around the world converged on Seattle with the goal of launching a new round of trade negotiations under the auspices of the World Trade Organization (WTO). This has been dubbed “WTO2000 ” in recognition of the new millennium. In light of the tremendous growth in world trade over the last fifty years— much of it fueled by multilateral trade liberalization under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), the WTO’s predecessor, many had high aspirations for this “Millennium Round. ” However, the Seattle meetings failed in the face of vigorous demonstrations by labor and environmental groups. In addition, there has been a marked lack of enthusiasm for this new round in the United States. The purpose of this paper is to provide a quantitative assessment

We have used the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to simulate the economic effects on the United States, Japan, and other major trading countries/regions of: the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations completed in 1993-94; a prospective new round of WTO multilateral trade negotiations; and a variety of regional/bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) involving the United States and Japan. We estimate that the Uruguay Round negotiations increased global economic welfare by $75.1 billion annually, with gains of $12.9 billion for the United States and $15.6 billion for Japan. An assumed reduction of all post-Uruguay Round tariffs on agricultural and industrial products and of all services barriers by 33 percent in a new WTO trade round is estimated to increase world welfare by $613.0 billion, with gains of $177.3 billion for the United States and $123.7 billion for Japan. If there were global free trade with all post-Uruguay Round trade barriers completely removed, then world welfare would increase by $1.9 trillion, with gains of $537.2 billion (5.9 percent of GNP) for the United States and $374.8 billion (5.8 percent of GNP) for Japan. Elimination of APEC-member country bilateral post-Uruguay Round tariffs on agricultural and industrial products and services barriers is estimated to increase world welfare by $764.4 billion, with gains of $294.7 billion for the United States and $283.1 billion for Japan and losses of $7.0 billion for the European Union/EFTA and $1.0 billion for South Asia. Separate bilateral FTAs involving Japan with

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This paper documents a new version of the GTAPinGAMS package which includes two global economic datasets, GTAPinGAMS and GTAP-EG, corresponding illustrative models, and several ancillary programs for dataset management. The GTAPinGAMS is a dataset based on a general GTAPv4 dataset. The GTAP-EG is the energy-economy dataset adjusted for OECD International Energy Agency (IEA) statistics. The illustrative models of the GTAPinGAMS package have been implemented as a nonlinear complementarity problem in the GAMS programming language. Having the dataset in GAMS is helpful for researchers because of its open-architecture approach which permits to modify easily the dataset and the model for their own purposes. The document contains a description and directions for installing and using the GAMSinGAMS package. ∗Development of these tools has been supported by the Electric Power Research Institute and the United States Department of Energy. The authors are indebted to Randy Wigle and Jared Carbone for their discussions and comments. The authors can be reached at:

Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research (under PN9449) and the World Bank for financial assistance. Will Trade Liberalization Harm the Environment? The Case of Indonesia to 2020

Abstract. Regional estimates of direct cost (DC) are commonly used to measure the economic damages of sea level rise. Such estimates suffer from three limitations: (i) values of threatened endowments are not well known, (ii) loss of endowments does not affect consumer prices, and (iii) international trade is disregarded. Results in this paper indicate that these limitations can significantly affect economic assessments of sea level rise. Current uncertainty regarding endowment values (as reflected in two alternative data sets), for example, leads to a 17 percent difference in coastal protection, a 36 percent difference in the amount of land protected, and a 36 percent difference in DC globally. Also, global losses in equivalent variation (EV), a welfare measure that accounts for price changes, are 13 percent higher than DC estimates. Regional EV losses may be up to 10 percent lower than regional DC, however, because international trade tends to redistribute losses from regions with relatively high damages to regions with relatively low damages. Key words: direct cost, economic impacts, equivalent variation, sea level rise

The economic impact of extending the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) to the Central and Eastern European countries has become a major issue in the European enlargement debate. This paper addresses this issue by providing an assessment of the economy-wide effects of European enlargement using a global general equilibrium model where special attention is given to modelling the instruments of the CAP and the European Unions budget. This paper differs from our earlier efforts as the analyses is now based on version 4 of the GTAP database with a more detailed agricultural commodity coverage. Furthermore the representation of the CAP and the Uruguay Round has been improved and the Agenda 2000 proposal is now explicitly dealt with.

in Asia/Pacific

This paper will appear as La Politica Agricola Comune nei modelli multisettoriali in: Giovanni Anania, edt., Valutare gli effetti della Politica agricola Comune. Lo “stato dell’arte ” dei modelli per l’analisi quantitativa degli effetti delle politiche agricole dell’Unione Europea, Edizioni Scientifiche Italiane, 2001, pp. 181 – 252. The paper reviews the multisectoral models used in the last 10 years to analyse the effects of the Common Agricultural Policy. It begins with a presentation of the theoretical structure of computable general equilibrium models, including both single-region and multi-region models. In this respect, the paper deals with the questions of disaggregation of commodities, households, regions and factors of production, as well as the issues of parameter specification and model closure. The paper then turns to the problems of modelling policies which are included in the present CAP. Firstly, there is the issue of the linkages between institutional and market prices. Secondly, there is the issue of decoupled or semi-decoupled direct payments. Thirdly, there are those related to monitoring the effects of the implementation of Uruguay Round Agreement commitments. Fourthly, there are the questions on the modelling of different policy instruments either related to the use of output, or input. The paper closes with an appraisal of the state of the art and recommends directions for future research, data needs and modelling efforts on the CAP.

norm during the late 1980s and early 1990s. While these "twin crises" have inspired a number of recent theoretical and empirical contributions to the literature on financial crises in developing economies, much less consideration has been given to analytic case studies of actual country experiences with these twin crises and their aftermath. This paper attempts to fill this gap by studying the specific case of Thailand, which was the first domino to fall, triggering the East Asian financial crisis of 1997-98. Emphasis is laid on the issue of post-crisis foreign bank entry into Thailand.