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23
Yield trends are insufficient to double global crop production by 2050. PLoS One 8:e66428
, 2013
"... Several studies have shown that global crop production needs to double by 2050 to meet the projected demands from rising population, diet shifts, and increasing biofuels consumption. Boosting crop yields to meet these rising demands, rather than clearing more land for agriculture has been highlighte ..."
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Several studies have shown that global crop production needs to double by 2050 to meet the projected demands from rising population, diet shifts, and increasing biofuels consumption. Boosting crop yields to meet these rising demands, rather than clearing more land for agriculture has been highlighted as a preferred solution to meet this goal. However, we first need to understand how crop yields are changing globally, and whether we are on track to double production by 2050. Using,2.5 million agricultural statistics, collected for,13,500 political units across the world, we track four key global crops—maize, rice, wheat, and soybean—that currently produce nearly two-thirds of global agricultural calories. We find that yields in these top four crops are increasing at 1.6%, 1.0%, 0.9%, and 1.3 % per year, non-compounding rates, respectively, which is less than the 2.4 % per year rate required to double global production by 2050. At these rates global production in these crops would increase by,67%,,42%,,38%, and,55%, respectively, which is far below what is needed to meet projected demands in 2050. We present detailed maps to identify where rates must be increased to boost crop production and meet rising demands.
Literature Review
"... The purpose of the current study is to determine whether significant correlations exist between exposure to community violence and urban children's behavioral and academic attitudes and functioning. ..."
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The purpose of the current study is to determine whether significant correlations exist between exposure to community violence and urban children's behavioral and academic attitudes and functioning.
Varis O. From food insufficiency towards trade dependency: a historical analysis of global food availability
- PLoS One. 2013; 8 (12):e82714. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone. 0082714 PMID: 24367545
"... Achieving global food security is one of the major challenges of the coming decades. In order to tackle future food security challenges we must understand the past. This study presents a historical analysis of global food availability, one of the key elements of food security. By calculating nationa ..."
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Achieving global food security is one of the major challenges of the coming decades. In order to tackle future food security challenges we must understand the past. This study presents a historical analysis of global food availability, one of the key elements of food security. By calculating national level dietary energy supply and production for nine time steps during 1965–2005 we classify countries based on their food availability, food self-sufficiency and food trade. We also look at how diets have changed during this period with regard to supply of animal based calories. Our results show that food availability has increased substantially both in absolute and relative terms. The percentage of population living in countries with sufficient food supply (.2500 kcal/cap/d) has almost doubled from 33 % in 1965 to 61 % in 2005. The population living with critically low food supply (,2000 kcal/cap/d) has dropped from 52 % to 3%. Largest improvements are seen in the MENA region, Latin America, China and Southeast Asia. Besides, the composition of diets has changed considerably within the study period: the world population living with high supply of animal source food (.15 % of dietary energy supply) increased from 33 % to over 50%. While food supply has increased globally, food self-sufficiency (domestic production.2500 kcal/cap/ d) has not changed remarkably. In the beginning of the study period insufficient domestic production meant insufficient food supply, but in recent years the deficit has been increasingly compensated by rising food imports. This highlights the growing importance of food trade, either for food supply in importing countries or as a source of income for exporters. Our
Farmed areas predict the distribution of amphibian ponds in a traditional rural landscape. PLoS One 8
, 2013
"... Abstract Background: Traditional rural landscapes of Eastern Europe are undergoing major changes due to agricultural intensification, land abandonment, change in agricultural practices and infrastructural development. Small man-made ponds are important yet vulnerable components of rural landscapes. ..."
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Abstract Background: Traditional rural landscapes of Eastern Europe are undergoing major changes due to agricultural intensification, land abandonment, change in agricultural practices and infrastructural development. Small man-made ponds are important yet vulnerable components of rural landscapes. Despite their important role for biodiversity, these ponds tend to be excluded from conservation strategies.
Global Agricultural Land Resources – A High Resolution Suitability Evaluation and Its Perspectives until 2100 under Climate Change Conditions
, 2014
"... Changing natural conditions determine the land’s suitability for agriculture. The growing demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy increases pressure on land and causes trade-offs between different uses of land and ecosystem services. Accordingly, an inventory is required on the changing potential ..."
