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Belief Networks Revisited
, 1994
"... this paper, Rumelhart presented compelling evidence that text comprehension must be a distributed process that combines both topdown and bottomup inferences. Strangely, this dual mode of inference, so characteristic of Bayesian analysis, did not match the capabilities of either the "certainty fact ..."
Abstract

Cited by 36 (4 self)
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this paper, Rumelhart presented compelling evidence that text comprehension must be a distributed process that combines both topdown and bottomup inferences. Strangely, this dual mode of inference, so characteristic of Bayesian analysis, did not match the capabilities of either the "certainty factors" calculus or the inference networks of PROSPECTOR  the two major contenders for uncertainty management in the 1970s. I thus began to explore the possibility of achieving distributed computation in a "pure" Bayesian framework, so as not to compromise its basic capacity to combine bidirectional inferences (i.e., predictive and abductive) . Not caring much about generality at that point, I picked the simplest structure I could think of (i.e., a tree) and tried to see if anything useful can be computed by assigning each variable a simple processor, forced to communicate only with its neighbors. This gave rise to the treepropagation algorithm reported in [15] and, a year later, the KimPearl algorithm [12], which supported not only bidirectional inferences but also intercausal interactions, such as "explainingaway." These two algorithms were described in Section 2 of Fusion.