Abstract not found

With insufficient knowledge, the conclusions made by a reasoning system are usually uncertain. If the system is open to new knowledge, it also suffers from a higher order uncertainty, because the first order uncertainty evaluations are uncertain themselves --- they can be changed by future evidence. Several approaches have been proposed for handling higher order uncertainty, including the Bayesian approach, higher-order probability, and so on. Though each of them has its advantages, none of them is satisfactory, for various reasons. A new measurement, confidence, is defined to indicate higher order uncertainty, which is understood as relative stability of first order uncertainty evaluation, and is processed accordingly. 1 Introduction Non-Axiomatic Reasoning System (NARS for short) is an intelligent reasoning system ([20, 21]). As a reasoning system, it accept knowledge from its environment in a formal language, and answer questions according to its knowledge. As an intelligent system...