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Changing natural conditions determine the land’s suitability for agriculture. The growing demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy increases pressure on land and causes trade-offs between different uses of land and ecosystem services. Accordingly, an inventory is required on the changing potentially suitable areas for agriculture under changing climate conditions. We applied a fuzzy logic approach to compute global agricultural suitability to grow the 16 most important food and energy crops according to the climatic, soil and topographic conditions at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. We present our results for current climate conditions (1981–2010), considering today’s irrigated areas and separately investigate the suitability of densely forested as well as protected areas, in order to investigate their potentials for agriculture. The impact of climate change under SRES A1B conditions, as simulated by the global climate model ECHAM5, on agricultural suitability is shown by comparing the time-period 2071–2100 with 1981–2010. Our results show that climate change will expand suitable cropland by additionally 5.6 million km2, particularly in the Northern high latitudes (mainly in Canada, China and Russia). Most sensitive regions with decreasing suitability are found in the Global South, mainly in tropical regions, where also the suitability for multiple cropping decreases.
Affordable nutrient solutions for improved food security as evidenced by crop trials. PLoS One 2013
"... The continuing depletion of nutrients from agricultural soils in Sub-Saharan African is accompanied by a lack of substantial progress in crop yield improvement. In this paper we investigate yield gaps for corn under two scenarios: a micro-dosing scenario with marginal increases in nitrogen (N) and p ..."
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The continuing depletion of nutrients from agricultural soils in Sub-Saharan African is accompanied by a lack of substantial progress in crop yield improvement. In this paper we investigate yield gaps for corn under two scenarios: a micro-dosing scenario with marginal increases in nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) of 10 kg ha21 and a larger yet still conservative scenario with proposed N and P applications of 80 and 20 kg ha21 respectively. The yield gaps are calculated from a database of historical FAO crop fertilizer trials at 1358 locations for Sub-Saharan Africa and South America. Our approach allows connecting experimental field scale data with continental policy recommendations. Two critical findings emerged from the analysis. The first is the degree to which P limits increases in corn yields. For example, under a micro-dosing scenario, in Africa, the addition of small amounts of N alone resulted in mean yield increases of 8 % while the addition of only P increased mean yields by 26%, with implications for designing better balanced fertilizer distribution schemes. The second finding was the relatively large amount of yield increase possible for a small, yet affordable amount of fertilizer application. Using African and South American fertilizer prices we show that the level of investment needed to achieve these results is considerably less than 1 % of Agricultural GDP for both a micro-dosing scenario and for the scenario involving higher yet still conservative fertilizer application rates. In the latter scenario realistic mean yield increases ranged between 28 to 85 % in South America and 71 to 190 % in Africa (mean plus one standard deviation). External investment in this low technology
How Does Climate Change Alter Agricultural Strategies to Support Food Security?
, 2014
"... policy solutions to sustainably end hunger and malnutrition and reduce poverty. The Institute conducts research, communicates results, optimizes partnerships, and builds capacity to ensure sustainable food production, promote healthy food systems, improve markets and trade, transform agriculture, bu ..."
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policy solutions to sustainably end hunger and malnutrition and reduce poverty. The Institute conducts research, communicates results, optimizes partnerships, and builds capacity to ensure sustainable food production, promote healthy food systems, improve markets and trade, transform agriculture, build resilience, and strengthen institutions and governance. Gender is considered in all of the Institute’s work. IFPRI collaborates with partners around the world, including development implementers, public institutions, the private sector, and farmers ’ organizations, to ensure that local, national, regional, and global food policies are based on evidence. CGIAR RESEARCH PROGRAM ON POLICIES, INSTITUTIONS, AND MARKETS The CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) leads action-oriented research to equip decisionmakers with the evidence required to develop food and agricultural policies that better serve the interests of poor producers and consumers, both men and women. PIM combines the resources
Habitat heterogeneity and anuran community of an agroecosystem in the Pantanal of Brazil
, 2014
"... Habitat heterogeneity and anuran community of an agroecosystem in Pantanal, Brazil. The Pantanal of central Brazil has experienced considerable modifications as a result of growing land use. The association between anuran assemblage and the local habitat structure of an agroecosystem in central Braz ..."
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Habitat heterogeneity and anuran community of an agroecosystem in Pantanal, Brazil. The Pantanal of central Brazil has experienced considerable modifications as a result of growing land use. The association between anuran assemblage and the local habitat structure of an agroecosystem in central Brazil at the Pantanal is described. It is shown that the structure of the anuran community is reestablished within the new environmental dynamics in such human-modified habitat. Twenty-four anuran species were recorded in the area. The community was dominated by four species (Dendropsophus nanus, Leptodactylus chaquensis, Hypsiboas raniceps, and Rhinella cf. bergi), which accounted for more than 50 % of the sampled individuals. The species distribution pattern was adjusted to the logarithmic, log-normal, and broken stick models, partially reflecting its association with agroecosystem characteristics. Habitat heterogeneity contributes to the anuran community at a local scale, thereby emphasizing the importance of maintaining distinct habitats for anuran species in the Pantanal as a management practice, even in in situations in which anthropic actions are predictable, as in agroecosystems.
