to estimate the densities in each clique. In many settings, the computation of the approximate clique potential can be done easily using statistical importance sampling. Iterations are used to gradually improve the quality of the estimation. 1
Coupled hidden Markov models for modeling interacting processes
, 1997
"... We present methods for coupling hidden Markov models (hmms) to model systems of multiple interacting processes. The resulting models have multiple state variables that are temporally coupled via matrices of conditional probabilities. We introduce a deterministic O(T (CN) 2 ) approximation for maxi ..."
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Cited by 76 (3 self)
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We present methods for coupling hidden Markov models (hmms) to model systems of multiple interacting processes. The resulting models have multiple state variables that are temporally coupled via matrices of conditional probabilities. We introduce a deterministic O(T (CN) 2 ) approximation for maximum a posterior (MAP) state estimation which enables fast classification and parameter estimation via expectation maximization. An "Nheads" dynamic programming algorithm samples from the highest probability paths through a compact state trellis, minimizing an upper bound on the cross entropy with the full (combinatoric) dynamic programming problem. The complexity is O(T (CN) 2 ) for C chains of N states apiece observing T data points, compared with O(TN 2C ) for naive (Cartesian product), exact (state clustering), and stochastic (Monte Carlo) methods applied to the same inference problem. In several experiments examining training time, model likelihoods, classification accuracy, and ro...
ModelBased Diagnosis using Structured System Descriptions
 Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research
, 1996
"... This paper presents a comprehensive approach for modelbased diagnosis which includes proposals for characterizing and computing preferred diagnoses, assuming that the system description is augmented with a system structure (a directed graph explicating the interconnections between system compone ..."
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Cited by 73 (10 self)
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This paper presents a comprehensive approach for modelbased diagnosis which includes proposals for characterizing and computing preferred diagnoses, assuming that the system description is augmented with a system structure (a directed graph explicating the interconnections between system components). Specifically, we first introduce the notion of a consequence, which is a syntactically unconstrained propositional sentence that characterizes all consistencybased diagnoses and show that standard characterizations of diagnoses, such as minimal conflicts, correspond to syntactic variations on a consequence. Second, we propose a new syntactic variation on the consequence known as negation normal form (NNF) and discuss its merits compared to standard variations. Third, we introduce a basic algorithm for computing consequences in NNF given a structured system description. We show that if the system structure does not contain cycles, then there is always a linearsize consequence...