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A Natural Law of Succession
, 1995
"... Consider the following problem. You are given an alphabet of k distinct symbols and are told that the i th symbol occurred exactly ni times in the past. On the basis of this information alone, you must now estimate the conditional probability that the next symbol will be i. In this report, we presen ..."
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Cited by 35 (3 self)
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Consider the following problem. You are given an alphabet of k distinct symbols and are told that the i th symbol occurred exactly ni times in the past. On the basis of this information alone, you must now estimate the conditional probability that the next symbol will be i. In this report, we present a new solution to this fundamental problem in statistics and demonstrate that our solution outperforms standard approaches, both in theory and in practice.
Inferring Sentenceinternal Temporal Relations
 In HLT 2004
, 2004
"... In this paper we propose a data intensive approach for inferring sentenceinternal temporal relations, which relies on a simple probabilistic model and assumes no manual coding. ..."
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Cited by 27 (1 self)
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In this paper we propose a data intensive approach for inferring sentenceinternal temporal relations, which relies on a simple probabilistic model and assumes no manual coding.
Binary induction and Carnap’s continuum
 In Proceedings of the 7th Workshop on Uncertainty Processing (WUPES
, 2006
"... We consider the problem of induction over languages with binary predicates and show that a natural generalization of Johnson’s Sufficientness Postulate eliminates all but two solutions. We discuss the historical context and connections to the unary case. 1 ..."
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Cited by 1 (0 self)
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We consider the problem of induction over languages with binary predicates and show that a natural generalization of Johnson’s Sufficientness Postulate eliminates all but two solutions. We discuss the historical context and connections to the unary case. 1
Pure Inductive Logic
"... Before a football match can begin the tradition is that the referee tosses a coin and one of the captains calls, heads or tails, whilst the coin is in the air. If the captain gets it right s/he picks which end to start playing at, or alternatively to have the kick off. There never seems to be an iss ..."
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Before a football match can begin the tradition is that the referee tosses a coin and one of the captains calls, heads or tails, whilst the coin is in the air. If the captain gets it right s/he picks which end to start playing at, or alternatively to have the kick off. There never seems to be an issue of which captain actually
Munich, 2012
, 2012
"... I have commonly heard philosophers say that Goodman’s GRUE Paradox, [12], [13], spells the end of Carnap’s Inductive Logic Programme, see [1], [2], [3], [4], [7], [8]. 1 That may indeed be so if one intends it to be an applied subject, to be applicable to the problem of our assigning probabilities i ..."
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I have commonly heard philosophers say that Goodman’s GRUE Paradox, [12], [13], spells the end of Carnap’s Inductive Logic Programme, see [1], [2], [3], [4], [7], [8]. 1 That may indeed be so if one intends it to be an applied subject, to be applicable to the problem of our assigning probabilities in the real world, as I suppose was Carnap’s primary aim. However as Carnap